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Prospectus Hit List for May 7



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 4 Hit List for May 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers' playoff odds drop to 94 percent.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

19

10

15.8

15.7

15.6

.569

.589

28.9%

31.5%

60.4%

-0.4%

3.4%

Matt Moore's line--eight runs in 4 2/3 innings--is positively Red Sox-esque and very un-Rays-like. One wonders if a trade may be in the works.
2

19

9

17.7

16.5

15.2

.611

.630

1.4%

3.1%

4.5%

-0.2%

2.3%

It took 39 innings, but the Orioles swept the Red Sox in Fenway Park for the first time since 1994. DH Chris Davis pitched the 16tha and 17th innings to get the win. That's winning the Baltimore way!
3

18

10

15.9

17.4

17.4

.613

.593

3.6%

8.4%

11.9%

-0.7%

3.2%

After getting hit by a Cole Hamels pitch, Bryce Harper went first to third on a single and then stole home on a pick-off (!). That should be a galvanizing moment for his team. But instead Jayson Werth broke his wrist and they lost.
4

18

10

15.4

15.7

15.7

.579

.559

10.6%

4.6%

15.2%

-1.6%

0.2%

Matt Kemp's sore hamstring limited him to 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter. So pitchers of the world, take note, how to stop Matt Kemp in four easy steps! 1) Hurt his hamstring, 2) get him benched, 3) face him as a pinch-hitter when his hamstring still hurts, 4) hope he doesn't homer.
5

18

10

18.9

19.7

19.3

.678

.695

69.4%

24.4%

93.8%

-0.8%

1.0%

With 11 more strikeouts Sunday, Yu Darvish is now third in strikeouts. It's looking increasingly like there are worse ways the Rangers could have spent their money.
6

18

11

17.1

16.2

15.4

.574

.555

33.2%

25.6%

58.8%

0.9%

5.9%

While he's been a revelation to the Braves so far, Brandon Beachy probably doesn't strike enough hitters out to hold onto his 1.62 ERA. Also he isn't Bob Gibson.
7

17

11

20.3

21.2

20.3

.704

.687

72.3%

17.8%

90.1%

0.7%

5.2%

Jon Jay was the last .400 hitter, but his 1-for-5 Sunday dropped him to .392.
8

16

13

16.6

15.4

15.1

.544

.564

2.2%

6.0%

8.2%

0.3%

3.9%

In the first six years of his career, Jose Bautista hit .238/.329/.400. Then for three years, he hit .272/.404/.591. This year, he's hitting .183/.313/.356. Does this make anyone else nervous? Just a little?
9

15

13

11.0

12.2

13.2

.459

.439

1.9%

5.4%

7.3%

-0.4%

-1.9%

R. A. Dickey is a 37-year-old knuckleballer, but that means he's got six or seven more years of league-average pitching left in him. Knuckleballers years are the opposite of dog years.
10

15

11

13.1

13.6

12.4

.521

.541

30.5%

11.0%

41.4%

0.6%

3.3%

Last year, in 500 at-bats for Tampa Bay, Casey Kotchman hit .306/.378/.422. This year for Cleveland he's hitting .163/.256/.250. This proves the Rays are evil sorcerers.
11

15

14

12.7

11.8

11.8

.442

.462

0.1%

1.0%

1.1%

-0.2%

0.0%

Josh Reddick went 22 games without walking. In the last nine games he's walked four times. OK, that's not a ton but this is Josh Reddick.
12

15

13

15.2

15.6

14.7

.539

.559

49.2%

26.1%

75.2%

0.8%

-13.3%

A quality start from Phil Hughes? Suuuure. Next thing you're going to tell me the moon was 14 percent larger than usual. Ha ha! Nice try.
13

14

14

14.4

15.0

15.6

.526

.506

45.2%

8.0%

53.1%

0.4%

-1.2%

The trade of Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera wasn't met with parades and lollipops, but in the short time he's been in San Francisco Cabrera has hit .313/.370/.443.
14

14

14

13.5

13.2

14.0

.488

.468

20.5%

25.4%

45.9%

-0.0%

-3.1%

Omar Infante has slugged over .420 once in the 10 years prior to this season. He's now slugging .651. Maybe that's where Jose Bautistia left it.
15

14

13

13.2

11.3

10.7

.456

.476

54.7%

9.1%

63.8%

0.4%

-0.3%

The Tigers might be the class of the AL Central but they're probably not any better than the fifth-best team in the American League.
16

