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Prospectus Hit List for May 21



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 18 Hit List for May 22
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Stephen Strasburg is a better hitter than your team's best hitter

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

14

27

13.5

15.1

14.9

.351

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Their four-game winning streak raised their run differential by 14 runs. The next day they lost by 12.
2

16

24

17.6

17.3

17.7

.429

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

For Halloween, my kids are going as The Process. When the kind people at the door offer a piece of candy, my kids will grab the bag and run.
3

15

26

16.4

17.5

18.6

.412

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.8%

The problem with the Cubs/White Sox series is half the city is going to be ticked off. It's just a matter of which half. This time it was Northside.
4

18

23

20.8

19.0

19.5

.471

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With Jose Altuve and Jed Lowrie, the Astros have a pretty good one-two in the lineup. The problems are the other seven guys.
5

21

21

19.3

17.1

17.6

.446

.466

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.4%

-2.8%

Bartolo Colon out-pitched Tim Lincecum. Imagine how impossible-sounding that would have been two years ago. Baseball.
6

16

26

16.7

16.4

17.1

.394

.375

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.4%

-1.2%

At one time or another, 11 different players were hitting ninth for the Padres yesterday.
7

19

24

20.1

19.1

19.0

.449

.469

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Mariners fans hope that the words "Home runs by Smoak and Montero" are used for decades during Mariners games but last night was the first time this year.
8

19

22

16.3

14.7

15.6

.400

.381

1.6%

1.2%

2.8%

0.4%

2.0%

The further you get from the middle of the bell curve, the more impressive the feat becomes. Thus, being one-hit is as impressive as throwing a one-hitter. Yes?
9

15

25

17.4

15.4

14.9

.392

.373

0.4%

1.2%

1.6%

-1.2%

-0.4%

Carlos Gonzalez finished a triple shy of the cycle which is like saying I finished an entire senior year's worth of classes plus finals shy of graduating.
10

26

16

29.3

30.5

30.4

.692

.708

97.2%

2.0%

99.2%

-0.4%

-0.8%

Nelson Cruz's 3-for-5 is normally better than a 2-for-4, but Cruz didn't throw eight innings of one-run ball like Colby Lewis did.
11

28

13

25.6

26.0

25.7

.642

.623

76.0%

6.7%

82.7%

6.3%

11.0%

As amazing as Matt Kemp has been, the Dodgers pitching staff ranks second in the league in ERA, 0.06 behind Washington.
12

23

18

20.1

22.2

22.3

.534

.554

46.9%

9.4%

56.3%

-5.1%

10.2%

In 22 1/3 innings, Aroldis Chapman has 39 strikeouts. In 58 2/3 innings Derek Lowe has discovered a new plane of pitching, one where strikeouts are brutal and unsporting. Also he has 15 strikeouts.
13

23

19

24.7

23.2

23.0

.559

.578

4.3%

10.2%

14.6%

4.7%

-1.2%

The team with the best run differential in the AL East is the Blue Jays. But the next four series come against the Rays, Rangers, Orioles and Red Sox, so talk to me then.
14

22

19

17.3

17.7

18.0

.458

.438

1.2%

11.4%

12.6%

1.6%

1.6%

David Wright is now hitting .412. At this rate he'll hit .412.
15

21

21

22.0

22.7

23.3

.530

.550

18.9%

12.2%

31.1%

8.3%

11.4%

It took winning four in a row, but the White Sox are now the only team in the AL Central with a positive run differential.
16

21

20

20.0

22.0

21.3

.514

.494

12.2%

12.6%

24.8%

-11.4%

-14.2%

Tim Lincecum may be hurt, but that might not end up hurting the team much as Lincecum has a 6.04 ERA while the Giants starters as a whole are at 3.41.
17

17

24

17.6

17.6

17.1

.422

.403

8.7%

13.0%

21.7%

-2.8%

-18.5%

Somehow the Brewers scored 16 runs while getting just four extra-base hits. Probably helped that three of those were homers.
18

