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Prospectus Hit List for June 1



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 31 Hit List for June 4
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Everything the Rays do is just so smart!

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

31

20

33.1

35.1

34.7

.656

.674

95.7%

4.3%

100.0%

2.0%

1.6%

After giving up 21 runs, the Rangers dropped from second in the American League in runs allowed to fourth. That'll show 'em!
2

27

24

32.0

33.1

31.9

.608

.589

52.4%

21.7%

74.0%

-8.3%

-12.6%

Carlos Beltran returns to New York to face the Mets for the first time since being traded. I'm sure that will go well.
3

32

19

30.1

31.0

30.4

.605

.586

60.6%

11.0%

71.7%

-2.4%

-9.4%

Matt Kemp is the Conan O'Brien of baseball, brilliant for a short period of time before unceremoniously disappearing. The Dodgers will start Jay Leno in center field during Kemp's absence.
4

29

22

29.4

30.7

30.9

.588

.607

56.7%

14.6%

71.3%

2.0%

29.1%

Adam Dunn is striking out in 37 percent of his plate appearances, a rate both above his career high and higher than any baseball player has posted since 2000. Maybe I could go even farther back, but I have to get some sleep tonight.
5

29

21

28.1

30.8

29.8

.588

.568

13.4%

17.7%

31.1%

-0.8%

-1.6%

Stephen Strasburg will face Mike Minor tonight. If his ERA is to be believed, Minor would allow seven runs per nine innings. If his ERA is to be believed, Steven Strasburg would need to pitch 24 innings to give up that many.
6

29

22

26.6

26.9

27.7

.540

.560

23.6%

36.2%

59.8%

3.1%

-3.9%

It's funny how when the Rays do something it just seems smarter. Take this for example: Rays catchers (and pitchers) have given up successful stolen bases on 83 percent of the attempts. Eh, they probably did it on purpose.
7

27

23

26.6

26.8

26.6

.535

.555

46.5%

21.3%

67.7%

-7.1%

2.4%

In 28 1/3 innings, Andy Pettitte has walked five and given up six homers. A suggestion: ask the hitters if they're going to hit a homer and if they say yes, walk them.
8

26

25

27.2

27.4

27.5

.530

.550

22.8%

25.6%

48.4%

-0.8%

-3.5%

Last year, at age 35, Scott Podsednik had roughly a .700 OPS for two Triple-A teams. This year he posted a .493 OPS in Triple-A and was traded. He's now hitting .444/.444/.722 for Boston. Duh.
9

27

25

27.1

28.0

27.4

.527

.507

22.4%

26.8%

49.2%

11.0%

19.7%

A friendly reminder: the first year of Ryan Howard's five-year, $125 million contract, signed two years and a month ago, has begun.
10

28

24

27.8

26.7

26.7

.525

.505

34.6%

22.4%

57.1%

-0.8%

-15.0%

To many, a stereotype is something a man must confound and break free from to be his own person. The Braves feel similarly, and therefore have the worst ERA for starting pitchers in baseball. Take that, stereotype!
11

29

22

25.7

26.4

25.9

.525

.505

26.8%

24.8%

51.6%

0.0%

12.2%

Nobody would describe Jose Reyes as a power hitter, but the fact that he has yet to hit a home run has to be a surprise.
12

27

24

28.2

25.7

26.0

.524

.544

2.0%

5.9%

7.9%

-2.0%

-1.6%

Does anyone really think that bringing in Vlad Guerrero will help the Blue Jays? I mean, Scott Podsednik, sure, but Vlad Guerrero?
13

29

22

26.3

25.4

26.0

.523

.543

5.1%

9.8%

15.0%

3.5%

-9.4%

Over the past two weeks, Matt Wieters has hit .091/.225/.091 for an OPS+ of -8. Yes, it took him two weeks, but Matt Wieters has broken OPS+.
14

27

24

25.7

27.1

26.7

.522

.502

29.9%

15.4%

45.3%

-3.5%

1.2%

Melky Cabrera is on pace for 20 triples.
15

28

22

27.0

24.5

24.7

.521

.501

35.0%

26.8%

61.8%

3.1%

-2.0%

Aroldis Champman is fourth on the Reds in strikeouts behind three pitchers who have each thrown, on average, 250 percent of the innings he has.
16

26

26

27.0

27.7

27.0

.518

.538

4.3%

49.2%

53.5%

-5.1%

7.1%

With each passing day, it looks progressively more insane that the Angels kept Mike Trout in Triple-A as long as they did.
17

