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Prospectus Hit List for May 11



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 10 Hit List for May 14
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Astros have playoff odds that are not zero!

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

20

11

23.0

23.7

22.8

.722

.705

70.2%

20.2%

90.4%

-0.4%

6.0%

The Cardinals lead baseball with a team BABIP of .331. GM John Mozeliak got a call from A's GM Billy Beane, who asked for "my .031 back."
2

21

11

22.7

23.4

22.8

.702

.719

78.2%

17.9%

96.1%

-0.2%

4.2%

It's difficult to win when the first three hitters homer. The pros call that "starting off in a hole."
3

19

12

17.2

19.5

19.3

.605

.586

4.5%

7.6%

12.0%

0.1%

4.6%

Stephen Strasburg struck out 13 Pirates and, at one point, seven straight. He has 51 strikeouts on the season, two fewer than C.C. Sabathia in 7 1/3 fewer innings.
4

20

11

18.2

18.2

18.7

.605

.586

20.8%

6.1%

26.9%

-0.6%

13.0%

I challenge you to get through this sentence without yawning: The Dodgers lead the majors in holds.
5

15

17

16.8

17.7

17.9

.527

.547

8.8%

7.1%

15.9%

-1.1%

-9.2%

White Sox pitchers have the lowest groundball rate of any team, at 39 percent.
6

19

13

18.4

17.5

16.4

.557

.537

34.7%

22.7%

57.4%

-0.3%

5.2%

The Braves have to be encouraged. Both the Nationals and Mets can't keep this up and the Phillies and Marlins are both lost at sea.
7

20

12

17.2

17.2

17.2

.559

.579

16.6%

30.3%

46.8%

-1.3%

-4.6%

Ben Zobrist has played two different positions this season, down from seven two years ago. Though, if you count Joe Maddon's shifts as different positions then he's played 73.
8

18

14

18.4

17.2

16.6

.549

.568

1.3%

5.2%

6.5%

0.2%

1.8%

Henderson Alvarez has a 2.61 ERA in 48 1/3 innings. During that time, he has struck out 14 hitters and walked 13.
9

17

14

16.8

17.0

16.5

.543

.563

57.9%

24.2%

82.1%

0.9%

-6.3%

Alex Rodriguez' slugging percentages from 2007 to now: .645, .573, .532, .506, .461, .432.
10

18

13

15.5

16.5

15.0

.524

.544

30.9%

15.4%

46.3%

0.6%

7.2%

Derek Lowe faced 28 Red Sox hitters. Twenty-five of them put the ball into play. Eighteen of those were ground balls.
11

20

12

17.4

16.3

15.1

.537

.557

0.6%

2.6%

3.2%

0.0%

0.7%

The first three Orioles homered, the first time that had happened for Baltimore since ... oh, 2010. Unimpressive factoid.
12

14

17

16.5

15.8

16.9

.510

.490

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros' 138 runs would be the second-most in every division except the American League East.
13

15

16

14.6

15.6

16.4

.496

.476

36.6%

7.3%

43.9%

0.1%

-10.4%

One thing Tim Lincecum has continued to do during this trying season is strike batters out. He has 41 in 36 2/3 so far.
14

14

18

15.9

15.6

13.6

.462

.482

21.6%

52.1%

73.7%

0.8%

0.9%

Chris Iannetta is an example of why batting average can be misleading. Hitting .197, he has a .706 OPS and a 102 OPS+.
15

14

18

14.8

15.6

17.5

.484

.464

25.1%

7.0%

32.0%

0.8%

-0.1%

Jason Kubel has seen 537 pitches, the most of any Diamondback and 29th in baseball. He has never walked in more than 10 percent of his plate appearances, but he is now.
16

15

18

16.0

15.6

15.2

.468

.488

0.1%

0.6%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.0%

How visible and exciting a team are the Mariners? Yesterday, they had to stand at the head of the bank line for 15 minutes until the teller noticed them.
17

16

15

15.6

15.6

15.8

.508

.488

21.4%

20.3%

41.7%

0.1%

-9.9%

The Marlins have issued 20 intentional walks. The next closest team is the Padres with 14.
18

