Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for May 24



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 23 Hit List for May 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Rangers are 99.2 percent likely to win the AL West.

RkTmW LW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

15

29

16.9

18.8

20.0

.402

.383

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.6%

Playing Houston is like playing against your younger brother in sports. If you beat him, big deal. You should've. If you lose, you're terrible.
2

16

29

17.3

17.1

18.0

.380

.361

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.4%

The Padres are giving up on moving the Petco Park fences in and refocusing their energies on moving the field out. When asked to confirm the story, GM Josh Byrnes said, "Huh? Who is this?"
3

15

28

14.6

15.7

15.7

.355

.373

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

The Twins are so bad that when they sit around the house they really sit around the house. Seriously. They don't get up at all!
4

16

27

19.0

16.2

15.7

.389

.370

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

0.4%

-3.1%

Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki combined to hit for the cycle. That's something you don't often hear about because it isn't that impressive.
5

18

26

19.1

19.4

18.9

.428

.409

6.3%

13.0%

19.3%

2.4%

-11.4%

The Brewers used six pitchers and none for more than two innings because, after striking out two in the top of the first, starter Marco Estrada hurt himself doubling off of Barry Zito.
6

17

26

19.1

19.0

19.3

.433

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Alex Gordon went from disappointment to local savior to disappointment in the span of just over a year. Thanks, BABIP!
7

20

25

21.9

22.4

21.9

.479

.499

2.4%

36.6%

39.0%

6.3%

-5.1%

Albert Pujols has hits in nine of his past 10 games. Albert Pujols is hitting just .275 over his past 10 games. Albert Pujols is sporadically hot.
8

21

25

22.2

21.0

21.3

.465

.485

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

Looking at Kevin Millwood's 3.72 ERA you might think, "He's a product of Safeco Field," but you'd be wrong. Millwood has a 7.08 ERA at home and a 1.78 ERA elsewhere. How come you don't know these things?
9

20

25

21.0

21.9

22.3

.473

.453

7.1%

7.5%

14.6%

2.4%

-11.4%

Ian Kennedy has a 4.47 ERA this season but his K/BB ratio is over 3. He's the only Kennedy having a decent year.
10

20

24

17.6

16.2

17.0

.402

.383

0.4%

2.0%

2.4%

-1.2%

1.2%

Including the pitcher, yesterday's Pirates lineup included five players hitting under .200 and two players hitting under .001.
11

20

23

20.5

19.9

20.0

.468

.488

24.8%

20.5%

45.3%

-3.1%

-12.6%

Delmon Young's approach to hitting is akin to that of a 14-year-old shoplifting candy at the gas station convenience store.
12

21

23

23.4

20.6

21.0

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

GM Jeff Luhnow is already planning his Halloween costume. He's going as Carlos Lee's contract.
13

22

23

22.8

24.2

23.4

.514

.494

12.2%

13.8%

26.0%

-2.0%

-12.2%

When Cole Hamels was caught going slightly over the speed limit he just slowed down 10 miles per hour and the cop flew right past him.
14

22

23

20.1

17.4

18.0

.431

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.8%

-1.2%

The A's have four hits over the past 18 innings. As a team they're hitting .063. Well, .0625 but I rounded up out of pity.
15

22

22

23.6

23.7

23.9

.530

.550

22.0%

31.5%

53.5%

2.8%

15.0%

Yesterday represented the fifth straight start wherein Daniel Bard walked more than he struck out. In those starts, he walked 19 to nine strikeouts.
16

22

22

22.9

24.1

24.5

.531

.551

21.3%

5.9%

27.2%

2.4%

13.0%

Kenny Williams is already planning his Halloween costume. He's going as Alex Rios' contract.
17

23

21

21.5

23.1

22.5

.512

.492

18.5%

18.5%

37.0%

-1.2%

9.1%

Barry Zito's plan to beat Milwaukee by forcing the Brewers to repeatedly run the bases failed.
18

24

21

26.2

24.0

23.8

.545

.565

0.8%

7.5%

8.3%

-2.4%

-1.6%

I am contractually obligated to write about Jose Bautista when he hits a home run, so: Jose Bautista has seven homers over the past two weeks. Check and mate, contract!
19

23

21

22.7

22.7

22.5

.516

.536

37.8%

28.7%

66.5%

0.8%

-10.6%

There has been at least one home run hit in every game played at Yankee Stadium this year.
20