14

13

14.1

13.0

13.6

.506

.486

12.0%

28.5%

40.5%

0.5%

-4.7%

Mat Latos' six scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and three walks have got to be like a six-year-old finally waking up to Christmas morning. Here's hoping Santa didn't skimp this Christmas.
17

14

15

14.7

15.3

16.8

.524

.504

24.8%

7.0%

31.9%

-0.3%

0.5%

Willie Bloomquist is possibly the worst hitter in the Diamondbacks lineup so it's understandable that he's leading off. Gotta get him out of the way so the run scoring can start!
18

14

15

14.6

12.8

13.8

.476

.456

40.9%

25.6%

66.4%

0.6%

7.2%

For every walk he issues, Cole Hamels strikes out 7 1/3 hitters, which raises the question: how do you strike out a third of a hitter with Nick Punto out of the National League?
19

13

15

15.5

15.1

16.0

.532

.512

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

In 217 innings for the Phillies, J. A. Happ posted a 3.11 ERA. Since he was dealt to Houston for Roy Oswalt he's thrown 262 2/3 with a 4.91 ERA. At least he looks smart in those new retro uniforms.
20

13

17

14.5

14.4

13.9

.465

.485

0.1%

1.6%

1.7%

0.4%

1.0%

Scoring five runs in a game is an accomplishment for the Mariners, but expectations must be tempered as the outburst came against the Twins, who hand out runs like inoculations during an epidemic.
21

13

15

14.1

15.7

15.7

.522

.542

13.6%

7.7%

21.3%

-0.6%

-4.0%

This isn't exactly the same Jake Peavy who dominated in San Diego but the end result has been the same. You have to wonder how long he can keep the ball in the park with the highest flyball percentage and lowest HR/FB rate of his career.
22

12

16

10.6

10.1

11.7

.396

.377

0.2%

1.3%

1.5%

-0.1%

-0.8%

Jose Tabata may be only 24 and full of talent, but he's also a starting right fielder hitting .239/.293/.326 in the first year of a six-year deal.
23

12

16

11.0

10.6

11.1

.400

.381

15.3%

33.1%

48.3%

-0.2%

-6.0%

The 142 runs Milwaukee has surrendered are the second-most given up in the National League. They're better only than Colorado, so basically the Brewers are the worst defensive team that doesn't have a hugely unfair disadvantage in that department.
24

12

15

12.9

10.7

11.1

.432

.412

5.0%

2.4%

7.4%

-0.3%

-3.6%

Wilin Rosario (one walk, four home runs) has found quite the mentor in Ramon Hernandez (one walk, four home runs).
25

12

17

13.9

14.2

12.7

.455

.475

30.4%

50.1%

80.5%

0.4%

11.1%

Pujols homered! Our medium-length regional nightmare is over!
26

11

17

11.5

13.3

15.2

.454

.435

0.2%

1.4%

1.6%

0.0%

0.5%

David DeJesus may not be much of a hitter anymore (or he may be; it's just May!) but he can at least watch four bad ones to achieve the mythical walk-off walk.
27

11

16

12.4

12.5

12.0

.444

.464

18.3%

27.6%

45.9%

-0.9%

-7.6%

Look at the top of the list titled What Is Wrong With The Red Sox and you'll see Clay Buchholz's name. Buchholz has given up five or more runs in each of his six starts. Instead of being a lynchpin in Boston's rotation, he's a white flag of surrender.
28

9

20

11.6

11.5

13.1

.390

.371

14.4%

5.7%

20.1%

0.6%

-1.3%

The Padres' run-scoring efforts are certainly victimized by their home park, where they have a team OPS of .627. But on the road they have a .672 team OPS. I don't think this team can hit.
29

9

18

10.5

11.1

11.0

.384

.403

0.5%

0.3%

0.8%

0.1%

0.4%

Luke Hochevar gave up seven runs in 2 1/3 innings while his mound opponent, Phil Hughes, gave up three in six innings. This has led medical experts to wonder if gopheritis can be transported through mound contact.
30

7

20

7.6

8.0

8.2

.286

.303

0.7%

0.5%

1.2%

-0.0%

-1.1%

The Twins may be doing the little things right but they're doing the big things wrong.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
buffum

Can someone explain to me the algorithm that believes the White Sox are good?

May 07, 2012 09:06 AM
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BP staff member Colin Wyers

The White Sox do very well in second and third order wins, which look at batting and batting against rather than actual runs scored and allowed. (They're not bad in straight Pythagorean record, either.) As those measures outweigh regular win-loss record, the White Sox will look better. The Adjusted Hit List Factor also includes a boost for playing in the American League - it's derived from historic values, as we haven't had interleague play yet.

May 07, 2012 16:44 PM
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