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Prospectus Hit List for May 1



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 30 Hit List for May 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Rangers are so doggone good we got too excited and made a Yu/you joke.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

6

16

7.4

8.4

8.8

.349

.367

1.3%

0.8%

2.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

The Twins have given up 124 runs, tied with Boston for most in baseball. But they've scored 40 fewer runs than Boston. That won't work long term or really ever.
2

7

17

9.1

9.1

10.2

.370

.351

14.2%

6.5%

20.7%

-0.7%

1.8%

How bad are the Padres? They're so bad they're not even bad enough to be the worst in baseball. That's bad.
3

8

15

9.9

8.8

8.0

.377

.396

24.4%

43.8%

68.3%

-1.2%

-1.1%

Jokes that won't last long so you'd better use them now: Erick Aybar is so bad he's even worse than Albert Pujols.
4

8

14

9.3

8.7

8.5

.392

.373

26.5%

22.8%

49.3%

0.3%

-1.9%

Heath Bell has not given up a run in four of his eight relief appearances. Nope, he has given up two runs in four of his eight relief appearances.
5

6

15

8.5

9.4

9.1

.393

.412

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

-0.0%

-0.1%

Jonathan Sanchez has walked 17 in 17 1/3 innings. So close!
6

8

15

9.1

8.7

10.5

.395

.376

0.2%

1.1%

1.3%

0.2%

0.6%

I just made up a stat to show you how ineffective starter Chris Volstad has been: Strikeout/Earned Run ratio. Volstad is at 20/19.
7

11

13

9.6

9.3

9.0

.405

.424

0.1%

0.9%

1.0%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Josh Reddick has two walks in 90 plate appearances.
8

11

12

9.5

8.9

8.7

.414

.395

22.3%

33.6%

55.9%

1.6%

0.2%

Ryan Braun became the first player to hit three homers in a game at Petco Park. They may move the fences in next season so remember, so far, there is only one.
9

11

11

10.0

7.8

7.7

.415

.434

54.5%

9.3%

63.8%

-0.3%

-1.6%

After absolutely destroying the Red Sox to open the season, the Tigers have gone 2-8 and are back at .500. The Red Sox have somehow regained their footing and clawed back to 11-11 as well. Baseball is weird.
10

11

13

11.0

10.6

9.9

.443

.462

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.0%

Via Jonathan Gantt of the Rays' communications department, Felix Hernandez since 2010 has received one run or no runs of support in 43 percent of his starts.
11

11

11

11.1

9.2

9.2

.460

.440

8.0%

3.7%

11.7%

0.7%

1.0%

The 36-year-old Marco Scutaro is hitting .259/.315/.329, so sure, there's your leadoff hitter right there.
12

10

12

9.8

9.8

11.1

.462

.443

0.6%

2.1%

2.7%

0.3%

1.1%

The Pirates scored nine runs, or 16 percent of their season total. It's akin to the Rangers scoring 20 runs in a game. Or maybe 40 in a game. Time to re-stock that shelter in your back yard.
13

11

12

11.2

10.4

11.0

.474

.454

37.3%

21.4%

58.7%

-0.5%

3.4%

How bad is the Phillies offense? By OPS, their fifth-leading hitter is Cole Hamels.
14

9

14

11.9

11.7

12.3

.488

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Poor Astros are shocking the world with the fifth-best run differential in the NL and nobody knows or cares because they're still on pace to lose 99 games.
15

11

11

10.7

10.5

11.0

.491

.471

15.2%

29.4%

44.6%

-0.6%

0.4%

Joey Votto is striking out in 20.4 percent of his plate appearances. That's 5 percentage points higher than last year. Joey Votto is trying to lull the NL into a false sense of security.
16

11

11

11.3

10.7

10.6

.494

.514

17.2%

37.4%

54.6%

1.1%

2.2%

Anyone having seen David Ortiz hit this year would have a hard time believing he A) is 36, B) has a 25 percent line-drive rate (it has to be at least four times higher), and C) is not a cyborg from the planet Remulak.
17

