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Prospectus Hit List for May 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 16 Hit List for May 18
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Gee! and Oh! are two reasonable reactions to watching Gio Gonzalez dominate.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

24

14

26.6

27.5

27.3

.693

.710

95.3%

3.9%

99.2%

-0.4%

-0.4%

When the baseball gods make your All-Star second baseman sick moments before game time, that's a sign someone feels the playing field is uneven.
2

22

15

25.2

26.3

25.2

.667

.649

80.7%

13.0%

93.7%

-0.4%

-2.8%

The Cardinals are second in baseball in OPS, which is pretty impressive when you consider that they've given 90 plate appearances to pitchers.
3

23

14

20.5

23.9

22.9

.610

.591

8.3%

12.6%

20.9%

0.8%

0.8%

Batters are hitting .096 and slugging .145 when Gio Gonzalez has two strikes on them. They're hitting .100 and slugging .100 when he has three balls on them.
4

24

13

22.0

21.5

21.0

.598

.579

61.8%

3.9%

65.7%

-2.4%

1.2%

How bad is the Dodgers lineup without Matt Kemp? Bobby Abreu, weeks off being released by the other Los Angeles team, was hitting third last night.
5

24

14

20.8

21.0

21.4

.574

.593

33.5%

39.8%

73.2%

-0.8%

0.4%

Changing speeds works well for Jeremy Hellickson when it comes to hitters, but not so well when it comes to romance. "Let's take it slow, OK? We shouldn't rush into anything lets get married!"
6

23

15

22.1

21.2

20.5

.571

.552

48.0%

31.5%

79.5%

-1.6%

6.7%

Prepare to be impressed in three... two... one... Brian McCann has 15 walks and only 13 strikeouts.
7

24

14

20.7

20.1

20.3

.560

.579

5.1%

18.9%

24.0%

6.3%

4.7%

The Orioles have played a 13-, a 17-, and now a 15-inning game, and won them all.
8

20

18

21.4

19.8

19.7

.532

.552

1.2%

5.1%

6.3%

1.6%

-2.4%

Brett Lawrie went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, igniting a worldwide umpire celebration.
9

21

16

18.1

19.9

19.7

.531

.551

47.6%

13.0%

60.6%

6.3%

7.5%

Indians left fielders have hit .184/.285/.287, which is really bad, but not quite as bad as this: .184/.263/.294. That's the slash line from Indians first basemen.
10

20

17

19.5

19.5

19.4

.530

.550

50.4%

28.3%

78.7%

-8.7%

-0.8%

Contrary to popular belief, of the Yankees' 56 home runs, only 24 were missed bunt attempts to right field.
11

20

17

19.3

19.1

18.7

.521

.501

18.9%

25.6%

44.5%

7.9%

1.6%

In 54 innings, Mark Buehrle has 29 strikeouts, nine walks, six homers allowed, two extra vowels, and partridge in a pear tree.
12

19

19

19.8

20.5

19.7

.520

.500

18.9%

26.0%

44.9%

2.4%

3.5%

What's weirder: That Juan Pierre had two hits and is now hitting .340 or that Ty Wigginton pinch-hit for him and walked, singled, and stole a base?
13

17

20

19.5

20.1

20.0

.518

.538

9.8%

29.5%

39.4%

0.8%

3.5%

After his seven horrendous starts somehow achieved a 4-1 record, Clay Buchholz finally got around to pitching well. So of course he lost.
14

19

17

18.6

16.7

17.6

.499

.479

14.2%

38.6%

52.8%

7.1%

7.5%

Third base has been, uh, really bad for the Reds, so Todd Frazier's .293/.341/.659 must look, um, really good. Hey, they can't all be winners.
15

18

19

17.5

18.8

18.3

.491

.471

21.3%

5.5%

26.8%

-13.0%

-9.8%

If we didn't count the East divisions, the Giants' .500 record would put them squarely in the top half of teams.
16

17

21

18.3

19.1

19.7

.487

.507

9.4%

4.3%

13.8%

-2.4%

-5.5%

Hey Gavin Floyd! You have to be pretty bad to give up a homer to Albert Pujols!
17

