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Prospectus Hit List for May 22



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 21 Hit List for May 23
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Cards are running cold.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

22

19

20.9

19.0

19.6

.497

.477

24.4%

34.6%

59.1%

11.0%

15.0%

The Reds are a game back in the Central primarily because the Cardinals are playing lousy baseball while the Reds are treading water. Further proof that there's just no substitute for the people above you being lousy.
2

27

16

22.8

21.3

21.8

.540

.560

8.7%

22.8%

31.5%

-3.9%

14.6%

Lament the loss all you want, but if two months ago someone on the street offered Orioles fans the best record in the American League they'd have punched the longhaired weirdo.
3

23

19

21.5

21.3

20.8

.516

.496

15.7%

33.9%

49.6%

3.9%

13.4%

Mark Buehrle is bacon ice cream. He shouldn't be very good, but he is.
4

21

21

22.8

23.0

23.2

.536

.556

23.6%

31.9%

55.5%

10.6%

10.2%

The Red Sox have both bequeathed the most inherited runners in baseball and allowed the most inherited runners to score. It's a symbiotic relationship. I'll kick you in the groin and you kick me in the face.
5

23

18

20.1

22.2

22.4

.535

.555

47.2%

15.7%

63.0%

8.7%

9.8%

The Indians are 18th in batting average, but fourth in OBP. Why? 184 walks, 21 more than second-place Tampa and 94 more than last-place Pittsburgh.
6

29

13

26.7

27.1

26.7

.652

.633

72.4%

10.2%

82.7%

3.9%

6.7%

The Dodgers lead the league with 29 sacrifice bunts.
7

24

19

25.6

23.9

23.6

.565

.584

3.9%

10.6%

14.6%

1.2%

5.1%

In six innings, Kyle Drabek walked six, threw three wild pitches, and made an error on a dropped popup. That's called a quantity start.
8

21

21

22.0

22.7

23.3

.530

.550

13.8%

12.2%

26.0%

-5.5%

4.7%

Alexei Ramirez leads the league in a category. It's outs made.
9

26

17

25.3

24.2

23.4

.574

.555

68.1%

18.1%

86.2%

-1.6%

2.8%

In some odd way, that Mike Minor gave up back-to-back-to-back home runs and yet still managed to survive for six innings is impressive.
10

19

24

19.3

19.8

20.2

.456

.436

8.3%

10.2%

18.5%

-4.7%

2.4%

Aaron Hill (.235/.320.392) must play some stellar defense, because otherwise, yuck. At least they didn't sign him to a two-year... oh. Oops.
11

21

22

21.8

23.2

22.3

.514

.494

11.4%

23.2%

34.6%

-2.0%

1.2%

Perhaps one of the biggest surprises in the game is that Juan Pierre is in the game.
12

16

27

17.1

16.7

17.5

.391

.373

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

-0.8%

1.2%

The Padres playing in Petco Park is like two monkeys using paintings from the National Gallery to play tennis with their poo.
13

26

17

29.4

30.9

30.6

.680

.697

98.4%

1.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.8%

Yu Darvish threw 96 pitches and walked six in just four innings, for his first bad start in the majors. I hope someone remembered to give him the game ball.
14

22

21

19.9

17.9

18.4

.455

.475

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

0.0%

0.8%

A's pitchers have struck out the second-fewest hitters, but if they try to catch the Twins in this category, they'll strike out there.
15

20

24

21.2

19.9

20.0

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Felix Hernandez out-dueled Yu Darvish. Back in 2008, he did the same to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Felx Hernandez obviously has something against... hype.
16

14

27

13.5

15.1

14.9

.350

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It is untrue that things don't not look unbleak for the Twins.
17

19

23

21.8

19.7

20.1

.480

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.4%

The Astros are one of only three teams without a win in extra innings. No overtime pay, no overtime wins, capiche?
18

17

24

18.8

18.4

18.7

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.8%

Jeff Francoeur batted five times. He saw 14 pitches and swung at seven. For a guy who swings at 54 percent of all the pitches he sees, that counts as restraint.
19

20

22

17.0

15.6

16.4

.411

.391

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

0.0%

-0.8%

If the Pirates were a choose-your-own-adventure book, all the possible options would still lead to losing 2-1.
20

23

19

26.9

27.6

26.4

.618

.599

68.1%

19.3%

87.4%

-0.8%

-1.2%

The Cardinals' biggest losing streak in April was two games, which they did twice. In May it was four in a row twice and three once. So much for symmetry.
21

