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Prospectus Hit List for May 25



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 24 Hit List for May 29
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Rangers are at the top of this report. They're also under .500 over the past four weeks.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

27

18

30.5

32.0

31.6

.672

.690

94.5%

3.9%

98.4%

-1.6%

0.8%

After going 16-5 to start the year, the Rangers are 11-13.
2

25

20

28.9

29.5

28.2

.620

.601

59.8%

27.2%

87.0%

-4.7%

-3.1%

The top six hitters in the Cardinals lineup had 13 hits. The bottom four spots went 2-for-14. At least Mike Matheny got the order right.
3

30

14

26.9

27.0

26.7

.628

.609

76.4%

8.3%

84.6%

0.8%

14.6%

After I showed him his 1.75 ERA, 0.73 HR/9, and 48 percent ground ball rate, Clayton Kershaw decided he'd mastered pitching and will now take up a new career as an alpaca farmer. Sorry, Dodgers fans!
4

26

20

26.3

25.2

24.5

.554

.534

59.1%

19.7%

78.7%

-0.8%

-4.7%

The three homers Michael Bourn hit over the past three days are more than he hit in either 2011 or 2010.
5

24

21

26.2

24.0

23.8

.545

.564

1.6%

7.9%

9.4%

-5.5%

-2.0%

Does Edwin Encarnacion (.269/.337/.573; 14 homers) know that Jose Bautista is hitting again? So, you know, he can stop it now.
6

26

18

24.4

27.9

26.8

.597

.577

11.0%

13.8%

24.8%

-0.4%

3.9%

With all that's gone right for the Nationals (Bryce Harper's emergence, Stephen Strasburg's health, Gio Gonzalez's skyrocketing K rate) they still only have a four-game lead on the division.
7

27

18

24.0

25.0

25.7

.565

.585

37.0%

35.4%

72.4%

2.8%

0.4%

Three possible reasons the Rays are 10-3 against the AL West: believed they were playing the National League West; "Waterworld 2" shown on all cross-country flights; the Rays are better at baseball.
8

28

17

24.0

22.7

23.2

.544

.563

5.9%

17.3%

23.2%

2.4%

-2.4%

The Orioles are the only team to steal fewer bases than they've been caught. Clearly this is Peter Angelos' fault.
9

23

22

23.7

24.7

24.9

.535

.555

19.3%

9.8%

29.1%

-0.8%

7.1%

Alex Rios understands the expectations game. If you donít clean up your room (last yearís .613 OPS) and then you do (this yearís .747 OPS), you get praised, but if you do it in reverse, you get grounded.
10

22

22

23.6

23.7

23.9

.530

.550

18.9%

32.3%

51.2%

-0.4%

7.1%

There are two secrets to David Ortiz's season: 1) Better off-season conditioning, and 2) enjoying the benefits of Dr. Kory's Unnecessary Surgery Weight Loss Program! Dr. Kory's: Because that second lung is just weighing you down.
11

23

23

23.5

24.8

24.1

.518

.498

16.1%

22.0%

38.2%

9.4%

-3.1%

In the past two starts Joe Blanton's ERA has gone from 2.96 to 4.55, but Philly fans are an understanding lot. Blanton left the field to chants of, "Good try! Good try!"
12

21

23

23.4

20.6

21.0

.488

.468

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Is it time to jump on the Astros bandwagon? Well, probably not on merit, but it is Texas so they will have free beer.
13

25

19

22.9

21.0

21.6

.514

.494

33.9%

34.3%

68.1%

5.5%

22.0%

Do you think that every time Homer Bailey gives up a homer he silently curses his parents?
14

24

21

22.8

23.7

23.1

.520

.500

18.5%

20.9%

39.4%

2.4%

7.9%

Brandon Belt is freed, but at .227/.346/.330 I'm not sure he shouldn't be locked up again.
15

21

25

22.8

23.3

22.8

.489

.509

5.5%

38.6%

44.1%

4.7%

1.2%

Kendrys Morales' numbers are very similar to those from before he got hurt, except for one thing. His slugging percentage is down 100 points. Maybe he's afraid to hit home runs? I would be.
16

23

21

22.7

22.7

22.5

.516

.536

36.6%

27.2%

63.8%

-3.1%

-14.2%

Are the Yankees really getting old all at once? Since everybody everywhere is, yes.
17

