Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for April 24



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 23 Hit List for April 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which the White Sox are higher than the Tigers.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

10

6

10.1

10.3

10.3

.635

.654

17.6%

9.9%

27.5%

2.9%

8.8%

With yesterday's two walks and a homer, Adam Dunn's season line stands at .250/.366/.550. Adam Dunn is a career .243/.374/.503 hitter. Adam Dunn may not be finished.
2

7

9

6.1

6.2

7.0

.411

.392

16.0%

28.2%

44.2%

1.8%

3.3%

Joey Votto's slugging percentage may be below his on-base percentage, but his on-base percentage is .444 so he's doing all right.
3

7

8

8.0

7.4

7.1

.493

.473

28.5%

22.7%

51.1%

1.8%

6.9%

So how much has new $100 million man Jose Reyes helped the Marlins? Well, he's done an excellent job of standing at shortstop. Beyond that... So there's that.
4

5

10

5.5

6.2

6.3

.383

.402

15.5%

36.9%

52.4%

1.0%

-4.4%

Notes to minimize hysteria: the Red Sox have the third-best OPS of any team in baseball.
5

9

7

7.8

7.8

7.5

.502

.522

16.0%

38.5%

54.4%

0.7%

2.6%

The Rays were supposed to have amazing pitching but a mediocre offense. So far this season they've had mediocre pitching but a very good offense. Baseball is weird.
6

5

12

7.2

6.8

7.4

.389

.370

12.8%

6.1%

18.9%

0.5%

3.4%

They may have ceded the title of worst record in baseball to the Royals, but at eight games out they still face the biggest deficit of any team. Viva la Revolution!
7

10

6

9.1

9.1

8.6

.575

.594

0.8%

4.4%

5.1%

0.3%

-0.5%

With the words, "Home run! Jose Bautista!" all of eastern Canada exhales.
8

6

9

5.3

3.7

5.3

.338

.320

0.4%

1.2%

1.6%

0.3%

0.4%

In 1908, the Cardinals scored 372 runs over a 154-game season, or 2.4 runs per game. The Pirates are averaging two runs per game. If they continue at this pace, even with the extra eight games, the Pirates will come up 48 runs short of the '08 Cardinals.
9

10

6

9.8

9.6

9.3

.604

.623

67.5%

21.6%

89.1%

0.2%

0.7%

Is Derek Jeter a .400 hitter? Ha ha, no way, silly. He's hitting .411! [chokes on sandwich]
10

8

9

7.4

6.4

6.2

.412

.393

24.3%

31.4%

55.7%

0.1%

-0.6%

When Ryan Braun and Zack Greinke are on, well, let me put it this way: mess with bull, get horns.
11

13

4

13.3

13.7

13.4

.786

.799

74.1%

18.4%

92.5%

0.1%

1.6%

Derek Holland had struck out 20 in 20 innings before netting just one in six innings against the Yankees. Add four walks to that and the Rangers' chances of winning fall precipitously. But, surprise, Texas won! No, just kidding. They lost.
12

10

7

10.4

9.2

8.6

.564

.544

27.7%

20.2%

47.9%

0.1%

8.9%

The deeper you delve into the Braves' numbers, the worse they look. Atlanta is the highest-scoring team in the National League right now but don't bet on it finishing that way. In fact, don't bet at all. Betting is bad.
13

12

4

9.7

10.9

10.0

.666

.648

8.2%

10.7%

18.9%

0.0%

-3.0%

The Washington Post is reporting that Brad Lidge is a spy sent from the Phillies to infiltrate and ultimately destroy the Nationals. A movie version is in the works.
14

9

7

7.7

7.0

6.7

.474

.494

0.2%

2.1%

2.4%

0.0%

-0.2%

Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, and Adam Jones have 15 homers between them. None of them is slugging under .620. But you knew that because all three are sitting on your fantasy team's bench.
15

6

11

9.5

9.6

10.0

.515

.495

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brett Myers has thrown three innings, saved two games, and struck out four hitters. If this is a ploy to create a trade market where one previously didn't exist, point Houston.
16

11

6

12.3

13.1

12.8

.724

.708

59.1%

24.6%

83.8%

-0.1%

-2.2%

Every pitcher on the Cardinals staff, save one, has an ERA below 4.50. This is called being good and lucky.
17

