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Prospectus Hit List for June 4



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 1 Hit List for June 5
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

What the Cubs need to do and why we think they can do it.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

28

27

28.3

28.4

28.1

.513

.533

9.4%

49.6%

59.1%

1.2%

10.6%

Is Ernesto Frieri the Aroldis Chapman of the American League? Well, "Ernesto" is about as cool a name as "Aroldis" and both are from interesting countries... wait. Did you think I meant pitching?
2

25

29

25.4

26.8

27.2

.483

.463

12.2%

9.8%

22.0%

6.7%

2.4%

If you don't count their losses, the Diamondbacks are undefeated.
3

29

25

28.8

27.4

27.5

.521

.501

39.4%

22.8%

62.2%

9.4%

1.2%

Of the 47 games he's played in, Freddie Freeman has struck out in 32 of them. Adam Dunn sent him a bat with a hole in it and a note that said, "Keep working, kid."
4

30

24

27.0

27.1

27.8

.518

.538

3.1%

7.9%

11.0%

-5.9%

-12.6%

Sometimes the universe opens itself up and just for a second the planets align to make the Orioles look like a contender. Then they lose 10 of 13 and the starting centerfielder who just signed the biggest contract in team history has to have an MRI on his wrist. Orioles baseball, everyone.
5

28

26

29.1

29.0

29.1

.533

.553

21.7%

26.4%

48.0%

-0.8%

3.5%

Yay! Daniel Bard gave up only two hits in yesterday's start (ignore that he walked six, hit two batters, gave up five runs, and threw two to the backstop, all in 1 2/3 innings)!
6

31

23

31.2

32.5

32.6

.590

.609

61.8%

11.4%

73.2%

2.0%

21.7%

Yeah, Chris Sale has been really good, but let’s talk about what’s really important: why would a team called the White Sox wear red hats?
7

18

35

20.9

22.1

22.7

.395

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chicago’s best chance to become a good team in future seasons is losing every single game left on their schedule. Strangely, this is one thing the team might be able to accomplish.
8

30

23

28.9

26.1

26.2

.524

.504

42.9%

23.2%

66.1%

-5.5%

-0.0%

Bronson Arroyo is doing many things right this season, but mostly it's one thing: no walks. Arroyo is walking 1.3 batters per nine innings, best in the National League. Also, you can't knock a 35-year-old with long hair. Can't be done and I won't hear of it.
9

28

25

24.0

26.4

26.8

.497

.517

25.2%

15.4%

40.6%

-0.8%

-6.3%

Good news, everyone! In his last 10 games, Johnny Damon's batting average has gone up eight points!
10

23

30

25.7

22.1

21.5

.436

.416

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

0.4%

-0.4%

Today in Pointless Stats: the Rockies lead the league in blown saves.
11

25

29

25.5

25.5

25.7

.471

.491

11.8%

14.2%

26.0%

-5.1%

-14.6%

Justin Verlander not only lost his third consecutive start, something he hadn't done since 2008, but he was outpitched by Phil Hughes. This is a Ferrari losing to your neighbor’s '83 Mustang, up on blocks since it came from the showroom, in a drag race.
12

23

31

25.5

23.4

24.0

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Commissioner: "With the first pick in the draft, the Houston Astros select... Bryce Harper, outfielder, Washington Nationals." Jeff Luhnow [heard off mic]: "And Stephen Strasburg, too!"
13

23

29

23.7

23.7

23.9

.453

.473

0.8%

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.4%

The Royals are one of three teams, Boston and Houston being the others, that has yet to win an extra-inning game.
14

33

21

30.7

32.3

31.6

.591

.571

45.7%

18.9%

64.6%

-5.5%

-16.5%

The Dodgers are basically the Pirates with Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, and nicer uniforms.
15

31

23

27.6

28.6

28.4

.535

.515

28.3%

22.8%

51.2%

-1.6%

15.0%

Carlos Zambrano homered. The Marlins are tied for first place. My cat learned how to fly. One of those statements is false and if you asked me before the season started, I'd have chosen incorrectly.
16

24

30

24.8

24.8

24.3

.453

.433

9.4%

13.8%

23.2%

-4.7%

-0.4%

Rickie Weeks is hitting .170, Ryan Braun is hurt, and Prince Fielder took his talents to Detroit. But that's all okay because Opening Day is just 10 months away!
17

20

33

19.1

20.1

20.0

.374

.393

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

Being the worst at something is as difficult to accomplish as being the best. It takes effort and luck to achieve degrees of separation from the center. Which direction you go in is just semantics. Go Twins!
18