24

17

22.7

26.5

25.2

.600

.581

5.9%

13.8%

19.7%

3.9%

-2.4%

Stephen Strasburg is averaging an extra-base hit every four plate appearances. However, he's striking out 31 percent of the time and... wait a minute! He's Adam Dunn!
19

19

23

19.4

20.0

20.3

.468

.448

11.4%

14.2%

25.6%

3.1%

3.1%

How long has Chris Young been out? Long enough that getting two hits in 12 at-bats since his return can drop his batting average 50 points.
20

22

19

26.2

26.9

25.7

.615

.596

69.7%

16.1%

85.8%

-2.8%

-6.7%

The Cardinals starters have given up the fewest home runs in the league.
21

20

21

20.0

19.1

19.1

.477

.497

34.3%

17.7%

52.0%

3.5%

-11.0%

The single that ended Justin Verlander's no-hit bid in the ninth was almost knocked down by a diving Jim Joyce. "Figure I owe somebody something," Joyce might have said.
22

26

16

25.0

24.3

23.5

.588

.568

70.5%

19.7%

90.2%

3.9%

5.9%

If you had his phone number, Tim Hudson would tell you there really is such a small difference between "sinker" and "stinker." But he won't, because you don't have his phone number, mostly because you haven't asked C.J. Wilson.
23

27

15

22.5

21.2

21.8

.550

.570

6.3%

22.0%

28.3%

0.4%

9.4%

How did the Orioles lose? Call it the Curse of Dana Eveland, though it was really just the actual Dana Eveland.
24

18

24

19.7

19.8

19.7

.460

.479

2.8%

26.8%

29.5%

-12.2%

-16.5%

If Ervin Santana's season continues like this, he'll lose 23 games. He'll also give up 46 homers, which doesn't really sound like something they'd let him do.
25

21

21

21.5

22.5

21.6

.516

.496

10.6%

27.6%

38.2%

-1.2%

6.3%

Cliff Lee surrendered five runs in seven innings of work, which was surprising, as he had given up eight runs in 37 innings coming into the game.
26

21

19

20.0

17.8

18.5

.483

.463

20.1%

28.7%

48.8%

-1.6%

9.8%

Judging by the incredible success Aroldis Chapman has had moving to the bullpen, the Reds should consider moving their entire rotation to the bullpen.
27

20

21

22.1

22.2

22.3

.528

.548

19.7%

29.5%

49.2%

9.8%

6.7%

The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10. See? Threatening suicide does work.
28

21

20

21.2

21.3

21.1

.516

.536

33.9%

32.3%

66.1%

-10.2%

-15.7%

If Alex Rodriguez's slugging percentage keeps dropping at this rate, by the time his contract expires in 2017 he'll be slugging .192. Though, by then $20 million might be the going rate for that kind of performance.
29

22

19

20.6

20.0

19.6

.501

.481

11.8%

33.5%

45.3%

2.4%

4.3%

After Hanley Ramirez hit .243/.333/.379 last year, many analysts expected this to be a bounce-back year. So how much bounce does .232/.302/.421 have?
30

25

17

22.5

22.9

23.6

.559

.579

35.8%

37.0%

72.8%

1.2%

10.2%

Jose Molina isn't in the lineup for his bat. How do I know? Because Joe Maddon's pinch-hitter of choice for Molina was and is hitting all of .000/.000/.000.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
jrbdmb

All teams Playoff Odds at 0%. I think I liked the old broken Playoff Odds better. :)

May 21, 2012 10:22 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I'm going out on a limb and say there is a 0 percent chance of that being correct.

May 21, 2012 10:32 AM
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+1

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HalfStreet

Uh-oh. The Mayan calendar just lost a few more months!

May 21, 2012 11:15 AM
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+3

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HalfStreet

The Nats and Mets captions were brilliant.

May 21, 2012 11:21 AM
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0

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

May 21, 2012 13:13 PM
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0

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