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Prospectus Hit List for May 4



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 3 Hit List for May 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Rays win a lot, is what we're saying.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

16

9

18.8

19.3

18.8

.729

.713

60.8%

24.2%

85.0%

0.7%

1.7%

What is more amazing? That the Cardinals struck out 11 times against Erik Bedard, or that Bedard didn't hurt himself walking around the mound 11 times.
2

17

8

17.4

18.1

18.0

.706

.722

69.0%

23.0%

92.0%

0.3%

-0.8%

Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, and Koji Uehara have combined to throw 31 2/3 innings without issuing a walk.
3

17

8

13.6

15.0

15.2

.608

.589

8.8%

4.6%

13.4%

-0.0%

-0.2%

The Dodgers have accumulated 3.1 WARP on offense this season. Matt Kemp is responsible for 2.3 of it.
4

13

13

13.4

13.5

15.0

.528

.508

24.2%

8.8%

33.0%

-0.5%

1.9%

With Chris Young down it is probably unfair to criticize, but the insistence on hitting Willie Bloomquist and his .272 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot is perplexing. In case you are wondering, Bloomquist owns a .315 career on-base percentage.
5

12

13

12.8

15.0

14.8

.547

.566

17.5%

8.6%

26.1%

-0.2%

0.3%

The resurgent Adam Dunn has resurged. Hitting .247/.385/.562 can do that for a guy.
6

11

14

14.0

14.0

14.5

.535

.515

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Any chance of being the majors' highest-scoring offense probably went out the window ten years ago when they stopped drafting good players.
7

18

8

14.3

14.2

14.4

.585

.604

15.5%

35.6%

51.1%

0.6%

-6.3%

The Rays have won nine straight home games, 12 straight Wednesday day games played at night, 36 in a row on Inuit holidays, and 412 straight while on nights when I make this stuff up.
8

16

9

14.3

14.6

14.1

.590

.571

2.6%

4.8%

7.4%

0.0%

-11.6%

From the This Dude Can Hit file: Bryce Harper has four doubles in five games.
9

12

13

12.6

13.4

14.1

.521

.501

45.2%

8.7%

53.9%

-1.0%

-4.2%

A middle of the order with Sandoval, Posey and Belt seems like it could get some things done. A middle of the order without Sandoval (broken hamate) or Belt (too darned young) doesn't.
10

15

11

15.2

14.5

13.8

.562

.581

0.6%

4.1%

4.7%

0.5%

0.6%

The Rays may be in first place and the Orioles may be in second, but the third-place Blue Jays have a very encouraging run differential. But if you've been hanging in Toronto bars I'm sure you knew that.
11

16

9

15.2

14.3

13.5

.590

.609

0.5%

2.3%

2.8%

0.1%

-0.1%

Second place right now must feel nice after the year before and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that...
12

13

13

13.2

12.4

13.2

.498

.478

35.6%

23.3%

58.9%

0.6%

0.9%

Joe Blanton's three-hit shutout can only mean one thing: Cliff Lee is dead and his soul has taken over Blanton's body.
13

15

11

14.7

13.4

13.2

.541

.521

29.4%

23.1%

52.5%

-1.2%

4.1%

After scoring 15 runs Wednesday, the Braves were shut out Thursday by Joe Blanton. Still, that's a 7.5 runs-per-game average. Can't knock it.
14

13

12

13.1

13.4

12.8

.523

.543

64.5%

23.9%

88.4%

-0.4%

0.6%

Losing Mariano Rivera won't help any team, and it won't help the Yankees, and it will hurt the Yankees. But New York has the second-lowest bullpen ERA at 1.97. Rivera's ERA is 2.16.
15

9

16

10.2

10.8

12.4

.424

.404

0.3%

1.2%

1.6%

0.0%

0.6%

I was going to comment on how giving up three walks, one hit, and three runs without recording an out shot Carlos Marmol's ERA skyward, but it was 5.19 to begin with.
16

9

17

10.9

10.7

11.9

.409

.390

14.8%

6.8%

21.6%

-0.3%

1.6%

Orlando Hudson leads the majors with four triples. Considering he is hitting .210/.256/.346 he might not get the chance to hit a fifth.
17

