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Prospectus Hit List for June 5



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 4 Hit List for June 6
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

If the Nationals are in first place 15 games from today, they just might coast to October.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

28

28

28.6

29.1

28.8

.511

.531

8.7%

47.6%

56.3%

-1.2%

7.1%

A run off Ervin Santana should only count as 0.7 runs, otherwise it's unfair to the Angels.
2

31

23

29.0

28.1

28.9

.542

.562

18.9%

33.9%

52.8%

-0.4%

-15.0%

Rays DHs are hitting .234/.284/.396. Why didn't they offer a minor league deal to Manny again?
3

31

23

27.6

28.6

28.4

.535

.515

33.9%

26.8%

60.6%

-2.4%

13.4%

We need some dead fish jokes in our pockets for small talk in case all the fish in the tanks at Marlins Park die. 'This place smells like a thousand fish just died' isn't going to cut it.
4

28

26

29.1

29.0

29.1

.533

.553

27.2%

26.4%

53.5%

-0.4%

12.2%

More surprising: that Felix Doubront leads the Red Sox pitching staff in strikeouts, or that he leads it by a lot: 18 more than Jon Lester and 20 more than Josh Beckett.
5

29

25

28.8

27.4

27.5

.521

.501

32.3%

26.0%

58.3%

1.2%

6.7%

I was going to tell you all about Martin Prado and how his .400 OBP is the highest on the team, but you already knew that, didn't you?
6

29

24

28.9

28.8

28.4

.543

.563

50.4%

25.2%

75.6%

-1.6%

2.4%

Earlier this season, Joe Girardi listened to his binder a bit too closely and sent it in to pitch against the White Sox. It gave up two runs but did strike out Adam Dunn.
7

30

22

29.2

32.2

31.2

.590

.570

16.9%

23.2%

40.2%

-0.4%

-6.7%

You want to see a team sink or swim? Here's your chance. Today marks the beginning of 15 games against the Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Rays.
8

30

23

28.9

26.1

26.2

.524

.505

40.6%

20.5%

61.0%

-2.8%

-2.4%

In the last month, Joey Votto has hit .404/.509/.745. You're not even a pitcher and you're scared.
9

31

24

28.3

29.9

29.4

.539

.519

41.3%

20.1%

61.4%

5.9%

20.5%

How to score runs the Giants way: Step 1: Put hitters with sub-.300 OBPs in first two spots in the lineup. Step 2: ... Step 3: Score runs!
10

28

27

32.4

33.9

32.5

.576

.557

45.7%

18.9%

64.6%

4.3%

-22.4%

Three surprising things about the Cardinals beating the Mets 5-4: 1) The Cardinals were tied for the worst record in one-run games yesterday; 2) 0-3 against the Mets on the season; and 3) 0-3 in June.
11

34

21

31.4

33.0

32.4

.594

.575

50.8%

18.5%

69.3%

8.7%

-12.6%

The Dodgers have Juan RIvera (.244/.272/.349) hitting cleanup. Also, somehow, the Dodgers are still in first place.
12

28

25

24.0

26.4

26.8

.497

.517

18.5%

16.9%

35.4%

-0.4%

-16.5%

Do you think the Indians ever wake up in the morning and think, "We miss the steadying hand of Eric Wedge"?
13

24

30

24.8

24.8

24.3

.453

.433

11.8%

16.1%

28.0%

3.1%

7.5%

The Mariners have been hit by three pitches, the fewest in baseball. The Brewers have been hit by 33, the most. Wha, youz done like beeah?
14

25

29

25.5

25.5

25.7

.471

.491

18.9%

13.8%

32.7%

3.9%

-2.8%

A third of the way through their schedule, the Tigers have been outscored. Not many World Series contenders can say that.
15

30

24

27.0

27.1

27.8

.518

.538

1.6%

13.4%

15.0%

1.6%

-3.5%

Three game series in early June aren't normally season changers, but three in Boston could be just the thing to get a slip-sliding team back on track, or send it back whence it came.
16

31

23

31.2

32.5

32.6

.590

.609

61.8%

11.8%

73.6%

0.0%

15.4%

Since Phil Humber's perfect game, he's been perfect if you don't count the 30 runs he's given up in 37 innings.
17

