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Prospectus Hit List for May 8



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 7 Hit List for May 9
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Brewers are bad.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

19

10

17.0

15.7

14.4

.570

.589

0.9%

3.5%

4.4%

-0.1%

2.2%

When a pitcher cuts his ERA in half it's a good thing. However, Brian Matusz's ERA last season was 10.69, so cutting it in half isn't quite that impressive a feat.
2

19

10

16.8

16.8

17.0

.600

.580

14.4%

5.0%

19.4%

4.3%

4.7%

With three hits in three at-bats, Matt Kemp is now hitting .406. Where have I heard that number before?
3

19

10

20.3

21.2

20.8

.701

.717

77.1%

19.2%

96.4%

2.6%

3.5%

At their current pace, the Rangers will outscore their competition by 323 runs. Last year, the Yankees led baseball at 210.
4

19

10

15.8

15.7

15.6

.569

.589

17.6%

29.4%

47.0%

-13.4%

-10.8%

If you took the teams in the AL East, ranked them by runs scored, and then flipped it, that would be the standings.
5

18

10

15.9

17.4

17.4

.613

.594

5.2%

8.8%

14.0%

2.1%

5.5%

If Bryce Harper accomplishes nothing else on this mortal coil he will have revealed to us all the following great truth: Cole Hamels is a kind of a dope.
6

18

12

17.2

16.3

15.4

.557

.537

35.6%

23.4%

59.1%

0.3%

7.2%

"No team has scored more runs than the Braves" is a sentence that until recently would have got you committed.
7

18

11

21.0

22.0

21.1

.707

.691

69.4%

19.9%

89.3%

-0.8%

4.5%

Projecting out his stats, Lance Lynn will win 36 games, have dinner on the table by 7 p.m., strike out 222 hitters, finish painting that bookshelf, throw 238 innings, and have the lawn cut including the part around the deck. Not bad for a back-of-the-rotation guy.
8

17

11

14.4

15.0

13.8

.537

.557

29.9%

14.0%

43.9%

2.4%

5.5%

Nick Hagadone came to Cleveland in the 2009 deal that sent Victor Martinez to Boston. That Hagadone got his first big-league save on Monday is a reminder that we can't judge trades eight seconds after they happen.
9

16

13

16.6

15.4

15.2

.545

.564

1.6%

4.9%

6.5%

-1.7%

2.4%

Hilarious party trick: bet someone they can't name the player who has both the highest OBP and slugging percentage on the Blue Jays. (Answer: Jeff Mathis)
10

16

13

11.8

12.6

13.8

.467

.447

3.6%

5.8%

9.4%

2.1%

-0.1%

Despite being outscored by 25 runs on the season, the Mets are three games over .500. The Astros have outscored their opponents by 10 and are three games under .500.
11

15

13

15.2

13.8

14.4

.521

.501

13.8%

32.1%

45.9%

5.4%

1.3%

Answer: Bronson Arroyo threw 6 1/3 innings striking out nine and walking just one. Question: things that can be explained by the Supermoon.
12

15

14

14.5

14.3

14.9

.506

.486

19.4%

20.8%

40.2%

-5.6%

-9.0%

Carlos Zambrano picked up his first win of the year. Those of you who had "Would get into a fist fight with the fish sculpture first," it's time to pay up.
13

15

13

15.2

15.6

14.7

.540

.559

53.3%

24.8%

78.1%

2.9%

-10.7%

Known for his plate patience, Mark Teixeira has walked in just 6 percent of his plate appearances, five percentage points below his career average.
14

15

14

12.7

11.8

11.9

.442

.462

0.1%

0.9%

1.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Batting average is a flawed stat, but sometimes it can tell you something useful. The A's are hitting .213, lowest in baseball and .070 points behind the Rangers.
15

14

16

14.9

15.3

17.0

.510

.490

26.5%

8.2%

34.7%

2.8%

3.4%

It's odd how one day you're a leadoff hitter and the next you're hitting eighth. The middle of the order must not be disturbed!
16

14

16

14.8

13.4

14.3

.471

.451

36.1%

21.6%

57.8%

-8.6%

-0.9%

While closing may be a skill, the three-run homer that Jonathan Papelbon gave up in the ninth inning is a reminder that, sometimes, anyone can do it.
17

14

15

13.9

14.9

15.5

.503

.483

38.5%

7.6%

46.2%

-7.0%

-8.1%

Aubrey Huff's return to baseball after dealing with anxiety attacks should be applauded. Giving him a two-year, $22 million deal in the first place is another matter.
18

14

17

15.2

14.8

14.3

.470

.490

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-1.2%

0.0%

Steve Delabar, the former substitute teacher, has 20 strikeouts against two walks in his first full season.
19

14

14

13.6

11.9

11.2

.452

.472

59.3%

10.9%

70.2%

6.4%

6.4%

Max Scherzer's strikeout rate is the highest in baseball and exactly four strikeouts per nine innings higher than Justin Verlander.
20