3

13

5.5

6.7

6.6

.341

.359

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

-0.1%

-0.0%

"This [losing streak] goes to 11."
18

9

8

8.3

8.3

9.1

.511

.491

22.3%

8.8%

31.1%

-0.1%

-11.3%

You kinda have to win when the other team is pitching Kyle Kendrick and it's not 2007.
19

7

10

7.1

6.3

5.9

.387

.407

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Not one of Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, or Justin Smoak is slugging better than .370.
20

9

7

9.1

9.9

10.0

.593

.574

50.0%

9.4%

59.4%

-0.1%

3.2%

In perhaps the most amazing story since ever, Tim Lincecum revived his previously finished career with five innings of one-run ball. If you want to nitpick, sure, he walked five guys, but you can't have everything, OK? You just can't!
21

5

12

5.7

6.1

6.7

.346

.364

1.4%

0.8%

2.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

When you pitch Jason Marquis and Matt Capps in the same game you can't really expect to win.
22

8

7

7.0

7.2

7.5

.496

.476

6.5%

4.2%

10.7%

-0.3%

2.5%

The Rockies have eight guys slugging over .500, but don't worry, only six of them are regulars.
23

8

10

7.9

7.4

7.3

.426

.446

0.2%

1.2%

1.4%

-0.5%

0.0%

It's tempting to say disparaging things about the A's when they lose a game 4-0, but here's the not-dirty-at-all secret: they're not really that dirty. Or bad.
24

13

4

10.2

10.8

11.0

.662

.644

8.4%

5.1%

13.6%

-0.5%

-2.4%

The last offense that was this reliant on the success of a single hitter was the Giants during Barry Bonds' run.
25

8

8

5.9

6.8

8.5

.457

.437

2.5%

4.5%

7.0%

-0.6%

-2.3%

The best reliever used to be called a fireman. He would come on anytime to put out the fire. The Mets could use one now because they have Miguel Batista, whose role could best be described as arsonist.
26

10

6

8.5

6.6

6.4

.493

.513

55.0%

10.4%

65.4%

-0.7%

-9.7%

Don't look now but the Tigers have been overtaken by the White Sox in run differential and Hit List Factor.
27

8

6

7.2

7.4

6.2

.513

.533

25.7%

11.4%

37.1%

-0.8%

1.7%

Answer: Travis Hafner. Question: Who made himself useful again?
28

5

12

6.3

5.6

6.4

.343

.325

0.1%

0.6%

0.8%

-1.1%

-1.5%

The Cubs can hit Alfonso Soriano anywhere in the lineup because when you're hitting .200/.220/.200 the damage to the team has already been maxed out.
29

7

10

7.5

6.7

7.8

.427

.407

33.1%

22.2%

55.3%

-1.9%

-5.4%

The Phillies lost 9-5 to the Diamondbacks, which was sort of a sure thing because the Phillies have not scored nine runs in a game all year. They have now scored five or more four times, though. Progress! Or not!
30

6

10

7.6

7.4

6.4

.427

.447

25.6%

43.7%

69.4%

-3.0%

-0.3%

One thing we can be pretty certain of when it comes to the Angels: they're better than the Mariners. Hang your hat right there, Angles fans.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


0 comments have been left for this article.
Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.
<< Previous Article
Premium Article The Call-Up: Jarrod Pa... (04/24)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (04/23)
Next Column >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (04/25)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Collateral Damage Dail... (04/24)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 19
Barbecue State of Mind
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Give the Red Sox Your ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Astros, Marlins, Swap ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Pr...
Premium Article The Call-Up: Mike Foltynewicz
Trade Deadline

MORE FROM APRIL 24, 2012 08:04 AM
Premium Article Western Front: Five Giant Themes
Premium Article Prospectus Game of the Week: The Accounts an...
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: A Week in W...
Baseball ProGUESTus: The Manager Narrative
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Tuesday, April 24
Premium Article The Call-Up: Jarrod Parker
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, April 24

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2012-04-27 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 27
2012-04-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, April 26
2012-04-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, April 25...
2012-04-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, April 24
2012-04-23 - Out of Left Field: Designing a Nervous Break...
2012-04-23 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 23
2012-04-20 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 20
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2012-04-27 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 27
2012-04-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, April 26
2012-04-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, April 25...
2012-04-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, April 24
2012-04-23 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 23
2012-04-20 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 20
2012-04-19 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, April 19
More...