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Prospectus Hit List for May 29



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 25 Hit List for May 30
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Three days until June and the Orioles are still in first place.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

25

25

25.6

26.2

25.4

.511

.531

6.7%

50.4%

57.1%

3.9%

21.7%

Albert Pujols had two more hits. He is also officially into positive-WARP territory.
2

27

21

25.3

22.9

23.3

.513

.493

26.4%

37.8%

64.2%

0.4%

15.0%

Must... not... make... fun... of... Reds... for... starting... Miguel... Cairo... at... third... base... Must... not... make... fun... of... Reds... for... starting... Miguel...
3

29

20

26.3

26.7

27.4

.558

.578

31.1%

32.7%

63.8%

-3.5%

-2.0%

Drew Sutton, whose first position on Baseball-Reference is "pinch hitter" and who is in his fourth organization this calendar year, batted fourth for the Rays.
4

24

24

25.6

26.1

26.3

.531

.551

20.5%

27.6%

48.0%

5.5%

-6.7%

Red Sox catchers lead the majors in slugging percentage and are first in the American League in OPS. Time to learn how to spell "Saltalamacchia."
5

26

22

25.9

26.2

26.0

.542

.562

40.6%

24.8%

65.4%

-10.6%

2.8%

Phil Hughes is striking hitters out and not walking many, but beyond that things aren't going so well. He may even lose his spot in the rotation if the Yankees can talk Roger Clemens into coming back again.
6

29

19

27.5

30.5

29.5

.607

.588

15.7%

24.4%

40.2%

-0.4%

12.6%

If Bryce Harper can hit .286/.372/.514 as a 19-year-old, what is he going to do as a 119-year-old?
7

26

23

24.8

26.2

25.6

.524

.504

19.7%

23.2%

42.9%

1.6%

4.3%

How many bad things can you say about an offense that can't hit Barry Zito? This year Zito's got a 3.41 ERA so maybe not as many as you thought.
8

26

24

26.0

27.1

26.7

.529

.509

26.4%

19.7%

46.1%

3.5%

13.0%

How bad is it getting for the Phillies? Thirty-three-year-old shortstop Jimmy Rollins is hitting .224/.282/.276 in the first year of a three-year, $38 million contract, and that doesn't make their top-10 list.
9

27

22

24.3

24.6

24.1

.510

.490

21.7%

18.5%

40.2%

7.1%

-9.8%

Hanley Ramirez hasn't slugged over .500 since 2009.
10

27

22

31.5

32.5

31.2

.623

.604

67.3%

16.9%

84.3%

5.5%

0.0%

Lance Lynn leads the majors in wins, along with Cole Hamels. This raises the question, just whose freedom are the terrorists supposed to hate?
11

26

24

26.4

25.3

25.1

.514

.494

32.7%

16.1%

48.8%

-5.9%

-34.6%

The Braves have lost eight in a row and nine of 10, which somehow sounds worse even though having a terrible winning percentage beats not having one at all.
12

27

22

27.8

28.8

28.9

.574

.594

33.1%

15.4%

48.4%

5.9%

15.4%

In four plate appearances, Adam Dunn walked, struck out, flew out, and homered. All is right with the world.
13

27

21

22.5

24.1

24.6

.511

.531

42.9%

13.4%

56.3%

3.9%

-2.0%

Since coming to Cleveland, Ubaldo Jiménez has seen his ERA rise by 1.75 runs, his K/9 and BB/9 each go 1.2 the wrong way, and his homer rate double. At least his teeth haven't fallen out. Yet.
14

23

25

23.5

22.7

22.7

.479

.499

23.6%

12.6%

36.2%

-7.1%

-15.0%

With two outs, the umpires mistakenly claimed Gerald Laird dropped a foul-tipped third strike, after which the Red Sox scored three runs. Said Jim Leyland, "I know something that would have got the call right and saved us all the 20 tedious minutes of post-call arguing: a time machine!"
15