27

23

22.5

24.5

25.2

.496

.516

25.6%

15.4%

40.9%

5.5%

-26.4%

The Indians are 10-2 in one-run games because they're a team that thrives under pressure. They're 17-21 in all other games because, really, who cares?
18

24

27

24.9

24.5

24.6

.480

.500

17.7%

16.9%

34.6%

-0.4%

5.5%

Max Scherzer has 78 strikeouts and only 21 walks in 60 innings and yet a 5.55 ERA. He's accomplished the rare feat of being both unhittable and hittable simultaneously.
19

28

23

23.0

23.1

22.8

.475

.455

2.8%

5.5%

8.3%

-1.6%

0.4%

It could be argued that having a moderately successful season and re-signing David Wright to a long contract could be the worst thing that could happen to the Mets.
20

23

28

23.7

24.8

25.3

.474

.455

8.3%

6.7%

15.0%

-3.5%

-2.0%

True, the Diamondbacks are nine games out, but the Dodgers are falling and Arizona is only four games behind San Francisco. Maybe this isn't over quite yet.
21

23

30

26.7

25.0

24.9

.470

.490

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.4%

0.4%

The Mariners scored 21 runs two days ago. We all know they're getting shut out tonight, right?
22

23

28

23.6

23.5

23.3

.458

.438

11.8%

20.5%

32.3%

6.3%

7.5%

If you weren't paying attention, you missed a chance to buy a Chorizo lawn ornament at auction from the Brewers website. So yeah, you screwed up.
23

21

28

22.4

22.0

22.4

.448

.468

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

The All-Star game is coming to Kansas City and that means there is one thing Royals fans may have to get used to. Namely, there is a distinct possibility that the home team will win.
24

22

29

24.4

22.0

22.5

.446

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are so excited to be rid of Carlos Lee's $18.5 million annual salary that they’re planning a huge party. Said GM Jeff Luhnow, “Everyone’s invited. The fans, the media, foreign dignitaries, everyone.” Asked how much the party would cost, Luhnow said, “About $17.5 million. We’re saving a million bucks!”
25

25

25

21.2

19.9

20.4

.432

.413

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

-0.8%

0.8%

The Pirates are on pace to score 480 runs, just so you know which game to immediately change to when you see the words "no-hitter" pop up on Twitter.
26

21

29

23.5

20.5

19.6

.423

.404

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

0.8%

1.2%

Not only did Carlos Gonzalez hit four home runs in four consecutive plate appearances against four different pitchers, but he hit four different pitches as well. In order: a changeup, a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a two-seam fastball.
27

18

32

20.0

21.1

21.8

.405

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Theo Epstein has already made two trades. He dealt his red stapler to San Francisco for a paper shredder and a nice artist's pen, and then dealt the pen to Texas for a box of no. 2 pencils.
28

22

29

20.9

18.2

18.6

.391

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-1.6%

Josh Reddick's .880 OPS is the highest on the team by 115 points. Solution? Mullets for everyone!
29

18

32

17.6

19.1

19.0

.369

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You don't get to be 18-32 without multiple problems, but here's one: the Twins have used nine starting pitchers, only three of whom have an ERA+ over 74.
30

17

35

18.9

19.8

20.6

.367

.348

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.4%

It must be tough to sell the Padres to San Diego. "Hey everyone, ignore the natural beauty, the amazing beaches, the mountains, and the ocean, and come see a terrible team play incredibly poorly."

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
jrbdmb

Informal poll for Mets fans: acording to Jeremy Schapp on ESPN last night, the only thing New Yorkers remember about Beltran is how he took the called third strike against Adam Wainwright, ending the 2006 NLCS.

Is this typical substandard reporting on Schapp's part, or are Mets fans really that myopic?

Jun 01, 2012 12:42 PM
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Buford

Don't forget that earlier this week, the Rays hit AJ Pierzynski with a retaliation pitch (for sliding too hard into 2nd base the day before) then he later scored that same inning.

And the Rays lost by one run 4-3.

But you're right, the Rays are smart. Intentionally putting a man on base in a close game is smart because they got their revenge ASAP...at the cost of a game.


Jun 01, 2012 12:59 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

That was my point. The Rays have a reputation as incredibly smart (which they are) but everyone makes mistakes and their mistakes are sometimes seen through that lens.

Jun 01, 2012 14:25 PM
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