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Prospectus Hit List for April 27



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 26 Hit List for April 28
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which the Cardinals are flying away with the Central.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

14

5

12.0

12.7

12.0

.666

.648

8.1%

10.9%

19.0%

-0.4%

-0.4%

The Nationals' team ERA leads the majors at 2.20, 0.38 better than second-place Pittsburgh and more than four runs better than last-place Boston.
2

10

9

9.9

9.7

8.8

.507

.527

0.6%

3.5%

4.1%

-0.5%

-1.4%

Are the first-place Orioles even a little bit for real? After getting swept by them, the Blue Jays probably think so.
3

15

4

15.0

15.4

15.1

.796

.809

75.5%

17.3%

92.8%

-0.1%

0.2%

The Rangers' 31 homers lead everyone, the American League, the National League, and you, probably by 31.
4

12

7

10.0

10.3

10.6

.565

.584

18.4%

39.0%

57.4%

1.0%

4.2%

Note to Matt Moore Worrywarts: 5 2/3 innings with six strikeouts, two walks, and two earned runs mean you can calm the heck down now.
5

12

7

13.8

14.1

13.7

.705

.688

58.3%

25.0%

83.3%

-0.1%

-1.0%

While the Cardinals lead the NL with a plus-38 run differential, each other team in the Central division has been out-scored. The race for the NL Central could be over before it starts.
6

10

9

9.7

10.5

10.6

.537

.517

49.4%

8.8%

58.2%

-0.9%

-1.6%

Pablo Sandoval has a 19-game hitting streak. This makes sense because when you think of Joe DiMaggio, Pablo Sandoval pops right into your head.
7

10

10

10.0

9.1

8.7

.473

.493

0.0%

0.5%

0.6%

-0.2%

-0.3%

Lost in the news of Michael Pineda's injury has been his counterpart, Jesus Montero, who is hitting a meek .265/.278/.368.
8

6

14

8.0

8.0

8.8

.384

.366

13.9%

6.2%

20.0%

2.2%

4.4%

The Padres are talking about moving the fences in next season, but nobody is talking about my idea of moving the plate out. That would benefit both the hitters and the pitchers. Think about it. Now stop thinking about it.
9

8

10

7.4

7.5

8.5

.436

.417

0.4%

1.5%

1.9%

-0.1%

0.4%

At least part of the reason the Pirates have scored only 41 runs (50 fewer than St. Louis) is their league-worst 5 percent walk rate.
10

9

10

9.6

8.8

9.7

.488

.468

36.0%

22.0%

58.0%

0.3%

0.4%

Who is leading the Phillies in OBP and slugging? Why, Laynce Nix, of course.
11

10

10

9.3

8.1

8.0

.442

.462

0.2%

1.0%

1.2%

-0.1%

-0.4%

In 2008, the A's dropped Dan Johnson. The Rays grabbed him and Johnson hit a series of pivotal ninth-inning homers. A week ago the A's dropped Brandon Allen and Tampa grabbed him, and Thursday he hit a walk-off. This is a dangerous trend.
12

11

8

8.0

8.9

10.9

.511

.491

3.0%

4.7%

7.7%

0.1%

0.4%

David Wright has never had an OPS above .900 in Citi Field, but with the fences moved in this year he is hitting .306/.447/.500 at home.
13

10

8

10.3

10.1

9.9

.560

.580

62.8%

25.1%

87.8%

-0.1%

-0.5%

When Derek Jeter retires at 55 and publishes his autobiography, it will detail all the animatronic surgeries he underwent to hit .420/.442/.642 as a 37-year-old starting shortstop, while others of us the same age can't open a cabinet without injuring ourselves.
14

5

14

5.8

6.6

7.1

.323

.341

1.5%

1.1%

2.6%

0.2%

0.7%

The U.S. Department of Small Sample Sizes would like to remind you that even though Clete Thomas is striking out in 57 percent of his plate appearances, it's not our fault.
15

