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Prospectus Hit List for May 30



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 29 Hit List for May 31
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

There are signs of life in the AL West.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

20

28

21.6

21.1

21.6

.439

.459

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

If he won't go by William, Royals starter Will Smith should at least have the decency to be terrible, thereby limiting the amount of Fresh Prince jokes we all have to endure.
2

22

27

24.9

21.8

22.3

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The chances that Houston is really a bad team masquerading as a mediocre one are strong, but the chances that they're historically awful are getting slimmer by the day.
3

17

32

16.8

18.2

18.3

.359

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twins relievers have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball but the third-lowest walk rate. Twins relievers are the little league parents of baseball. "Here it comes... OK, junior, swing!"
4

17

32

19.2

20.7

21.5

.400

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

35,219 fans turned out to watch the second-worst team in baseball defeat the worst team in baseball. Cubs fans are either the absolute best or the absolute worst.
5

22

28

20.9

18.2

18.7

.399

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.2%

The miracle of the hold statistic is that a team can accumulate them while losing. The A's, for example, blew a two-run lead in the ninth to lose but still got two holds. Oakland is tied for 23rd in holds, which is the problem. More holds, please!
6

17

34

18.6

19.1

20.0

.366

.348

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With the idea that sometimes things really are as bad as they seem, I present The Padres as a Mystery novel: "I did it." "Yup."
7

22

30

24.7

23.2

23.4

.448

.468

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%

A team on a five-game losing streak with Jason Vargas on the mound is facing the best hitting team in baseball on a four-game winning streak? That's just a reverse lock right there.
8

24

25

20.6

19.3

19.9

.428

.408

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

-2.0%

-1.2%

The most dangerous possibility for opposing pitchers when facing the Pirates offense is dehydration due to excessive drooling.
9

19

29

21.2

18.7

18.0

.401

.382

0.8%

0.0%

0.8%

0.4%

0.4%

Jason Giambi is 41 and has a .440 on-base percentage. I am 36 and have no percentages to speak of.
10

26

24

27.3

24.4

25.0

.514

.534

1.6%

4.3%

5.9%

1.6%

-2.8%

Things You Didn't Know: The Blue Jays have scored the fourth-most runs in baseball.
11

28

22

22.9

22.9

22.4

.481

.461

2.8%

7.5%

10.2%

2.8%

0.0%

The Mets got two home runs from the ninth spot in the order. I'm willing to bet all your money that's never happened before.
12

26

25

26.6

26.9

26.2

.518

.538

5.5%

50.0%

55.5%

-0.8%

22.0%

The Angels have won eight in a row and are 5 1/2 games behind Texas with 111 games left to go. Still think the race is over?
13

21

28

21.9

21.9

21.5

.440

.421

6.3%

14.6%

20.9%

-0.4%

2.8%

Welcome to Building Narratives From One Stat! In 2010 with Kansas City, Zack Greinke struck out 7.2 batters per nine. Then he came to Milwaukee, where he's since struck out 10.3 per nine. Therefore, Zack Greinke hated Kansas City! Yay!
14

29

21

26.2

25.6

26.2

.535

.555

6.3%

9.4%

15.7%

0.4%

-18.1%

Adam Jones celebrated his new contract by going 3-for-3 with two walks, two homers and an error. What, you're going to demand perfection for your $85 million?
15

22

28

22.8

24.1

24.5

.467

.447

6.7%

6.7%

13.4%

-7.1%

4.3%

A math equation for you: Justin Upton + Chris Young = 90 percent of Arizona's offense.
16

29

20

27.8

30.7

29.7

.598

.579

16.5%

13.8%

30.3%

-7.5%

-1.2%

Edwin Jackson's 3.12 ERA is dragging down his team's MLB-leading 2.96 ERA.
17

26

25

26.2

27.2

26.7

.520

.500

16.9%

24.0%

40.9%

-7.5%

8.3%

Roy Halladay is out at least six weeks and Roy Oswalt is taking his talents to Arlington, so yesterday’s six runs in five innings means Joe Blanton picked a lousy time to remember he's Joe Blanton.
18

