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Prospectus Hit List for May 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 17 Hit List for May 21
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Nationals' worst pitcher might be your team's best pitcher.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

25

13

23.3

23.0

22.5

.617

.598

68.1%

5.9%

74.0%

8.7%

18.5%

Bobby Abreu has never walked in fewer than 10 percent of his at-bats, and just once since his rookie year has be been lower than 12 percent. This year: 6 percent.
2

20

19

20.4

21.2

20.3

.525

.505

21.3%

29.5%

50.8%

7.5%

14.6%

In 37 innings, Cliff Lee has walked four batters.
3

22

16

18.7

20.6

20.4

.538

.558

48.0%

13.8%

61.8%

5.9%

1.6%

How does a team that's been outscored on the season get six games over .500? There are two options: go 9-1 in one-run games, or cannibalism. [checks stats] They're 9-1. Phew.
4

21

18

22.2

20.8

20.6

.542

.562

3.9%

7.9%

11.8%

4.7%

2.8%

Jose Bautista has hit five homers in his past seven games. Be glad his job isn't to be a scary clown. Dude is good. He'd be really super scary.
5

19

19

18.3

19.5

19.1

.499

.479

19.7%

11.4%

31.1%

3.9%

-3.1%

Good news and bad-ish news: Tim Lincecum's strikeout rate is the fifth-best in baseball among starters. Among the top 25 strikeout pitchers, though, his walk rate is the worst.
6

18

21

19.4

20.3

20.9

.504

.524

9.8%

5.1%

15.0%

2.8%

-3.9%

Adam Dunn has struck out in every game this season except one. I hate that game.
7

24

15

23.3

22.6

21.9

.589

.570

55.5%

26.8%

82.3%

2.0%

7.9%

The Braves have pushed their way into first place in the NL East, and won't look back until at least today because that's when the next game is.
8

20

19

18.1

16.7

16.8

.459

.479

0.4%

2.0%

2.4%

1.6%

0.4%

Josh Reddick is now hitting .283/.337/.546 with 10 homers and four steals without getting caught. Josh Reddick is what Jeff Francouer thinks he is. Shhh!
9

18

20

15.6

14.1

15.2

.414

.395

0.4%

1.6%

2.0%

1.6%

0.8%

This week marks the eighth consecutive week that a Pittsburgh Pirate has been on the cover of Pittsburgh Pirates Magazine.
10

23

15

20.7

24.0

22.9

.597

.577

5.5%

17.7%

23.2%

1.6%

6.7%

Edwin Jackson's 3.71 ERA is the worst of any Nationals starter and the only one over 3.00.
11

25

14

21.4

20.6

20.7

.563

.582

7.1%

20.9%

28.0%

1.6%

8.3%

How good has Adam Jones been this year? If he knew how to take a walk, he'd be Matt Kemp.
12

21

17

16.8

17.1

17.3

.475

.455

2.4%

12.2%

14.6%

0.8%

-5.1%

David Wright is hitting .411. If he goes 0 for his next 25 he'll still be hitting .411 now.
13

17

21

20.1

18.7

18.9

.491

.471

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

About the same number of people saw Jed Lowrie hit a two-run homer as saw me steal that candy bar. (I said I was sorry!)
14

16

24

17.1

16.2

16.6

.412

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ichiro went 0-for-6 with nothing. No strikeouts, no walks, no stolen bases, no sacrifices, no anything. In his major league career (1,789 games), he's only had a game this boring twice before.
15

12

26

12.2

13.3

13.1

.332

.350

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Thirty-eight games into the season and the Twins have their second two-game winning streak. They don't have a three gamer yet.
16

24

15

27.1

28.0

27.7

.684

.701

96.1%

3.5%

99.6%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Michael Young's 0-for-6 was the grittiest, gameriest you'll ever see.
17

15

22

16.1

15.4

15.7

.421

.440

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

-0.4%

0.4%

After posting a 3.52 ERA in last year's second half, Luke Hochevar has spent this year reminding us of the magnitude of the mistake the Royals made in taking him first overall in 2006.
18

15

23

16.0

17.0

18.1

.435

.416

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

-0.4%

-0.8%

The Cubs bullpen has walked 5.6 hitters per nine innings. That's the most in baseball and 4.4 more than the best-in-class Rangers.
19