29

24

28.9

28.8

28.4

.543

.563

48.8%

27.2%

76.0%

7.1%

5.5%

In April, Derek Jeter hit .389. In May he hit .293, and so far in June he's hitting .333. He's hitting .318 over his past 10 games and has six homers after hitting six all last season. Does he know he's 37?
19

31

23

26.4

26.2

26.2

.508

.488

6.7%

16.5%

23.2%

5.9%

9.4%

It's amazing how even losing a fortune to a ponzi scheme can be swept under the rug by winning.
20

23

31

22.6

19.4

19.7

.392

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-1.2%

That anyone continues to follow the A's is a remarkable triumph of the human spirit.
21

28

27

28.3

28.8

28.4

.516

.496

12.2%

18.5%

30.7%

-0.8%

-0.4%

When Carlos Ruiz sits, you can make a credible argument that Juan Pierre is the best hitter in the Phillies lineup.
22

27

26

23.1

21.8

22.1

.443

.424

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-1.2%

-2.4%

The Pirates four homers were a season high, but the team has hit three homers in a game three times this season.
23

18

37

20.2

20.8

21.5

.365

.347

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You might guess because of the park they play in that the Padres would be last in the National League in slugging percentage. You'd be right.
24

24

32

27.9

26.0

26.3

.465

.485

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

A pitcher is credited with a game finished when he's the last reliever in a game. The Mariners lead the league in this stat that I swear MLB just made up, with 55. League leaders!
25

30

24

27.7

29.0

28.6

.534

.514

41.7%

14.2%

55.9%

8.3%

17.7%

Barry Zito threw 8 1/3 innings of shutout ball to drop his ERA under 3.00, to 2.98. Somehow this makes the seasons Bryan LaHair and Albert Pujols are having a bit easier to take.
26

27

27

31.8

33.2

31.9

.574

.554

47.6%

18.5%

66.1%

0.4%

-9.8%

In three games in New York, the Cardinals were outscored 19-1. Should've signed Albert Pujols!
27

31

23

29.0

28.1

28.9

.542

.562

25.6%

34.3%

59.8%

4.3%

-7.5%

Since giving up eight runs to Oakland on May 6, Matt Moore has given up nine runs in 28 innings while striking out 34. It's not too late to undo that fantasy trade! (Yes it is!)
28

32

22

34.8

37.2

36.9

.652

.670

90.6%

9.1%

99.6%

1.2%

0.0%

Michael Young is a professional hitter. I know this not because he's hitting .288 this season or because he hit .338 last season, but because he draws a paycheck for his services.
29

28

26

29.3

27.1

27.5

.518

.538

0.8%

4.3%

5.1%

-3.5%

-0.4%

Ballpark obviously has a lot to do with it, but the Blue Jays now have barely half as many doubles (75) as the team they played this weekend, the Red Sox, who have 140.
30

30

22

29.2

32.2

31.3

.590

.571

13.4%

19.7%

33.1%

-11.8%

-15.7%

Bryce Harper hit a cannon of a homer, is hitting .288/.380/.542 on the season and has a beard. Has anyone checked his birth certificate?

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


10 comments have been left for this article.
TGisriel

Note that 5 of the top 10 are in the AL East.

Jun 04, 2012 09:11 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I like that our top five are all in different divisions. Only the NL Central isn't represented.

Jun 04, 2012 09:19 AM
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newsense

The White Sox can wear red hats because it's all about the sox!

Jun 04, 2012 09:41 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

They look good, I'm not denying that, but it's an odd color choice considering 1) it's not part of the team color scheme, and 2) there is another team called the Red Sox.

Jun 04, 2012 09:55 AM
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boards

Maybe it's because I started watching baseball in the early seventies, but I really like those "White" Sox unis. Of course, I also love the Astros technicolor yawn unis also so what do I know?

Jun 04, 2012 11:15 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I don't hate the uniforms, I just think they don't make any sense. The Astros 'technicolor' uniforms I hate.

Jun 04, 2012 11:59 AM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

"That anyone continues to follow the A's is a remarkable triumph of the human spirit."

Thanks!

Jun 04, 2012 11:13 AM
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pobothecat

Yeah, what Jason said. I actually think they're one of the most interesting organizations in baseball.

Jun 04, 2012 11:52 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Interesting from an analytical standpoint, but from a fan-standpoint I'd find them pretty frustrating to follow. But then that's just me.

Jun 04, 2012 11:58 AM
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stevebro

I'm just glad the White Sox are not wearing red shorts.

Jun 04, 2012 11:17 AM
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