12

19

14.2

15.0

14.0

.445

.465

23.6%

31.3%

54.8%

-0.6%

-1.1%

The Red Sox starting rotation is like a high-priced call girl: not cheap, and everyone can hit that.
19

13

18

13.2

14.9

17.1

.470

.450

0.3%

2.0%

2.3%

-0.2%

0.7%

The Cubs have been caught steeling 13 times, while the Dodgers have been caught 14 times. The Cubs are so bad they can't even lead the league in getting caught stealing.
20

16

14

15.7

14.2

14.8

.506

.486

13.2%

33.6%

46.9%

0.2%

3.6%

Bronson Arroyo is third in the league in K/BB ratio. It was either that or world peace. Nice wish, Bronson!
21

14

18

15.0

14.1

15.0

.453

.434

35.5%

21.7%

57.3%

0.1%

-3.6%

Yesterday was a good day in Phillie nation. The Phillies were off so they couldn't lose and nobody was attacked by a wolverine. Gotta start somewhere, right?
22

18

13

13.6

13.9

15.4

.492

.472

3.9%

5.8%

9.6%

0.3%

1.5%

Jason Bay has 17 strikeouts in 57 plate appearances. David Wright has 17 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances. This is only one reason David Wright is better than Jason Bay.
23

16

15

15.6

13.9

13.3

.475

.495

59.6%

11.8%

71.4%

0.9%

7.3%

The Tigers scored 10 runs or more in two of their first three games. Since then, they've scored 5 runs or more in nine of 28 games.
24

16

16

13.9

13.0

12.8

.435

.455

0.1%

1.0%

1.1%

0.1%

0.2%

The A's lead the American League in being bad at slugging percentage.
25

11

21

13.0

13.0

14.0

.398

.379

9.3%

4.0%

13.3%

-0.8%

-8.8%

The Padres have the fewest homers but have offset that somewhat by drawing the second-most walks in baseball.
26

13

18

12.4

12.2

12.7

.406

.387

16.1%

36.8%

52.9%

0.3%

-1.9%

The top 10 players in OPS is an odd group, including Bryan LaHair, Josh Willingham, and Adam LaRoche. But hey, at least Ryan Braun's 1.033 made the list.
27

13

17

14.4

12.1

12.9

.437

.418

8.2%

3.6%

11.8%

0.2%

0.7%

Pitcher Drew Pomeranz has three hits in five at-bats including a homer. His OPS of 1.800 is almost twice that of Carlos Gonzalez's .968.
28

11

19

11.7

11.8

11.6

.385

.404

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Jeff Francoeur is third on the Royals in walks.
29

14

17

12.3

11.1

12.9

.405

.386

0.1%

1.3%

1.4%

-0.0%

-0.5%

Only three hitters in the Pirates lineup were hitting over .260, which is the same number that were hitting under .210.
30

8

23

8.8

9.7

10.2

.296

.313

0.5%

0.4%

0.9%

-0.2%

-0.9%

"It's time for Positive Twins News, the happy show were we only include the happiest Twins notes! Josh Willingham is not hurt and is hitting .313/.421/.646. Thanks for joining us!"

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
CSPitt17130

2010 was the last time the O's hit back-to-back-to-back home runs, but it was the first time any AL team had ever started the game with three consecutive home runs and the first time since the Brewers did it in 2007. Interestingly enough, J.J. Hardy was involved in that trio too.

May 11, 2012 06:48 AM
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Deadheadbrewer

I'm loving this, and part of my interest lies in seeing if you can maintain this high level the entire season. It's not unlike watching the musicians who decide that they will perform tunes on stage for 24 straight hours.

May 11, 2012 07:51 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

It's an endurance test, and I will wiiiiiinnnn... [falls asleep]

May 11, 2012 09:31 AM
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rtward

I hate to be a homer, but is there some explanation for why this projects the Phillies to be more than 5 games better than the Braves over the 130 games remaining?

That's equivalent to something like 6.5 games over the course of a full season. I don't remember there being near that discrepancy in their projections at the beginning of the season.

May 11, 2012 08:57 AM
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