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Prospectus Hit List for May 2



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 1 Hit List for May 3
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's not all stale cigarettes and bad beer for the Twins. It's mostly stale cigarettes and bad beer for the Twins.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

17

7

17.6

18.1

18.0

.737

.752

71.0%

21.4%

92.5%

-0.4%

-0.3%

The early American League MVP vote goes to Josh Hamilton and his fancy .395/.438/.744 slash line. Hamilton's personal and injury history and his prodigious production are going to make him an interesting extension candidate.
2

15

8

17.3

17.6

17.2

.730

.713

61.9%

23.0%

84.9%

0.1%

2.0%

I should be less surprised than I am that J.C. Romero is still in the league. He's only 36 and a card-carrying member of the alliance of left-handed relievers, so that's at least another half-decade he'll be bouncing from team to team.
3

15

9

14.1

12.8

12.0

.561

.580

0.4%

2.2%

2.7%

0.4%

0.6%

The Orioles website calls Camden Yards the ballpark that forever changed baseball. Shouldn't it be the ballpark that copied ballparks that forever changed baseball?
4

14

10

14.0

12.9

12.4

.554

.534

28.8%

23.9%

52.8%

0.8%

4.9%

In its free time, Brian McCann's beard fells logs while wearing red flannel.
5

17

7

13.5

14.8

15.0

.628

.609

9.6%

4.6%

14.1%

-0.6%

-0.2%

No team has been caught stealing more than the Dodgers, a fact that would have been more fitting two days ago when Frank McCourt still owned the team.
6

16

8

13.1

12.9

13.2

.575

.595

14.5%

36.7%

51.2%

-6.6%

-4.5%

No time would be good for Evan Longoria to miss a few months, but the month the Rays play five against each of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and three apiece against the Yankees, Orioles, and Braves is especially ill-timed.
7

13

11

13.0

12.4

11.4

.520

.540

0.6%

3.6%

4.2%

0.1%

-0.1%

Jose Bautista hit a home run. Edwin Encarnacion did not. Boy oh boy, you can't predict baseball, am I right?
8

14

9

13.0

13.4

12.8

.579

.559

2.6%

5.0%

7.6%

-1.0%

-12.2%

The Bryce Harper Era is in full swing, but there's something desperate--desperate might not be the right word; optimistic? wreckless?--about depending on a 19-year-old for offense, even if it is such a highly one.
9

10

14

12.7

12.9

13.4

.511

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There is a good chance that this will turn into the Jose Altuve (currently hitting .367/414/.544!) update space. One glance at the Astros roster and you'll understand.
10

13

10

12.7

13.0

12.7

.559

.578

64.9%

23.9%

88.8%

-0.0%

0.7%

Joe Girardi may not have 1,000 managerial wins like Buck Showalter, but he remembers each one of his 475. Said Girardi, "I keep notes for each game on used cocktail napkins right here in my pocket. Never know when you'll need 'em!"
11

13

11

12.6

12.7

14.2

.547

.528

24.2%

9.2%

33.5%

2.1%

1.7%

Joe Saunders has been, by far, the best starting pitcher on the Diamondback's staff, which means that this is some sort of crazy alternate reality and your face is about to get gnawed off by your couch.
12

12

11

12.4

14.5

14.3

.578

.597

17.7%

9.2%

26.9%

1.7%

0.3%

Which is stranger: that Gordon Beckham homered or that the Indians gave up a double when the next hitter's infield pop-up was lost in smoke from celebratory fireworks?
13

12

12

12.0

10.9

11.6

.484

.464

38.1%

21.3%

59.4%

0.7%

3.5%

Fifth-leading Phillies hitter Cole Hamels' bat was strangely silent, but the Phillies managed four runs and the win anyway.
14

12

11

11.8

13.1

13.7

.551

.531

45.1%

9.3%

54.4%

0.1%

-3.9%

After considerable outside pressure to just play the kid, Bruce Bochy finally put Brandon Belt in the starting lineup. He went 0-for-4. You're not helping, Brandon!
15