15

27

16.5

17.8

19.0

.407

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

-1.6%

The Cubs as Telenovela! Dale Sveum: [bursting through door] “No puedo ganar con este equipo! Usted nos ha hundido, el Senor Epstein!” Theo Epstein [wearing eye patch and stroking cat]: Paciencia, Señor, paciencia. Whoohooo ha ha ha ha ha!”
22

15

26

17.7

15.2

14.7

.382

.363

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

0.0%

-2.0%

The Rockies have eight saves and 10 blown saves. Rockies horror picture show, AMIRITE?!?
23

22

20

20.6

22.8

22.1

.521

.501

17.7%

14.2%

31.9%

-0.4%

-3.9%

With the .294/.358/.456 Buster Posey is hitting, isn't he due to get traded or hurt?
24

25

18

22.6

23.2

23.9

.551

.570

28.3%

34.6%

63.0%

-2.8%

-4.3%

Jose Molina's idea: apply his pitch-framing skills to hitting by subtly kicking the glove of the catcher just as the ball is coming!
25

20

21

20.0

19.1

19.2

.477

.497

39.0%

15.7%

54.7%

3.1%

-4.7%

Max Scherzer leads the majors with more than 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. For context, that's almost as many as Adam Dunn.
26

22

20

17.7

17.9

18.2

.451

.432

1.6%

7.9%

9.4%

-1.6%

-7.1%

Kirk Nieuwenhuis got a pinch-hit single in the top of the eighth and dropped a fly ball for a three base error in the bottom of the eighth. This refutes the notion that life is fair.
27

25

17

23.4

26.9

25.7

.601

.581

3.1%

15.4%

18.5%

-2.0%

-9.1%

How good is Gio Gonzalez at fooling hitters? Yesterday he replaced Hunter Pence's turkey sandwich with a whoopee cushion. Pence chewed that sandwich for three hours.
28

18

25

20.1

20.0

19.8

.452

.472

1.6%

24.8%

26.4%

-5.1%

-12.2%

Now that Vernon Wells is hurt, he is no longer a walking billboard for addition by subtraction. He's a sitting one.
29

17

25

17.9

17.7

17.3

.417

.398

6.7%

11.8%

18.5%

-3.9%

-16.5%

You have to applaud Ron Roenicke for putting Corey Hart in the lead-off spot. Hart isn't much of an on-base threat and his power will be wasted... oh wait, I'm making the other side of that argument.
30

21

21

21.1

21.3

21.1

.503

.523

35.4%

28.3%

63.8%

-5.9%

-24.0%

If Hiroki Kuroda keeps giving up homers at this rate he may reach 40. Last year only Bronson Arroyo gave up that many. If anyone sees Kuroda practicing Bush, break his guitar.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


7 comments have been left for this article.
mshopoff

"Monkies"? "It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times?"

May 22, 2012 07:51 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Yeah, I can't spell. That might (or might not) come as a huge shock.

May 22, 2012 13:33 PM
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BP staff member Sam Miller

Eh, I suppose fixing this would be the right thing to do. Fixed!

May 22, 2012 14:15 PM
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bgleason

This is one of the most enjoyable features on BP right now...

May 22, 2012 08:05 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thank you!

May 22, 2012 13:33 PM
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Chucko

Regarding your Red Sox comment, it surprises me not at all. While it's obviously directly related to who's on the mound, I can't help but also lay it on Bobby V's doorstep. You know, "slumping manager" leaving unfamiliar starters in too long and related cascades. I'd ask if those rates have improved over the past ten games, but a) I GUESS I can look it up myself, and b) given the improved results I'm not gonna look it up and instead just assume that W's follow when fewer inherited runners score. Now cue the Benny Hill.

I second bgleason - great work on this column. Whenever a new one appears it's the first thing I check.

May 22, 2012 14:26 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks for the kind words. Knowing people enjoy it makes the effort worth while. I do appreciate it.

As for Bobby V, yeah, he's left a few guys out to dry this year. I think it's two things. First, he was trying to wring more innings out of the rotation during the first month when the bullpen was a flaming mess. Second, I think, like you alluded to, he's learning on the job a bit. Also, sometimes you leave a guy out there, he gets the outs, and you look good. Other times you leave him out there and he continues the blow up and you look bad. Valentine had a run where the second one kept happening for a while. Part bad luck, and part bad design there, I think.

May 22, 2012 16:02 PM
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