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Prospectus Hit List for May 3



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 2 Hit List for May 4
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which the Yankees and Red Sox are in the AL East cellar.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

15

9

13.6

13.9

13.4

.582

.562

2.6%

4.8%

7.4%

-0.2%

-12.0%

Ian Desmond hit the game-winning homer, but Bryce Harper was your story, going 3-for-4 with two doubles. This just in: dude can play.
2

14

11

14.1

13.5

12.5

.541

.561

0.7%

3.6%

4.2%

0.1%

-0.4%

Good thing Jose Bautista (.180/.321/.337) is skinny enough to hide behind Albert Pujols. You get the feeling in a different year people would be freeeeeeaking out about him.
3

17

8

17.4

18.1

18.0

.706

.722

70.9%

20.8%

91.7%

-0.8%

-1.2%

There should be an updated sign, like at construction sites, outside Rangers Ballpark in Arlington: Michael Young hasn't gone hitless in [ ] days.
4

17

8

13.7

13.5

13.8

.580

.599

15.2%

35.2%

50.5%

-0.7%

-5.9%

James Shields is fourth in strikeouts among starters. This must be him coming back to earth.
5

16

8

18.5

19.0

18.6

.750

.735

62.0%

22.2%

84.2%

-0.7%

0.9%

The Cardinals' league-leading offense is almost wasted in the NL Central.
6

12

12

12.2

13.4

14.1

.539

.519

45.3%

9.6%

54.9%

0.5%

-4.1%

Barry Zito walked seven and struck out one. Order is restored to the universe!
7

11

15

11.7

11.6

11.2

.438

.457

0.1%

0.6%

0.7%

-0.1%

-0.1%

If showing confidence in Chone Figgins gets him to hit .198/.260/.319, what does not showing confidence look like?
8

9

17

10.9

10.7

11.9

.409

.390

14.8%

7.1%

21.9%

1.1%

4.1%

Jeff Suppan is back. This should make Padres fans giddy enough to crack a smile, or at least festively pick their noses.
9

10

14

9.4

9.1

10.5

.406

.387

0.3%

1.7%

2.0%

-0.3%

0.0%

You are more likely to become addicted to drugs you've never tried before than the Pirates are to come back from 12 down after three innings. On Wednesday, they didn't.
10

12

13

12.3

11.2

12.0

.475

.455

34.5%

23.9%

58.3%

-1.0%

0.6%

Roy Halladay gave up eight runs. Pretty sure that is a sign of the apocalypse. So, by the way, is the Phillies scoring 12.
11

13

13

11.1

10.2

9.8

.425

.444

0.1%

0.7%

0.8%

-0.1%

-0.5%

Taking two of three in Boston is an accomplishment. To celebrate, Yoenis Cespedes will roast a live pig while running a marathon backwards under water.
12

13

12

9.4

10.9

11.9

.452

.432

3.2%

5.5%

8.6%

0.2%

1.1%

Box scores with lots of pitching changes can be an adventure. The Mets game looked like the Mets had four batters hitting .000 in their lineup. Only one of them actually batted and yes, he got out.
13

13

11

12.7

12.7

12.3

.528

.548

64.8%

24.1%

88.8%

0.0%

0.8%

Ivan Nova lost his first decision since June 3, 2011, a string of 15 decisions and 21 starts. It was just the second time in those 21 that the Yankees scored fewer than three runs for him.
14

6

18

7.1

7.5

7.9

.297

.314

1.1%

0.9%

2.0%

-0.2%

-0.4%

OK, yeah sure, the Twins just got no-hit, but did you guys know that Twins pitcher Liam Hendricks is from AUSTRALIA?
15

11

14

9.8

9.2

9.1

.390

.371

21.4%

33.0%

54.3%

-0.8%

-1.5%

It's funny how five innings from a mediocre pitcher who hasn't thrown in a year can totally stymie a professional baseball team.
16

10

14

10.5

9.7

9.8

.416

.397

28.0%

23.0%

51.0%

0.9%

3.4%

Heath Bell: three hits and runs without getting an out. Only 2.9 years left at a cost of about $26 million.
17

17

8

13.6

15.0

15.2

.608

.589

8.5%

5.0%

13.4%

-0.7%

-0.5%

The Dodgers lost 8-5. Why? Two reasons: Matt Kemp was walked thrice, and the team didn't want to lull the new ownership group into a false sense of security.
18

7

16

9.0

10.0

9.8

.388

.408

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

0.0%

0.0%

Some teams hit homers to win games in the bottom of the ninth. The Royals hit walk-off infield singles. When you're 7-16 you take what you can get.
19

11

14

14.0

14.0

14.5

.535

.515

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Of the Astros' 18 homers on the year, seven have come in the past four games.
20

12

12

11.5

9.1

8.7

.430

.450

53.8%

9.8%

63.6%

-0.1%

-0.5%

The Tigers are just 3-3 in Justin Verlander's starts. Last year they were 25-9 when Verlander took the hill, but they started 2-4.
21

12

12

12.3

10.3

10.4

.468

.448

6.9%

4.0%

10.8%

0.4%

0.5%

Jason Giambi hit a pinch-hit homer. Late-90's grey-haired sluggers are the new market inefficiency.
22

12

10

10.7

11.7

10.4

.509

.529

27.6%

11.7%

39.3%

2.0%

3.2%

Johnny Damon lasted six innings in his Indians debute, leaving the game because of cramping. That jokes just writes itself, doesn't it?
23

11

12

10.9

10.3

10.8

.467

.448

16.0%

28.1%

44.1%

-0.7%

-1.7%

From the pictures, attendance looks like much less than the announced crowd of 16,000. They were probably all in DC watching Bryce Harper. [checks Nationals attendance.] Nope.
24

9

15

9.8

9.9

11.6

.420

.401

0.3%

1.2%

1.6%

0.1%

0.7%

At some point this year, Theo Epstein is going to ask Cubs fans to "trust the process." That exact point in time will mark a new low for the franchise.
25

12

12

12.6

14.4

14.2

.553

.573

17.3%

9.0%

26.2%

-0.6%

-0.5%

After getting beaten around by Boston in his post-perfecto start, Phil Humber reminded us all that, perfect game or not, he's still Phil Humber. To paraphrase the kids, Humber gonna Humb.
26

11

13

11.9

11.7

11.5

.480

.500

19.0%

36.8%

55.8%

-0.7%

2.2%

Via @TampaBayTK, "For first time since Rays have been a franchise, the Yankees and Red Sox are the bottom two teams in AL East after May 1."
27

16

9

15.2

14.3

13.5

.590

.609

0.4%

2.4%

2.7%

0.1%

0.4%

Great games from Arrieta, Wieters, and Markakis? It sounds like a Baltimore-themed porno flick. Make sure to clean up when you're done, hon.
28

15

10

14.5

13.5

13.1

.561

.541

31.8%

21.9%

53.7%

1.0%

5.7%

If you're going to blow a save, make sure the offense is in the midst of dropping 15 on the opponent. Good job, Craig Kimbrel!
29

13

12

13.0

13.1

14.6

.537

.517

24.5%

9.0%

33.6%

0.1%

2.7%

Joe Saunders is meat loaf. He's white bread. He is 87 octane leaded gasoline. He'll do in a pinch, but you'd probably rather not on any consistent basis.
30

10

15

12.4

12.1

11.1

.456

.476

29.0%

44.1%

73.1%

1.2%

2.7%

Jered Weaver's no-hitter was the 10th in Angels history, the second by an Angel in the past calendar year, and just one more thing for Jered to hold over Jeff during the holidays.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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