21

26

22.3

21.1

21.3

.456

.476

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.0%

0.8%

People joke about players leaving their skills in other cities, but Chone Figgins's skills are really lost. Are they behind the couch? Are they at the bottom of the hamper? Nobody knows.
18

26

18

22.1

23.8

23.9

.544

.564

51.2%

14.6%

65.7%

4.3%

6.7%

This time last year, Cleveland had a six-game lead over Detroit and the best record in the American League. This year they also hold a six-game lead over Detroit, but they only have the fourth-best record. Points for consistency I guess.
19

24

21

21.8

22.7

22.1

.503

.483

12.2%

24.8%

37.0%

-11.4%

-8.7%

Last year Mike Stanton hit .262/.356/.537. This year Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .284/.348/.537. Thus we can conclude ethnic first names are worth 20 points of batting average. Lesson learned!
20

20

25

21.0

21.9

22.3

.473

.453

5.1%

11.4%

16.5%

-1.2%

-9.8%

Prospect Trevor Bauer has 16 strikeouts and six walks in 13 innings at Triple-A. With the Diamondbacks entrenched in the bottom half of the league's pitching staffs, might it be time to call him up before the season is lost?
21

20

24

20.9

20.5

20.7

.467

.487

29.5%

11.0%

40.6%

-3.5%

-5.1%

When you see a headline saying Justin Verlander got beat, you have to assume the Tigers offense invented the concept of negative runs.
22

22

23

20.1

17.4

18.1

.431

.451

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

0.0%

Of course the solution to the small-market A's conundrum is as simple as it is impossible: move them to New York.
23

17

26

19.1

19.0

19.4

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.4%

Little-known fact: "process" means failure in ancient Sumerian.
24

18

26

19.1

19.4

18.9

.428

.409

5.9%

13.0%

18.9%

5.1%

-9.1%

The Brewers, a team with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and Yovani Gallardo, have the second-worst team ERA in the National League.
25

16

27

19.0

16.2

15.7

.389

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

The Rockies were cheered for getting Marco Scutaro for non-prospect Clayton Mortensen. Scutaro has put up a .634 OPS while Mortensen has allowed a run in 9 1/3 innings while striking out 12.
26

24

21

18.9

19.0

19.0

.449

.430

1.6%

3.9%

5.5%

-2.8%

-5.5%

David Wright's .469 BABIP is so amazing it cleans up the toughest stains, gets you the best seats at local restaurants, and prevents liver spots!
27

17

29

18.6

18.3

19.1

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

0.0%

In New York, the Padres bested their season highs in runs scored with 11, hits by 18, and embarrassed home fans with 24,109.
28

20

24

17.6

16.2

16.9

.402

.383

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

-2.0%

-2.0%

The Pirates haven't gotten lapped in terms of runs scored yet, but the Rangers are drafting them. Just a couple more left turns...
29

15

29

16.9

18.8

20.0

.402

.382

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.8%

Asked how it feels to have his team this far below .500, Theo Epstein sipped his beer, put his feet up on the desk and said, "What team?"
30

15

29

14.9

16.2

16.3

.355

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins' problem isn't scoring runs or preventing them, it's scoring runs and preventing them.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
jrmayne

I enjoy the hit list; I enjoy Mr. Kory's style.

But referencing the playoff odds, even occasionally, seems misguided. Continuing to publish them in their present form seems regrettable. The Indians beat the Tigers yesterday, and Detroit's chance of winning the division went substatantially up and Cleveland's chance at the division win went down (not in real life, just here.) This is a continuing issue, and others have also noted it.

May 25, 2012 07:09 AM
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LynchMob

I'm seeing the Indians' 1-day change at +4.3% and the Tigers at -3.5% ... hmmm ... you're referring to the WinDiv% ... so you must have saved yesterday's ... what are the specifics in this case? Does sound odd ...

May 25, 2012 12:38 PM
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jrmayne

Hit the yellow arrow up top. You can go back and forth and note the curious road the playoff odds take.

Cleveland went from 53.5% to win the division to 51.2%; Detroit went from 24.8% to 29.5%. To quote Ralph Wiggum, "That's unpossible!"

May 25, 2012 15:03 PM
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