23

26

23.7

23.1

23.2

.475

.495

22.8%

11.4%

34.3%

-1.2%

-9.8%

The five runs Justin Verlander gave up were the most he'd allowed since September 24th against Baltimore. Before that you have to go back more than a year, to when he gave up six to Tampa on May 24, 2011. Moral: Verlander good.
19

25

24

26.4

26.7

26.8

.535

.555

26.0%

30.7%

56.7%

9.4%

2.8%

If you'd told me Daniel Nava was going to start 19 straight games in left field and hit .276/.429/.483, I'd have told you the drugs are too strong.
20

27

23

25.6

26.8

26.3

.529

.509

26.8%

21.3%

48.0%

5.1%

6.3%

At .376/.420/.556, Melky Cabrera has now become the hitter that nobody imagined he could be.
21

28

21

26.6

24.1

24.4

.526

.506

28.7%

34.6%

63.4%

5.9%

4.3%

After Homer Bailey allowed one run in a complete game against Pittsburgh, the Reds front office began preparing a new stat for Bailey's off-season arbitration: NP-ERA. That's Non-Pirates-ERA.
22

29

21

26.2

26.9

27.7

.549

.569

29.5%

24.4%

53.9%

-10.6%

-11.4%

The Rays and Orioles are tied for first in the American League East. The Rays are tied for the worst run differential in the division, with the Orioles.
23

27

22

22.4

24.3

24.9

.503

.523

29.9%

18.1%

48.0%

-6.3%

-14.2%

In 35 2/3 innings against right-handed hitters this season, Justin Masterson has 33 strikeouts and 12 walks. In 32 2/3 innings against left-handed hitters, Masterson has 17 strikeouts and 22 walks. Problem identified!
24

28

22

25.0

25.5

25.0

.517

.497

30.3%

25.6%

55.9%

13.8%

7.5%

The Marlins are 20-8 in May. We'd probably be more excited about this if they hadn't gone 8-14 in April.
25

27

24

27.0

25.7

25.6

.516

.496

33.5%

17.3%

50.8%

-0.0%

-18.1%

During Atlanta's now extinct eight-game losing streak, closer Craig Kimbrel pitched one inning.
26

26

23

26.0

26.5

26.3

.535

.555

36.6%

30.7%

67.3%

-5.1%

3.1%

Derek Jeter won't hit .400, but if he can hit .300 with 50 points of plate patience and 120 points of isolated slugging the Yankees should count their lucky stars. Just the ones they own will do.
27

28

22

28.8

29.6

29.8

.581

.601

47.2%

15.7%

63.0%

12.2%

29.9%

Paul Konerko went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. It was the first time he went without a hit since May 11th, when he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.
28

27

23

31.9

33.2

31.8

.619

.600

64.6%

20.5%

85.0%

0.0%

-2.8%

Rafael Furcal's is the Facebook stock of batting averages, falling 38 points in 12 days.
29

32

17

29.8

30.7

30.1

.626

.607

65.7%

14.2%

79.9%

-3.5%

-10.2%

If you want to attend Vin Scully Bobblehead Night, you have to buy a 10-game ticket package. Or just wait two weeks, when nobody cares anymore, and pick one up on eBay for $8.
30

31

19

34.0

35.6

35.1

.679

.696

94.5%

4.3%

98.8%

0.0%

-0.8%

Since signing his contract extension, Ian Kinsler has hit .279/.346 /.426.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
bobbygrace

I'll bet you outdo Jason Giambi in Witty Remarks Per Day. I'm seriously impressed by how funny this column is, day in and day out.

May 30, 2012 08:58 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

That's kind of you to say. Thanks!

May 30, 2012 09:22 AM
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