16

21

19.2

17.8

18.0

.479

.459

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have the fifth-best run differential in the National League. The only way the Astros were picked to finish fifth in anything was if there were only four teams involved.
18

17

21

17.9

18.0

17.9

.466

.486

4.7%

41.3%

46.1%

8.7%

0.0%

With his second homer in a month and a half, Albert Pujols has now officially equaled the production the Angels expected out of him in the first week.
19

18

19

17.5

16.5

16.7

.464

.484

42.9%

14.6%

57.5%

-8.7%

-7.1%

The Tigers aren't running away with it as was expected, but if nothing else they can take comfort in the fact that each team in the AL Central has been outscored.
20

16

22

17.1

18.5

18.9

.464

.444

12.2%

7.1%

19.3%

5.5%

-3.9%

Just before he died, my grandfather took me aside and said, "Boy, when Jason Kubel is your best power threat you aren't much of a threat."
21

20

17

15.8

15.9

16.2

.459

.439

5.9%

6.3%

12.2%

-1.6%

-5.9%

Johan Santana in 43 2/3 innings: 46 strikeouts and 14 walks.
22

19

19

17.4

16.2

16.3

.453

.473

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-1.6%

0.0%

The A's two-through-six hitters struck out nine times against Ranger pitching. [checks Recipes for Winning book] Nope.
23

15

22

15.6

16.7

17.9

.441

.421

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.8%

-0.8%

Michael Bowden (six runs in 6 2/3 innings) continues to prove that, no matter which league he's pitching in, he's still Michael Bowden.
24

16

21

15.6

16.1

16.3

.432

.413

4.7%

27.2%

31.9%

-3.5%

0.8%

Through a mixup, the Brewers pitching staff gave up a run to the Bratwurst.
25

15

21

15.9

14.9

15.2

.424

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Royals are third in the American League at something. Unfortunately the thing they're good at is being bad at ERA.
26

15

21

16.9

14.4

13.9

.418

.398

3.1%

0.8%

3.9%

0.4%

0.8%

More Amazing: Jamie Moyer's 6 1/3, one run, five strikeouts or that Moyer got two RBIs while beating out an infield single?
27

16

23

16.7

15.9

16.3

.416

.436

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.8%

0.4%

Felix Hernandez faltering (3 2/3 innings, eight runs) is like a blizzard in Hawaii, something free in New York City, or a bad Weird Al song.
28

14

24

16.0

15.9

16.4

.409

.390

1.6%

0.8%

2.4%

0.4%

0.4%

From 2009 to 2011, Cameron Maybin walked in 7.8 percent of his plate appearances. This year he's walking in 12.8 percent.
29

17

20

14.8

13.3

14.3

.401

.382

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

-1.2%

-0.0%

One year at $4.5 million for Erik Bedard and his 3.07 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 41 innings could be the steal of the offseason. Unless all his ligaments start shooting out of his arm, decapitating his teammates. It could happen.
30

11

26

11.6

12.5

12.5

.322

.340

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

To quote the Bible, "And lo, there was a mighty earthquake and the sun became black as night, the Twins scored 11 runs in a regulation game, and the moon became as blood."

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
bobbygrace

...and the Twins and Royals join the Astros with a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. Fans of those teams, stop watching now. It's over.

May 17, 2012 13:14 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

There's lots more to baseball than just making the playoffs.

May 17, 2012 13:44 PM
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HalfStreet

True- There's rising and falling (or for rhe Twins, stagnating) in the Daily Hit List.

May 17, 2012 15:37 PM
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bobbygrace

Totally agree! My comment was meant to question the odds of anyone's playoff chances being 0.0% in May. There's more to baseball than making the playoffs, and believing your team can still make the playoffs in the face of overwhelming evidence that they're probably not going to make the playoffs is one of those things.

May 18, 2012 07:33 AM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

I'm not sure how I feel about laughing as hard as I did at the comment about the A's futility.

May 17, 2012 16:13 PM
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