9

10

8.5

7.7

7.1

.425

.406

22.6%

32.3%

54.9%

-0.9%

-1.5%

That the Brewers are the worst in baseball in Defensive Efficiency should surprise nobody but the Chorizo, who doesn't pay attention to advanced statistics.
16

7

11

8.7

7.9

7.5

.434

.414

25.8%

20.8%

46.5%

-1.0%

-2.1%

Heath Bell's implosion reminds me there are two big problems with giving a long deal to an established closer. Actually three problems. No, four. Wait, I mean five. [twenty minutes later] OK, two hundred six reasons not to give a long deal to an established closer.
17

13

6

10.9

11.7

11.9

.625

.606

8.6%

5.0%

13.6%

-0.4%

-1.5%

Advanced statistics can be vital in helping us understand the game. But sometimes they aren't necessary. For example, Matt Kemp is hitting .449 with 10 homers. See? Point made.
18

5

14

7.7

8.9

8.9

.402

.421

0.3%

0.3%

0.6%

0.1%

0.1%

Royals starter Luis Mendoza has a 6.00 ERA, which henceforth shall be known as the Mendoza Line! Wait, what? That name is taken?
19

7

12

10.3

10.2

10.7

.503

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

The Astros are spending $17.5 million on Brandon Lyon and Brett Myers, who have combined for 12 innings with a 2.70 ERA out of the bullpen. Someone please tell me why.
20

10

9

8.8

7.1

6.8

.428

.448

54.8%

9.6%

64.4%

0.3%

-6.0%

It's true that Delmon Young is hitting .242/.311/.333, but that's OK because he's terrible defensively.
21

9

9

8.1

7.3

7.3

.440

.420

6.5%

3.3%

9.9%

-0.4%

-0.6%

Jamie Moyer's strikeout rate is 100 percent. As a hitter.
22

9

8

8.0

8.2

6.5

.467

.487

26.3%

10.2%

36.5%

0.5%

-0.3%

By starting the season .304/.373/.522, Asdrubal Cabrera has answered his doubter, a guy named Larry from Euclid. In your face, Larry!
23

9

10

8.6

8.6

9.8

.473

.454

18.6%

28.1%

46.6%

0.9%

5.2%

Homer Bailey has an ERA better than league-average for the first time in his career, but he also is now striking out fewer than six per nine innings.
24

6

13

6.9

6.5

7.5

.354

.336

0.2%

0.8%

1.0%

0.1%

-0.9%

When the Cubs hold their World Series victory parade down State Street, they'll have to do it wearing special space suits that accommodate their mutated dinosaur tails. But a World Series parade is a World Series parade, am I right?
25

10

9

10.4

11.8

11.7

.577

.597

17.1%

8.7%

25.8%

-1.0%

4.0%

Phil Humber's run at a second perfect game lasted six pitches.
26

8

10

8.4

8.5

8.5

.463

.483

17.8%

36.3%

54.1%

0.6%

0.6%

The Red Sox have now won four in a row. Can you unjump off the Tobin Bridge?
27

12

7

10.0

9.4

8.8

.528

.548

0.4%

2.5%

2.9%

0.6%

0.5%

If history is any judge, Adam Jones will have a season good enough to get the Orioles to give him lots of money, whereupon he will age so fast you'll think you're watching the end of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade..
28

12

7

11.8

10.4

10.0

.582

.562

27.2%

21.2%

48.4%

0.4%

1.9%

Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel have struck out 29 hitters in 15 2/3 innings, which is more than five out of six dentists recommend.
29

9

10

8.5

8.4

9.5

.466

.446

21.6%

9.5%

31.1%

0.2%

-3.2%

Despite being injured and not playing for the past 10 days, Chris Young still leads the Diamondbacks in just about every offensive category.
30

6

13

8.3

7.8

7.0

.383

.402

24.3%

44.9%

69.2%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Lost in all the hysteria about Albert Pujols not hitting is Vernon Wells, who is also not hitting.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
dodgerken222

Wittiest thing I've read in quite a while. Outstanding

Apr 29, 2012 07:52 AM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

You're too kind.

Apr 29, 2012 23:04 PM
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