28

28

28.7

29.1

28.7

.511

.491

9.1%

11.8%

20.9%

-6.7%

-13.0%

Beginning next season, Cliff Lee will make $25 million in each of three years. Then he'll make $27.5 million. That is, unless the Phillies buy him out for $12.5 million.
18

31

24

26.8

26.6

26.6

.504

.484

7.9%

9.8%

17.7%

0.4%

9.1%

The Mets have been the third worst homer-hitting team in baseball. How bad is that? Jason Bay, who has played in 15 games all season, none since April 23, is tied for fifth on the team with three home runs.
19

25

30

25.4

26.8

27.2

.474

.454

7.5%

6.7%

14.2%

-10.2%

-2.0%

With his team struggling, this is a bad time for Justin Upton to misplace 200 points of slugging percentage. Check behind the toaster!
20

28

26

29.3

27.1

27.5

.518

.538

2.0%

5.5%

7.5%

0.4%

2.4%

Him: Ricky Romero may have a 4.04 ERA, but dagblumit, he's an ace. I mean, he's in the front of the rotation. What else you going to call that, stat geek? Me: A pitcher.
21

32

23

34.2

37.0

36.5

.635

.653

91.3%

5.1%

96.5%

-2.8%

-2.4%

Josh Hamilton is hitting .154/.267/.231 since June 1st. Since two days ago he's hitting .125/.125/.125 and since yesterday he's hitting .000/.000/.000. Some MVP this guy is.
22

24

30

26.5

23.1

22.4

.445

.425

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

-0.8%

0.8%

Christian Friedrich has started exactly six games and averaged exactly six innings per start and averaged exactly one strikeout per inning. Oh, and his uniform number? 53.
23

27

26

23.1

21.8

22.1

.443

.424

2.0%

0.8%

2.8%

-0.4%

1.6%

The Pirates strike out in about a quarter of their plate appearances. That's 11 times for every homer they hit, four times for every walk they take, and 43 times for every triple or hit-by-pitch.
24

24

31

24.4

20.9

21.3

.412

.431

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

Jarrod Parker almost no-hit the Rangers, the highest-scoring lineup in baseball. And that still isn't quite as impressive as the A's scoring eight runs in an inning.
25

18

37

20.2

20.8

21.5

.365

.347

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

The Padres team OPS is 15 points higher than the last-place Pirates. So the Padres can be happy that they're better than one of the worst offenses in the past 50 years.
26

25

32

28.6

26.4

26.7

.468

.488

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Mariners scored eight runs via 10 hits and eight walks. Ichiro was the only player not to reach base. He went 0-for-5 out of the leadoff spot.
27

23

31

25.5

23.4

24.0

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Considering some picked them to be the worst team ever and they're only just bad, the Astros are having a remarkably successful season.
28

21

33

20.0

21.1

20.9

.384

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Morneau has only 34 hits, but 10 are home runs and 10 are doubles. So he's having a ... good (?) season?
29

18

36

21.3

22.3

22.8

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Let's play the Cubs game! Now, remember, it's the Cubs game, so all answers are "The Cubs." First question: what franchise is capable of losing a game because their star shortstop forgot how many outs there were?
30

23

30

23.9

23.8

23.9

.446

.466

0.8%

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

When the Twins score 10 on you, you know you're the Royals.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
dougcox

The Braves next 18 games are against MIA, TOR, NYY (6 games), BOS, BAL, so I think all NL East teams have a tough 3 week stretch. The only NL East team with an easier schedule is Philly, who plays MIN instead of NYY.

Jun 05, 2012 09:41 AM
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newsense

Didn't the Cards win 5-4?

Jun 05, 2012 10:41 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Yup. Sorry about that. I'll fix it straight away.

Jun 05, 2012 13:16 PM
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rweiler

I've complained as much as anybody about Bruce Bochy's love for putting low OBP hitter's a the top of the lineup, but it appears that this year, the hitters have outfoxed him has Blanco has an OBP near .400 and Ryan Theriot has been barely adequate over the last week or so. Apparently there is a new baseball phrase, 'lengthening the lineup' which has been coined in the last few years to put a positive spin on the theory that loading the top of the lineup with low OBP hitters increases run production. Mathematically, it makes no sense at all.

Jun 05, 2012 11:10 AM
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