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Prospectus Hit List for May 10



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 9 Hit List for May 11
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Can the Astros break out of 0 percent playoff odds?

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

20

11

23.0

23.7

22.8

.722

.705

70.2%

20.6%

90.8%

0.8%

6.6%

The Cardinals have scored exactly twice the runs that the Pirates have.
2

20

10

21.4

22.1

21.7

.710

.726

79.3%

17.1%

96.4%

-0.2%

4.7%

Negotiating with Josh Hamilton after a four-homer game might not be the strongest strategy for the Rangers. At least wait until after a two-homer game.
3

18

12

16.5

18.3

18.2

.592

.572

4.4%

7.6%

12.0%

-0.9%

4.6%

When the Nationals and PIrates get together, you'll have to set your barn on fire yourself.
4

20

11

18.2

18.2

18.7

.605

.586

21.1%

6.4%

27.5%

1.9%

14.1%

You get the feeling that if the Dodgers opened an inning with a runner at third, Don Mattingly would bunt him back to second.
5

15

17

16.8

17.7

17.9

.527

.547

9.3%

7.7%

17.0%

-0.1%

-9.3%

Jake Peavy (1.89 ERA, 2.16 FIP) is so good the White Sox might think about moving him to the bullpen.
6

19

13

18.4

17.5

16.4

.557

.537

34.8%

22.9%

57.7%

0.2%

4.0%

In seven innings Tim Hudson struck out one batter. That batter? Cubs pitcher Paul Maholm.
7

20

11

16.9

17.1

17.1

.573

.593

17.6%

30.5%

48.1%

0.7%

-2.4%

Used to be beating the Yankees in the ninth was impossible owing to Mariano Rivera. Now that it's super easy to do so, the Rays should get no credit whatsoever for scoring four and coming from behind Wednesday.
8

17

14

17.5

16.4

16.0

.539

.559

1.6%

4.7%

6.3%

-0.2%

2.1%

Brandon Morrow's strikeout totals over the past seven games: 3, 4, 2, 3, 9, 8, 10. Detect a pattern?
9

16

14

16.1

16.2

15.5

.531

.551

56.7%

24.4%

81.2%

0.8%

-7.7%

Lost in the hullabaloo over David Robertson's blown save is that Mariano Rivera blew saves occasionally too. [checks record book] Oh, no wait. He didn't. Never mind.
10

14

17

16.5

15.8

16.9

.510

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have given Jed Lowrie a chance at shortstop. He's hitting .301/.387/.473, and is fourth in baseball in OPS by shortstops. Check back later to see if his strong defensive metrics hold up.
11

15

16

14.6

15.6

16.4

.496

.476

36.2%

7.6%

43.8%

-0.3%

-11.2%

Over his past six starts, Tim Lincecum somehow has a 5.46 ERA while somehow not allowing a home run.
12

14

18

15.9

15.6

13.6

.462

.482

20.7%

52.3%

72.9%

-1.7%

-0.2%

Albert Pujols is thisclose to the Mendoza line. Who would have thought that would be good news?
13

17

13

14.5

15.6

14.3

.511

.531

30.8%

14.9%

45.7%

-1.3%

6.4%

Goodness gracious, Asdrubal Cabrera: .337/.420/.531.
14

14

18

14.8

15.6

17.5

.484

.464

23.9%

7.3%

31.3%

-0.9%

-2.3%

JJ Puts allowed four home runs in 2010, and he allowed four home runs in 2011, and he has allowed four home runs in 2012.
15

15

18

16.0

15.6

15.2

.468

.488

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.0%

0.1%

I forgot to mention before the season that Jason Vargas (2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is a great sleeper candidate. I was thinking it. I just forgot to tell you. Swear!
16

16

15

15.6

15.6

15.8

.508

.488

20.9%

20.6%

41.6%

0.2%

-9.4%

The Marlins just played nine games in a row on the road. They won eight of them.
17