13

10

9.4

11.2

12.4

.500

.480

3.6%

5.9%

9.5%

0.4%

2.5%

The Mets' 6-2 record in one-run games is the best in baseball. Or, in stock market speak: sell, sell, sell!
18

12

11

12.5

11.6

10.6

.507

.527

0.6%

3.5%

4.1%

-0.2%

-1.0%

Another 0-for-4 from Jose Bautista and another home run from Edwin Encarnacion. The team's wins makes sense; it's how they get there that has been screwy.
19

11

9

9.9

10.6

9.3

.510

.530

27.2%

11.2%

38.4%

0.3%

1.3%

Can you guess which team leads all of baseball in walks with 101, 20 more than the next team? OK, yeah, the placement of this question kinda gives it away.
20

12

11

11.7

11.6

13.1

.526

.506

22.9%

8.4%

31.3%

-0.0%

0.1%

Not counting rookie Patrick Corbin, the Diamondbacks starting lineup included four players hitting under .200.
21

14

9

12.9

11.7

10.9

.539

.558

0.3%

1.9%

2.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

Is Matt Wieters trying to screw over the analytical community? We say he's great, he plays okay. We say, eh, we probably overshot, he becomes great (.279/.364/.574). Sheesh, Matt. Pick a greatness amount and stick to it!
22

12

10

11.5

12.3

12.8

.552

.532

45.1%

9.3%

54.3%

-0.0%

-5.1%

Things that should not be: Barry Zito's 1.67 ERA.
23

11

11

11.4

13.5

13.3

.558

.578

16.7%

8.4%

25.2%

-0.2%

-2.3%

The White Sox (+3) are the only team in the Central with a positive run differential. By contrast, all five teams in the AL East have positive differentials.
24

14

9

13.6

12.4

11.8

.563

.544

29.5%

22.4%

51.9%

-1.0%

4.0%

Giving up nine runs to the Pirates is like the local varsity high school team giving up 10 to your little sister's t-ballers and then, while leaving the field, an asteroid falls on their heads.
25

15

8

12.3

12.6

12.9

.574

.594

17.8%

40.0%

57.8%

0.7%

3.4%

By putting Ben Zobrist in the leadoff position last night, Joe Maddon has now used 20 different batting orders in 23 games.
26

13

9

12.7

13.0

12.7

.584

.603

64.1%

24.8%

88.8%

0.3%

-0.3%

If you remove the 10 extra-base hits and count only his 27 singles, Derek Jeter would still lead the Yankees in hits.
27

14

8

13.1

13.7

13.1

.613

.593

3.2%

5.4%

8.6%

-0.2%

-10.3%

Jordan Zimmermann's 0.67 BB/9 is the lowest in all of baseball for a starting pitcher. He has fewer walks (in 27 innings) than any other pitcher on his team except reliever Sean Burnett, who has two walks in 6 2/3 innings.
28

16

7

12.9

14.2

14.5

.626

.607

9.9%

4.9%

14.8%

-0.2%

1.2%

The Dodgers are reportedly petitioning MLB to allow Matt Kemp to pinch-hit for everyone on their roster all the time. Said manager Don Mattingly, "Give me just 263 reasons why not."
29

14

8

16.7

16.9

16.5

.728

.712

61.7%

23.1%

84.8%

-0.2%

1.0%

Not one Cardinals starter has a walk rate greater than Adam Wainwright's 2.29.
30

17

6

17.3

17.8

17.9

.761

.775

75.4%

17.4%

92.8%

0.0%

0.3%

Nine strikeouts in seven innings? If Yu saw Yu Darvish pitch last night Yu wouldn't have believed it ... OK, nope, never doing that again.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
surfdent48

How about Rick Porcello's Strikeout/Earned Run ratio. His is 12/16. Now THAT'S ineffective.

May 01, 2012 06:47 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Good point. At least he's not walking many people (4 in 22 1/3 innings). But yeah, he's been kinda yucky.

May 01, 2012 13:50 PM
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dglade22

Is there a glossary for the column headings?

May 01, 2012 08:07 AM
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BP staff member BP Customer Service

Yes, you'll find our glossary at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/

May 01, 2012 09:11 AM
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