15

22

17.2

15.0

14.5

.417

.398

0.4%

1.6%

2.0%

-0.4%

-6.3%

The Rockies lead the league in pickoffs, which is nice, though it has about the same correlation to winning as leading the lead in picking your nose. (The Rockies are second in nose-picking, by the way.)
20

14

25

15.6

15.4

16.0

.391

.372

1.2%

0.4%

1.6%

-0.8%

-1.6%

Padres shortstops are hitting .118/.215/.165, or about the same as if manager Bud Black sent his pet duck, Mr. Spreckles, up to hit. Actually, no, Mr. Spreckles would have a higher on-base percentage. Ducks are short.
21

20

18

19.0

18.5

18.3

.499

.479

15.4%

21.3%

36.6%

-2.0%

-9.1%

The good news is the position controversy between Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes hasn't popped up again. Both seem happy. The bad news is both (.735 OPS for Ramirez, .673 for Reyes) have been happily lousy.
22

17

22

17.9

18.9

19.4

.469

.449

10.6%

7.5%

18.1%

-2.4%

-7.1%

The swarm of bees around the Rockies dugout was vacuumed up by a beekeeper. Could this be a metaphor for a Diamondbacks win? Maybe. But more importantly, beekeepers use vacuums?
23

20

18

19.7

19.6

19.5

.518

.538

42.5%

32.7%

75.2%

-2.4%

-3.5%

As a kid, Derek Jeter misheard the line, "Every time a bell rings an angel gets his wings" as, "every time a ball is hit on the ground Derek Jeter gets money money money money and screw the Angels."
24

18

20

20.2

20.6

20.6

.522

.542

12.6%

27.6%

40.2%

-3.5%

8.3%

The Red Sox have played 38 games and Nick Punto, two-year contract and all, has five hits. All of them are grand slams. No, they're not.
25

24

15

21.1

21.5

21.9

.567

.587

33.9%

36.6%

70.5%

-4.7%

3.5%

I'm not sure which is more impressive, that Joe Maddon put Jeff Keppinger in the cleanup spot to begin with, or that Keppinger went 2-for-4 with a walk and an RBI.
26

16

22

15.7

16.2

16.4

.422

.403

8.7%

17.7%

26.4%

-4.7%

-4.7%

Sure, the Brewers got shut out 4-0 by a pitcher with a 5.72 ERA but... but... where was I going with this?
27

18

20

17.9

16.8

16.9

.457

.477

41.7%

15.7%

57.5%

-5.9%

-7.1%

The Tigers used pitchers Fister, Coke, and Villarreal, which is good because before Villarreal came in it was starting to sound like the scariest party ever.
28

19

18

18.5

16.5

17.4

.482

.462

14.6%

31.5%

46.1%

-6.3%

-5.9%

The Reds are last in baseball in Holds. So when looking for reasons for their mediocre performance so far, keep looking.
29

17

22

17.9

17.8

17.7

.451

.471

3.5%

34.3%

37.8%

-6.3%

-5.1%

Albert Pujols hit his second homer in as many days and now has three on the season. Possibly lost in the shuffle is this: in his past 20 games Pujols has one walk.
30

22

16

25.5

26.6

25.5

.655

.637

76.4%

13.4%

89.8%

-7.1%

-4.3%

Remember when Lance Berkman (.325/.426/.500) sat on the Yankees bench for a few months? That was funny!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
ahemmer

Thanks for the Adam Dunn nugget. I was hoping you would say something about his no strikeout game once it finally happened.

May 18, 2012 13:21 PM
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gweedoh565

WHY HASN'T ANYONE EVER THOUGHT OF USING DUCKS AS DH'S BEFORE THIS???

May 18, 2012 13:25 PM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

I know, right? We're ahead of the curve at BP in more ways than anyone previously thought.

May 18, 2012 13:36 PM
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0

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WaldoInSC

Because there was no DH when Medwick played.

May 18, 2012 17:27 PM
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+1

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dodgerken222

Good news...the Reds got a hold today. Sean Marshall faced five Yankees, gave up four hits and voila! A Hold!

May 19, 2012 16:05 PM
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+2

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