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Prospectus Hit List for May 16



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 15 Hit List for May 17
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Have you ever heard of this team called the Rays?

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

20

16

17.0

18.5

16.9

.502

.522

23.6%

17.1%

40.7%

0.5%

-6.3%

Derek Lowe has struck out one or zero hitters in five of his eight starts. You'd think Lowe wouldn't be lasting very long but he's averaging 6 2/3 innings per start.
2

22

14

19.6

22.5

22.4

.601

.582

2.6%

5.1%

7.6%

0.2%

-5.3%

Of all the things to learn from Roger Clemens, putting icy hot on your junk before a game has to be near the bottom of the list.
3

16

21

16.9

17.0

15.1

.439

.459

16.6%

52.8%

69.5%

-0.5%

-5.1%

Albert Pujols hit three singles yesterday, which is nice, but is probably like commissioning a painting from Van Gogh and getting a doodle on a bar napkin instead.
4

18

17

17.7

15.6

16.6

.485

.465

13.9%

29.0%

42.9%

-1.0%

-3.6%

Between Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall (51 strikeouts and eight walks in 31 1/3 innings), losing Ryan Madson wasn't that bad, at least in the eighth and ninth.
5

21

15

24.4

25.4

24.5

.661

.643

64.0%

23.5%

87.5%

0.0%

-2.5%

just as the Pirates cross the 100-run barrier, the Cardinals prepare to pass 200. "Dear Cardinals, We're kinda tired. Can you relax a bit? We'll be with you in a month. Kisses, Pirates.
6

18

18

17.4

18.1

18.6

.501

.481

34.5%

7.3%

41.9%

-0.1%

-2.2%

The Giants lead all of baseball with 41 errors, though, in fairness, 12 of those were charged for simply employing Miguel Tejada last season.
7

16

21

17.2

18.1

20.6

.486

.466

23.2%

6.7%

29.9%

-0.5%

-2.2%

J.J. Putz has 12 strikeouts and no walks in 11 innings. Sounds idyllic until you mention the 10 runs he has given up.
8

23

14

20.2

20.3

19.8

.563

.582

16.3%

30.4%

46.8%

0.9%

-0.6%

Rays attendance would rise if their stadium were farther outside of St. Petersburg, like, say New York City.
9

19

18

20.1

18.5

17.8

.510

.530

1.2%

4.7%

5.9%

-0.4%

-0.6%

The scary part for Jose Bautista is that, if you remove the last two years, what he's done this season fits in perfectly with his career.
10

13

24

15.2

14.6

16.3

.400

.380

9.2%

3.6%

12.8%

0.4%

-0.5%

Will Venable has four stolen bases and has been caught five times. A modest proposal: tape his legs together.
11

20

16

15.6

15.7

17.4

.477

.458

2.8%

6.4%

9.2%

-0.1%

-0.4%

Two more hits put David Wright at a .408 batting average. Cue the arguments to sit out the rest of the season to preserve it.
12

14

21

15.9

13.6

14.9

.417

.397

8.8%

4.0%

12.8%

0.5%

-0.2%

Troy Tulowitzki is fine after taking a foul ball off his leg, and even collected two hits. But just in case, the perpetrator, Dexter Fowler, was taken out back and destroyed.
13

15

21

15.8

16.9

19.3

.466

.446

0.4%

2.0%

2.4%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Alfonso Soriano just hit his first homer of the year. Only two more years at $18 million per!
14

17

19

14.7

13.3

14.7

.414

.395

0.2%

1.2%

1.4%

-0.2%

-0.0%

In a unique form of signage, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle calls out defensive positioning by altering the color of his face.
15

15

21

18.1

16.6

17.7

.468

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Brandon Lyon has thrown 14 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts to only two walks and three runs allowed. Two years in, but maybe he'll finally start earning that contract.
16

15

20

15.5

14.8

14.6

.428

.448

0.3%

0.3%

0.7%

0.0%

0.1%

The secret to Bruce Chen's success? "I call it the medium-fast-ball," says an excited Chen. "It's straight like a regular fastball, but just a bit slower and without all that bothersome movement."
17

10

26

10.6

11.6

11.8

.305

.322

0.5%

0.5%

1.0%

-0.1%

0.1%

Seven of the 33 Twins who faced Derek Lowe during his strikeout-less shutout hit the first or second pitch of the at-bat. Two of them got hits.
18

16

22

16.9

16.4

16.2

.431

.451

0.1%

0.8%

0.9%

0.1%

0.1%

Ichiro is hitting .296/.337/.395, which isn't much of a bounceback but is the best hitting line in the Mariners' lineup.
19

17

20

18.4

19.1

18.9

.496

.516

9.0%

8.3%

17.2%

-0.6%

0.2%

Like Justin Timberlake at an undergrad bar, Adam Dunn is striking out 38 percent of the time he comes to bat.
20

23

14

25.8

26.6

26.2

.686

.703

83.2%

13.6%

96.8%

0.1%

0.3%

The Rangers have had more plate appearances than any team. That means that, statistically, if you turn on your TV chances are you'll see a Rangers game regardless of where you live.
21

19

18

17.3

16.1

16.4

.464

.484

0.1%

1.1%

1.2%

-0.2%

0.3%

Josh Reddick walked twice in a game for the second time in his career (179 games).
22

23

14

20.1

19.2

18.5

.546

.565

0.8%

2.9%

3.8%

0.2%

0.3%

If Adam Jones keeps playing like this (.302/.350/.591), some team is going to make a very expensive mistake.
23

19

17

18.4

18.7

18.7

.519

.499

20.8%

21.0%

41.7%

-0.2%

0.4%

The Marlins give up .45 homers per nine innings at home, but that jumps to .70 on the road. Thing is, home park or not, both numbers are pretty impressive.
24

20

16

19.7

19.7

18.9

.544

.564

57.3%

25.2%

82.5%

-1.1%

2.1%

As a fan of entropy, it's nice to hear a bunch of Yankees fans chanting, "Let's go, Yankees!" in Baltimore not be rewarded. For once.
25

17

19

19.1

19.7

18.7

.518

.537

24.4%

32.3%

56.7%

-0.0%

2.6%

What would the Boston media do if Josh Beckett came out and said the secret to his seven shutout innings of nine-strikeout ball was fried chicken and video games between innings?
26

23

14

22.1

20.5

19.8

.577

.558

35.4%

25.1%

60.4%

-1.0%

3.0%

Tim Hudson's gritty, gutty performance was made possible by hard work and by him being white.
27

18

19

18.5

18.3

19.0

.499

.479

38.5%

23.8%

62.3%

1.6%

3.5%

Cliff Lee since returning from the disabled list: 14 innings, 10 hits, three runs, two walks, 16 strikeouts.
28

16

20

15.6

15.8

16.0

.441

.421

21.5%

34.2%

55.7%

1.2%

4.4%

The Mets pitcher was named, "Gee." The Brewers pitcher was named, "Greinke" You tell me who won. (Correct.)
29

24

12

21.7

21.9

21.9

.622

.603

24.2%

7.3%

31.5%

-0.7%

6.0%

If Matt Kemp misses 15 games, he will still be on pace to hit 40 home runs. Last year, he led the NL with 39.
30

18

18

17.4

16.4

15.7

.468

.488

66.6%

9.9%

76.5%

1.0%

6.4%

Hey, remember that really awful offensive thing Delmon Young said? Ha ha! Me neither!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
HalfStreet

I hope folks get the snark in your comment on Tim Hudson. It was spot-on; hopefully the more literal minded among your readers won't require an explanation.

May 16, 2012 10:42 AM
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