24

20

19.0

19.0

19.1

.461

.441

3.9%

5.9%

9.8%

1.2%

-5.5%

David Wright has gone 1-for-9 to drop his average from .412 to .399. Ted Williams' thawed head approves.
21

24

20

22.1

22.3

21.7

.512

.492

21.3%

29.1%

50.4%

3.1%

7.1%

After losing his third game of the year, Carlos Zambrano sat at his locker chewing on what looked to be a human leg. "We'll get 'em tomorrow!" he said.
22

26

19

26.1

25.1

24.4

.564

.544

56.7%

24.8%

81.5%

-1.6%

3.5%

Two seemingly incompatible pieces of information: 1) The Braves are the second-highest-scoring team in the National League 2) Eric Hinske was hitting fifth yesterday.
23

25

19

28.6

29.2

27.8

.629

.610

69.7%

16.9%

86.6%

0.4%

-6.3%

Are the Braves the highest-scoring team in the National League? No, they aren't, and the Cardinals would appreciate you if you'd stop saying that.
24

24

19

22.1

20.1

20.8

.506

.486

23.6%

40.6%

64.2%

5.1%

16.1%

"Hey did you hear Brandon Phillips walked three times?" "Yeah, the last time that happened was April 30th." "That's not so long ago..." "2006."
25

26

18

24.4

27.9

26.7

.596

.577

5.9%

18.5%

24.4%

-2.0%

-1.6%

Ryan Zimmerman's power seems to have disappeared, though that tends to happen in DC.
26

25

18

21.5

23.4

23.5

.543

.563

53.5%

11.0%

64.6%

-1.6%

2.4%

The Indians are 9-2 in one -un games and have an even run distribution. This screams regression, but in this division it might not matter.
27

27

18

24.0

25.0

25.7

.565

.585

30.7%

36.6%

67.3%

-3.9%

-2.8%

Everyone in the Rays lineup had four or fewer at-bats except B.J. Upton, because everyone in the Rays lineup except B.J. Upton walked at least once. Upton got the game-winning hit though, so he's forgiven. Sort of.
28

27

18

30.5

32.0

31.6

.672

.690

97.6%

1.2%

98.8%

-0.4%

-1.2%

In each hitter's past 95 plate appearances, Adrian Beltre and MIchael Young have two walks each.
29

28

17

24.0

22.7

23.2

.543

.563

8.7%

20.1%

28.7%

2.0%

4.3%

In April, Nick Johnson hit .000/.133/.000. In May, Johnson is hitting .351/.455/.784. Nick Johnson likes May flowers.
30

30

14

26.9

26.9

26.6

.627

.608

74.4%

8.3%

82.7%

-6.7%

16.5%

Matt Kemp is apparently such a good hitter that removing him from the lineup allows the other team to score 11 runs. Science!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
Dodger300

So, you write that the Rangers are 99.2% likely to win the AL West, but according to your chart, they are only 98.8% likely to make the playoffs?

Garbage in, garbage out.

May 24, 2012 20:28 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.
<< Previous Article
What You Need to Know:... (05/24)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (05/23)
Next Column >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (05/25)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Collateral Damage Dail... (05/24)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Painting the Black: Super Twoing
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Meltdown in Minnesota
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 18
Premium Article Notes from the Field: A-Ball Notes
Premium Article Raising Aces: Masahiro Tanaka, the Debut Ant...
Baseball Prospectus News: New Stat Reports a...
Premium Article Skewed Left: How Service Time Dictates Top P...

MORE FROM MAY 24, 2012 09:05 AM
On the Beat: Wright on Track
The Lineup Card: 10 Mr. Almosts
Premium Article Inside The Park: About Big Threes in Basebal...
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Is Scouting All Bad...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Starting Pitching for 5/24/12
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Thursday, May 24
What You Need to Know: Thursday, May 24

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2012-05-30 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 30
2012-05-29 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, May 29
2012-05-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, May 25
2012-05-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, May 24
2012-05-23 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 23
2012-05-22 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, May 22
2012-05-21 - Premium Article Out of Left Field: When You Can't Buy a Loss
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2012-05-30 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 30
2012-05-29 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, May 29
2012-05-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, May 25
2012-05-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, May 24
2012-05-23 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 23
2012-05-22 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, May 22
2012-05-21 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 21
More...