11

12

11.6

11.1

10.9

.485

.505

19.5%

36.9%

56.4%

1.8%

2.2%

Is it possible that David Ortiz is hitting .386 and flying under what must be a highly ineffective radar?
16

11

12

11.5

9.5

9.5

.451

.432

6.8%

3.6%

10.4%

-1.2%

0.3%

The Rockies have both scored and allowed the second-most runs in the NL.
17

11

14

11.3

11.2

10.7

.442

.462

0.1%

0.7%

0.8%

0.3%

0.2%

A 4-for-4 night and all of a sudden Jesus Montero is hitting .294/.303.459.
18

12

11

11.1

8.8

8.5

.439

.458

54.3%

9.4%

63.7%

-0.1%

-1.8%

Last night's win was Jim Leyland's 1,600th. To celebrate, he sent Buck Showalter a flaming bag of dog poo with a note that said, "Good luck, rookie."
19

9

15

10.8

10.1

9.1

.406

.425

28.8%

43.1%

71.9%

3.6%

3.1%

I got all excited when I saw Albert Pujols had two hits and a walk yesterday but actually it turns out that was Torii Hunter's line. Whoops. (Pujols went 0-for-4.)
20

11

11

10.7

10.5

11.0

.491

.471

15.3%

29.5%

44.8%

0.2%

-0.6%

Aroldis Chapman's strikeout rate is three times higher than Bronson Arroyo's, but Arroyo's walk rate is more than four times smaller.
21

12

13

10.4

9.9

9.5

.417

.437

0.1%

0.8%

0.9%

-0.1%

-0.3%

Jarrod Parker shut down one of the hotter lineups in baseball. Now all he's got to do is learn how to hit at an MVP level and the A's will make the playoffs.
22

10

13

10.0

10.0

11.3

.449

.429

0.4%

1.9%

2.3%

-0.4%

0.9%

Pedro Alvarez has a .222 batting average and a .258 OBP. He also, after homering Tuesday, has the same isolated power as Josh Hamilton.
23

9

14

9.9

9.0

8.9

.400

.381

27.2%

22.9%

50.0%

0.8%

1.1%

When the Marlins and the Giants get together, you know that any more than four runs could very well cause a rip in the space-time continuum.
24

11

10

9.9

10.7

9.4

.487

.507

26.6%

10.8%

37.4%

-1.0%

-0.3%

Ubaldo Jimenez has 14 strikeouts and 20 walks in 28 innings. That's worth [pulls out abacus] [20 minutes pass] not much.
25

11

13

9.8

9.0

8.9

.404

.384

22.2%

33.0%

55.1%

-0.8%

-1.4%

After another 0-for-4, Aramis Ramirez is down to .205/.253/.364.
26

8

17

9.8

9.8

11.0

.386

.367

14.2%

6.6%

20.8%

0.1%

2.1%

After a scoreless seven innings by Edinson Volquez and Shaun Marcum, of course the game would turn on a pinch-hit, two-run Mark Kotsay homer. Of course it would.
27

13

11

9.6

11.1

12.2

.477

.457

3.3%

5.2%

8.5%

-1.1%

1.3%

If nothing else, David Wright's .395/.495/.566 line is reestablishing his trade value.
28

8

15

9.1

8.7

10.5

.395

.376

0.3%

1.2%

1.5%

0.1%

0.6%

The Yankees have 37, the Cardinals have 24, and the Angels have 17 of what? Answer: Home runs, and the Cubs have 9 and that's counting the one their older brother gave to them after they threw a fit.
29

6

16

8.4

9.4

9.2

.375

.394

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

0.1%

0.1%

The Royals are 0-10 at home, but fortunately for them today's game is on the road, where they're 6-6. No, it's not the '27 Yankees, but it's not 0-10.
30

6

17

7.5

8.2

8.7

.330

.348

1.2%

1.1%

2.3%

0.2%

0.3%

It's not all stale cigarettes and bad beer for the Twins. Josh Willingham leads all of baseball in being hit by pitches!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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