32

16

29.4

30.1

29.6

.631

.612

75.2%

12.6%

87.8%

-1.2%

-0.4%

Minus Andre Ethier, the Dodgers lineup makes you want to summon your best Jerry Seinfeld voice to ask the eternal question, "Who are these people?"
16

20

28

21.3

21.4

20.9

.436

.416

6.3%

11.8%

18.1%

1.2%

-3.5%

With last night's two hits, including a homer, Aramis Ramirez is making a bid to pass George Kottaras for the coveted Seventh Place in Slugging Percentage crown!
17

29

20

25.9

24.7

25.3

.535

.555

6.3%

11.4%

17.7%

-3.1%

-7.9%

We all knew Baltimore would hit the skids eventually, and they have, losing six of their past eight. But here's the thing: they're still in first place, nine games over .500 with a positive run differential.
18

22

27

22.6

23.7

24.1

.472

.452

5.1%

10.6%

15.7%

-6.7%

0.4%

The Diamondbacks' three best set-up men, Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler, and David Hernandez, have two things in common: all have ERAs below 2.50 and all were in different organizations two years ago.
19

27

22

22.1

21.9

21.5

.472

.452

3.5%

6.3%

9.8%

-4.3%

2.8%

You may think playing David Wright at shortstop is crazy, but before he played six innings there Monday, shortstop was the position at which he had the best fielding percentage*. (*small sample size may apply)
20

25

24

26.6

24.4

24.9

.515

.535

1.6%

5.9%

7.5%

3.9%

-4.3%

Since his helmet-throwing incident, Brett Lawrie has hit .200/.226/.233 with one double. I wonder how he'd feel about a fan throwing something near him to get him going.
21

31

18

34.1

35.6

35.1

.693

.710

93.3%

5.5%

98.8%

0.4%

-0.4%

You might think the mighty Rangers offense is benefiting from playing home games in Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, and they are, but the Rangers also lead the majors in homers on the road.
22

24

24

21.0

19.6

20.2

.441

.422

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.0%

1.6%

As great as James McDonald and his 2.20 ERA in 65 1/3 innings have been, the Pirates are just 6-4 in his starts. Though with the Pirates offense, that probably qualifies as impressive.
23

21

30

23.4

22.0

22.3

.434

.454

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

Seattle's lineup by on-base percentage: .329, .250, .303, .291, .257, .299, .313, .307, .288.
24

22

27

20.5

17.8

18.3

.401

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.6%

Guess who has more homers than Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista, and Matt Kemp. Wrong! It's Josh Reddick with 14.
25

19

29

21.2

18.7

18.0

.400

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

0.0%

Three pieces of good news: 1) Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .309/.381/.575, 2) Purple is totally in this summer, and 3) a meteor has not fallen on Coors Field.
26

22

27

24.9

21.8

22.4

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jed Lowrie is hitting .280/.354/.484 with eight homers. Mark Melancon is still in Triple-A working on not being horrifically awful. We don't call trades two months in, but it's sure tempting.
27

19

28

20.5

20.4

20.8

.429

.449

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

The Royals website proudly proclaims "Our Time," which could be true, although they don't say anything about what they're doing with it.
28

17

33

18.3

18.7

19.7

.369

.350

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.2%

The only thing worse than losing 12 games in a row is losing to the team that has lost 12 games in a row.
29

16

32

16.3

17.7

17.8

.353

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In 204 plate appearances, Joe Mauer has 30 walks and 14 extra-base hits. Might the time be approaching when pitchers start to challenge him more?
30

16

32

18.5

20.1

21.0

.394

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs 12-game losing streak finally came to an end, so, if you'll permit me, a eulogy: the Cubs losing streak is dead. [spits[

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
nschneider

AL East teams are ranked 6-10 today. I wonder if that's ever happened before (all of a divisions teams clumped together). Of course, their run differentials are all between +13 and +21, so that partly explains it. If the Orioles had gotten their margin of loss down to one run last night, they'd all be between +16 and + 18 now.

May 29, 2012 08:21 AM
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+1

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hessshaun

SEA OBP. Insane.

May 29, 2012 08:48 AM
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