19

11

16.7

15.5

14.2

.546

.565

0.6%

2.6%

3.1%

-0.3%

0.4%

Radar revealed the Baltimore area to be completely clear, except for one patch of steady rain over Camden Yards. After getting beat by a combined score of 24-6 the past two games, one wonders if the Orioles were in any way responsible... nah.
18

13

18

13.2

14.9

17.1

.470

.450

0.3%

2.1%

2.5%

-0.1%

0.9%

The sooner Bryan LaHair goes back to being nobody, the sooner we can all open up our browsers without fear of LaHair-related puns.
19

12

18

14.2

14.8

13.8

.456

.476

23.5%

31.9%

55.4%

1.3%

-0.3%

Clay Buchholz has allowed 33 earned runs. The Nationals' entire rotation has allowed 47 earned runs.
20

16

14

15.7

14.2

14.8

.506

.486

13.0%

33.6%

46.6%

0.0%

2.5%

Aroldis Chapman hit 100.6 mph. against the Brewers, with an 87.2 mph slider. How do you hit that? The Brewers don't know either.
21

14

18

15.0

14.1

15.0

.453

.434

36.4%

20.8%

57.2%

-1.6%

-1.1%

When the Phillies score six runs they're supposed to win by five, not lose by four.
22

18

13

13.6

13.9

15.4

.492

.472

3.5%

5.8%

9.3%

-0.3%

0.7%

Even after beating the Phillies three straight, the Mets' run differential is worse than the Phillies' run differential. The Mets' record, meanwhile, is 18-13. The Phillies are 14-18.
23

15

15

14.7

13.0

12.4

.459

.479

59.1%

11.4%

70.5%

0.4%

6.9%

Is Austin Jackson this good (.319/.391/.513)? Yes! (Maybe!) ((No!))
24

11

21

13.0

13.0

14.0

.398

.379

10.4%

3.7%

14.1%

0.8%

-7.8%

Sure the Padres are in last place now, but would they be much better with Heath Bell (278 blow saves) and Adrian Gonzalez (.279/.341/.393 )?
25

16

15

13.8

12.8

12.7

.446

.466

0.1%

1.0%

1.0%

0.2%

0.2%

Other than one well-timed hit, Brandon Inge shows no signs of not being Brandon Inge
26

13

18

12.4

12.2

12.7

.406

.387

16.2%

36.4%

52.6%

1.3%

-1.7%

Zack Greinke gave up two hits and struck out 11 over eight innings while walking nobody. If the Brewers remain in last place, will he become available?
27

13

17

14.4

12.1

12.9

.437

.418

8.4%

3.3%

11.7%

-1.4%

0.8%

Jason Giambi (2 for 2, walk, .412 OBP) is the old market inefficiency.
28

11

19

11.7

11.8

11.6

.385

.404

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

-0.1%

-0.0%

While the Red Sox muffed fly balls, handing runs to their opponents, the Royals played solid defense. Odd from the team that employs Yuniesky Betancourt.
29

14

16

12.0

11.1

12.9

.417

.398

0.2%

1.2%

1.4%

0.0%

-0.6%

By ERA, the Pirates have the ninth-best pitching staff in baseball this year. It's a shame they're paired with the 412th best offense.
30

8

22

8.7

9.5

10.2

.303

.320

0.6%

0.6%

1.2%

0.3%

-0.9%

When Carl Pavano and his flying mustache of sexiness can't win a game, you know the team is in trouble.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
jedjethro

I enjoy the Daily HIt List comments.

May 10, 2012 06:36 AM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks! Glad to hear it.

May 10, 2012 09:21 AM
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cmellinger

I rarely comment ... but Hit List brightens my day too. (Just in case, the Boss reads the Comments.)

May 10, 2012 09:36 AM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

He does. Never hurts to hear nice things anyway. Thanks for reading and commenting.

May 10, 2012 14:07 PM
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dodgerdan

Mattingly thinks Uribe can bunt. I am amazed how he continually asks Uribe to bunt even when it is called for. Sure,a major leaguer should be able to bunt but Uribe cannot do it. Why ask someone to do something that he is not capable of doing. Funny stuff and on the money.

May 10, 2012 17:26 PM
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