13

12

9.4

10.9

11.9

.452

.432

3.0%

5.4%

8.4%

-0.2%

0.7%

The Mets may be 13-12 but they've been outscored by 30 runs, the most in the NL and second most in baseball behind Minnesota.
18

11

16

12.0

12.0

11.7

.433

.452

0.1%

0.7%

0.7%

0.1%

0.1%

Some professions are lost to history. There are no milkmen anymore, and haberdashers are few and far between. That's part of what makes out-maker Chone Figgins unique. He's part of a dying breed of out-makers.
19

11

13

11.9

11.7

11.5

.480

.500

19.0%

36.5%

55.4%

-0.3%

1.4%

Last year in 108 games, Ryan Sweeney had 11 doubles. Through 21 games this year he is your major-league leader with 12.
20

11

14

10.3

9.8

11.4

.425

.405

0.4%

1.9%

2.3%

0.3%

0.4%

Has Pedro Alvarez figured it out? Yeah, he's only got four walks in 74 plate appearances, but after homering again he's slugging .614.
21

11

14

11.1

10.7

11.0

.439

.419

29.4%

22.7%

52.1%

1.1%

5.5%

Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes have bonded. In fact, they made a pact promising neither is allowed to hit over .230 until the other one gets there first.
22

10

16

12.3

12.0

10.8

.434

.453

30.9%

42.1%

73.0%

-0.1%

3.8%

Had the Angels not finally called up Mike Trout a week ago, Brandon Morrow might have carried a no-hitter into the ninth. Trout singled twice, and only one other Angel reached.
23

12

12

11.5

10.4

10.8

.467

.447

15.4%

28.2%

43.5%

-0.5%

-3.1%

Person 1: "Scott Rolen's career can't be over. He just hit a game-winning sac fly!" Person 2: "Was the sac fly worth .200 points of OPS? If not, he's done."
24

13

10

11.4

12.1

10.7

.513

.533

26.2%

11.9%

38.1%

-1.2%

1.5%

Johnny Damon went from unemployed to employed to injured to leadoff hitter? Putting anyone other than one of the top three hitters in the leadoff spot has got to stop.
25

12

12

12.3

10.3

10.4

.468

.448

7.0%

4.1%

11.1%

0.3%

1.2%

Sure, Jamie Moyer may have a 3.14 ERA in the thin air of Colorado, where everyone thought he'd surely get crushed, but he can't do everything. He's hitting .000.
26

8

16

9.6

10.3

10.1

.396

.416

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Jonathan Broxton's shiny closer ERA says he's back, but there are two unearned runs and an underwhelming K rate that say 2009 Broxton is still gone.
27

13

13

11.1

10.2

9.8

.425

.444

0.1%

0.7%

0.8%

-0.0%

-0.5%

The A's have the lowest team OBP in baseball at .282. Not getting on base is the new market ineffic... nah.
28

11

14

9.8

9.2

9.1

.390

.371

23.1%

32.1%

55.2%

0.9%

0.3%

Is it fair to wonder about a team that gets a fair portion of its offense from the .739-slugging George Kottaras and the .500-slugging Carlos Gomez?
29

12

12

11.5

9.1

8.7

.430

.450

54.8%

9.5%

64.4%

0.7%

-0.0%

In 1,446 career plate appearances, Austin Jackson has a .370 BABIP.
30

6

18

7.1

7.5

7.9

.297

.314

1.2%

0.9%

2.1%

0.1%

-0.4%

In 206 innings, Twins pitching has struck out 116, the fewest in baseball by 30.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
Drakos

The fact that the Padres just traded for a AAA second baseman and that Logan Forsythe is about to come back from injury are also good signs that Hudson might not get a chance to hit a fifth triple. At least not with the Padres.

May 04, 2012 06:59 AM
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Drakos

The fact that the Padres just traded for a AAA second baseman and that Logan Forsythe is about to come back from injury are also good signs that Hudson might not get a chance to hit a fifth triple. At least not with the Padres.

May 04, 2012 07:03 AM
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cmac314

Once correction: The Orioles have the division's best run differential, not Toronto.

May 04, 2012 07:31 AM
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BP staff member SamMiller

Thanks, cmac. It has been corrected.

May 04, 2012 09:42 AM
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dodgerken222

Just heard White Sox are moving Sale from starter to closer. I predict this week's no. 8 placement will be high-water mark for Chisox this year.

May 04, 2012 16:04 PM
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