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Prospectus Hit List for May 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 17 Hit List for May 21
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Nationals' worst pitcher might be your team's best pitcher.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

24

15

21.1

21.5

21.9

.567

.587

33.9%

36.6%

70.5%

-4.7%

3.5%

I'm not sure which is more impressive, that Joe Maddon put Jeff Keppinger in the cleanup spot to begin with, or that Keppinger went 2-for-4 with a walk and an RBI.
2

17

22

17.9

17.8

17.7

.451

.471

3.5%

34.3%

37.8%

-6.3%

-5.1%

Albert Pujols hit his second homer in as many days and now has three on the season. Possibly lost in the shuffle is this: in his past 20 games Pujols has one walk.
3

20

18

19.7

19.6

19.5

.518

.538

42.5%

32.7%

75.2%

-2.4%

-3.5%

As a kid, Derek Jeter misheard the line, "Every time a bell rings an angel gets his wings" as, "every time a ball is hit on the ground Derek Jeter gets money money money money and screw the Angels."
4

19

18

18.5

16.5

17.4

.482

.462

14.6%

31.5%

46.1%

-6.3%

-5.9%

The Reds are last in baseball in Holds. So when looking for reasons for their mediocre performance so far, keep looking.
5

20

19

20.4

21.2

20.3

.525

.505

21.3%

29.5%

50.8%

7.5%

14.6%

In 37 innings, Cliff Lee has walked four batters.
6

18

20

20.2

20.6

20.6

.522

.542

12.6%

27.6%

40.2%

-3.5%

8.3%

The Red Sox have played 38 games and Nick Punto, two-year contract and all, has five hits. All of them are grand slams. No, they're not.
7

24

15

23.3

22.6

21.9

.589

.570

55.5%

26.8%

82.3%

2.0%

7.9%

The Braves have pushed their way into first place in the NL East, and won't look back until at least today because that's when the next game is.
8

20

18

19.0

18.5

18.3

.499

.479

15.4%

21.3%

36.6%

-2.0%

-9.1%

The good news is the position controversy between Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes hasn't popped up again. Both seem happy. The bad news is both (.735 OPS for Ramirez, .673 for Reyes) have been happily lousy.
9

25

14

21.4

20.6

20.7

.563

.582

7.1%

20.9%

28.0%

1.6%

8.3%

How good has Adam Jones been this year? If he knew how to take a walk, he'd be Matt Kemp.
10

16

22

15.7

16.2

16.4

.422

.403

8.7%

17.7%

26.4%

-4.7%

-4.7%

Sure, the Brewers got shut out 4-0 by a pitcher with a 5.72 ERA but... but... where was I going with this?
11

23

15

20.7

24.0

22.9

.597

.577

5.5%

17.7%

23.2%

1.6%

6.7%

Edwin Jackson's 3.71 ERA is the worst of any Nationals starter and the only one over 3.00.
12

18

20

17.9

16.8

16.9

.457

.477

41.7%

15.7%

57.5%

-5.9%

-7.1%

The Tigers used pitchers Fister, Coke, and Villarreal, which is good because before Villarreal came in it was starting to sound like the scariest party ever.
13

22

16

18.7

20.6

20.4

.538

.558

48.0%

13.8%

61.8%

5.9%

1.6%

How does a team that's been outscored on the season get six games over .500? There are two options: go 9-1 in one-run games, or cannibalism. [checks stats] They're 9-1. Phew.
14

22

16

25.5

26.6

25.5

.655

.637

76.4%

13.4%

89.8%

-7.1%

-4.3%

Remember when Lance Berkman (.325/.426/.500) sat on the Yankees bench for a few months? That was funny!
15

21

17

16.8

17.1

17.3

.475

.455

2.4%

12.2%

14.6%

0.8%

-5.1%

David Wright is hitting .411. If he goes 0 for his next 25 he'll still be hitting .411 now.
16

19

19

18.3

19.5

19.1

.499

.479

19.7%

11.4%

31.1%

3.9%

-3.1%

Good news and bad-ish news: Tim Lincecum's strikeout rate is the fifth-best in baseball among starters. Among the top 25 strikeout pitchers, though, his walk rate is the worst.
17

21

18

22.2

20.8

20.6

.542

.562

3.9%

7.9%

11.8%

4.7%

2.8%

Jose Bautista has hit five homers in his past seven games. Be glad his job isn't to be a scary clown. Dude is good. He'd be really super scary.
18

17

22

17.9

18.9

19.4

.469

.449

10.6%

7.5%

18.1%

-2.4%

-7.1%

The swarm of bees around the Rockies dugout was vacuumed up by a beekeeper. Could this be a metaphor for a Diamondbacks win? Maybe. But more importantly, beekeepers use vacuums?
19

25

13

23.3

23.0

22.5

.617

.598

68.1%

5.9%

74.0%

8.7%

18.5%

Bobby Abreu has never walked in fewer than 10 percent of his at-bats, and just once since his rookie year has be been lower than 12 percent. This year: 6 percent.
20

18

21

19.4

20.3

20.9

.504

.524

9.8%

5.1%

15.0%

2.8%

-3.9%

Adam Dunn has struck out in every game this season except one. I hate that game.
21

24

15

27.1

28.0

27.7

.684

.701

96.1%

3.5%

99.6%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Michael Young's 0-for-6 was the grittiest, gameriest you'll ever see.
22

20

19

18.1

16.7

16.8

.459

.479

0.4%

2.0%

2.4%

1.6%

0.4%

Josh Reddick is now hitting .283/.337/.546 with 10 homers and four steals without getting caught. Josh Reddick is what Jeff Francouer thinks he is. Shhh!
23

18

20

15.6

14.1

15.2

.414

.395

0.4%

1.6%

2.0%

1.6%

0.8%

This week marks the eighth consecutive week that a Pittsburgh Pirate has been on the cover of Pittsburgh Pirates Magazine.
24

15

22

17.2

15.0

14.5

.417

.398

0.4%

1.6%

2.0%

-0.4%

-6.3%

The Rockies lead the league in pickoffs, which is nice, though it has about the same correlation to winning as leading the lead in picking your nose. (The Rockies are second in nose-picking, by the way.)
25

15

23

16.0

17.0

18.1

.435

.416

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

-0.4%

-0.8%

The Cubs bullpen has walked 5.6 hitters per nine innings. That's the most in baseball and 4.4 more than the best-in-class Rangers.
26

14

25

15.6

15.4

16.0

.391

.372

1.2%

0.4%

1.6%

-0.8%

-1.6%

Padres shortstops are hitting .118/.215/.165, or about the same as if manager Bud Black sent his pet duck, Mr. Spreckles, up to hit. Actually, no, Mr. Spreckles would have a higher on-base percentage. Ducks are short.
27

17

21

20.1

18.7

18.9

.491

.471

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

About the same number of people saw Jed Lowrie hit a two-run homer as saw me steal that candy bar. (I said I was sorry!)
28

16

24

17.1

16.2

16.6

.412

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ichiro went 0-for-6 with nothing. No strikeouts, no walks, no stolen bases, no sacrifices, no anything. In his major league career (1,789 games), he's only had a game this boring twice before.
29

12

26

12.2

13.3

13.1

.332

.350

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Thirty-eight games into the season and the Twins have their second two-game winning streak. They don't have a three gamer yet.
30

15

22

16.1

15.4

15.7

.421

.440

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

-0.4%

0.4%

After posting a 3.52 ERA in last year's second half, Luke Hochevar has spent this year reminding us of the magnitude of the mistake the Royals made in taking him first overall in 2006.