13

17

15.0

15.4

13.7

.475

.495

22.7%

52.6%

75.3%

-5.2%

7.1%

As you read this, we are now in Day 2 of the Albert Pujols homerless drought.
21

13

16

15.6

15.0

16.0

.514

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

By run differential, the Astros are better than the Phillies, the Red Sox, the Diamondbacks, the Angels, and the Tigers. In your face, those teams!
22

13

17

14.8

16.3

16.3

.503

.523

9.8%

7.8%

17.6%

-3.7%

-7.6%

Sure, he's gotten beat up twice since, but that's because Phil Humber used up all his perfect in one game. If given the choice you'd do the same thing.
23

12

16

13.5

13.9

13.2

.470

.490

26.6%

30.6%

57.2%

11.4%

2.6%

If Adrian Gonzalez's slugging percentage was his on-base percentage he'd be having a nice start to the year. It isn't, so he's not.
24

12

17

12.4

14.2

16.2

.473

.453

0.3%

2.3%

2.6%

1.0%

1.3%

While with Seattle in 2008, a 25-year-old Bryan LaHair hit .250/.315/.346 in 150 plate appearances. He didn't see a major-league pitch again until a cup of coffee last September. This year he's hitting .388/.479/.800. Did you hear Albert Pujols just hit his first homer?
25

12

16

10.6

10.1

11.8

.397

.378

0.2%

1.1%

1.3%

-0.2%

-1.4%

The A's, Padres, and Twins have yet to pass 100 runs on the season. Two of them (the A's and Padres) play in giant pitcher's havens, and one of them is barely of major-league quality (Twins). They have all outscored the Pirates by at least 17 runs.
26

12

16

13.3

11.0

11.5

.426

.407

10.6%

3.7%

14.2%

6.8%

2.5%

Jamie Moyer has the lowest ERA of anyone who has started a game for the Rockies this season.
27

12

17

11.0

10.7

11.3

.389

.370

16.3%

35.2%

51.5%

3.1%

-4.4%

Ryan Braun is fourth in slugging percentage in the National League behind Matt Kemp, Jay Bruce, and Bryan LaHair. So he's got a good shot at finishing at least third is the point.
28

10

20

12.2

12.3

13.8

.402

.383

10.0%

4.3%

14.3%

-5.7%

-6.3%

After hitting well for a 24-year-old in Petco Park last season, Cameron Maybin is struggling. Credit to the Padres for sticking with him, as Maybin has missed just one game on the season and has the second-most plate appearances on the team.
29

9

19

10.4

10.7

10.6

.363

.382

0.4%

0.3%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.3%

Hindsight is 20/20, but if you thought the Royals could compete with this starting rotation you might want to get your eyes checked anyway.
30

7

21

7.7

8.0

8.4

.278

.294

0.6%

0.5%

1.1%

-0.1%

-1.0%

Announcer: "The Twins are 7-21 and have been outscored by an incredible 64 runs, but are they really this bad?" Me: "Yup."

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
thegeneral13

The Twins are 2 million times more likely to make the playoffs than I am to win the Powerball. Those sound like pretty good odds to me.

May 08, 2012 06:40 AM
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bobbygrace

On this note, how is it that the Astros' playoff percentage is 0.0%?

Not that I disagree....

May 08, 2012 08:43 AM
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Drakos

The encouraging thing about Maybin is that his poor batting line is driven by a low (for him) BABIP. His K rate and ISO are the same as last year and his walk rate is much higher than it's ever been in the big leagues. As a result his wOBA and wRC+ are the same as last year. So, if his walk rate and BABIP do regress back to his norm it's looking like last year wasn't a fluke.

May 08, 2012 07:35 AM
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OonBoon

Boy, I'll bet Seattle would like to have Bryan LaHair and Mike Morse back. Oops

May 08, 2012 07:41 AM
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reznick

By W3, the Cubs will win 16.2/29 * 162 > 90 games this year. I'm a dedicated fan, but I find that a little hard to believe.

May 08, 2012 08:59 AM
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CRP13

Are the playoff odds updated daily? It doesn't pass the smell test that the Astros are at 0% and the Brewers are at 52% after one month of play. Nobody thinks the Astros are going to make the playoffs, but at this point their odds gotta be better than 0%.

May 08, 2012 11:45 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I don't do the numbers so I can't speak to them specifically, but after one month of a six month season, why doesn't it pass the smell test? It passes my smell test.

May 08, 2012 13:29 PM
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buffum

They have a +10 run differential and are in third place in their division. I expect them to fail, but 0% is an EXTREME outlier with this much season to play.

May 08, 2012 18:52 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Maybe so. It doesn't seem unreasonable to me, but intelligent minds can differ.

May 08, 2012 22:53 PM
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