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Prospectus Hit List for April 23



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 20 Hit List for April 24
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which the Houston Astros have a positive run differential.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

13

3

13.1

13.2

12.9

.816

.828

71.2%

21.2%

92.4%

0.2%

2.0%

Sure, the winning squeeze bunt actually went off Alberto Gonzalez' knee, but with the bases loaded and no outs my abacus says the Rangers were still heavy favorites by lots of colored beads.
2

11

5

11.9

12.5

12.3

.744

.729

61.0%

22.8%

83.8%

1.1%

-1.6%

In his 12-year career, Kyle Lohse has never posted an ERA below last year's 3.39. His career mark is 4.60. After three starts this year: 0.99.
3

12

4

9.7

10.9

10.0

.666

.648

8.3%

10.5%

18.9%

0.7%

-3.0%

A clash between Gio Gonzalez and Josh Johnson Sunday was cancelled when Nature, so excited over the duel, spilled her water all over the field.
4

12

4

9.1

10.1

10.2

.648

.629

9.4%

4.6%

14.1%

-1.4%

-1.5%

The major-league leader in intentional walks is A.J. Ellis with four. Ellis may be hitting .222, but he hits eighth ahead of Dodger pitchers who are collectively hitting .074. Also, he's strikingly handsome.
5

9

6

9.1

8.8

8.8

.594

.613

15.9%

8.7%

24.6%

0.7%

3.4%

Philip Humber, who threw the 21st perfect game in major-league baseball history, was cut by the Twins, the Royals, and then the A's, with whom he never played game.
6

9

6

9.0

8.9

8.6

.592

.611

65.8%

23.1%

88.9%

-0.6%

-0.2%

Undersold in the hysteria surrounding the Red Sox' blown nine-run lead is that the Yankees were good enough to help them do it.
7

10

6

10.4

9.0

8.4

.590

.570

25.8%

21.9%

47.8%

-0.8%

7.6%

The Nationals are the second-highest scoring team in the NL East. The Braves are first, 33 runs ahead.
8

9

6

8.3

8.5

8.1

.566

.586

0.6%

4.2%

4.8%

-0.2%

-1.3%

J.P. Arencibia had another hit, raising his batting average to .196 and bringing him inches closer to what he weeks ago dreamed would be renamed the Arencibia Line.
9

7

7

7.0

7.9

8.0

.535

.515

49.9%

9.6%

59.5%

0.4%

3.6%

One thing I'm too quick to do: dismiss the Giants' decisions. The acquisition of Melky Cabrera is paying off in spades. Cabrera is hitting .316/.400/.456. One other thing I'm often too quick to do: make judgments on players after three weeks of the season.
10

6

10

9.1

9.2

9.6

.529

.509

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yesterday, a tabby cat married a French Poodle, the Republicans and Democrats high-fived each other in the halls of Congress just because, and the Astros beat the Dodgers 12-0.
11

8

6

6.0

6.8

8.1

.517

.497

2.8%

4.8%

7.6%

0.1%

-0.6%

Like Bret Saberhagen, David Wright has apparently joined the Be Really Good Every Other Year program. Saberhagen also has a home weight-loss program but it involves the removal of unnecessary organs.
12

8

6

7.2

7.4

6.2

.513

.533

26.5%

11.4%

37.8%

-1.3%

3.2%

Last year, Justin Masterson walked 65 in 216 innings. This year he has walked 12 in 21 2/3 innings. That's about double.
13

9

7

7.8

7.8

7.5

.501

.521

17.8%

35.9%

53.7%

0.9%

4.3%

Yesterday's win over the Twins marked the first time the Rays bullpen held an opponent scoreless since a gallon of gas cost a nickel. Sure feels that way.
14

8

7

7.0

7.2

7.5

.496

.476

6.8%

4.2%

11.0%

-0.2%

1.3%

What is it about small and mediocre middle infielders that makes managers think, "I don't want to hear any of your 'facts' or 'information.' That's my lead-off guy." #scutaro
15

7

8

8.0

7.4

7.2

.493

.473

27.6%

21.8%

49.4%

1.8%

4.8%

After Hanley Ramirez and Omar Infante, the Marlins offense drops off badly. On paper, this doesn't look like a recipe for success.
16

10

6

8.5

6.6

6.4

.493

.513

56.0%

10.1%

66.1%

-0.1%

-8.0%

To anyone who was worried that there might be a drop in Justin Verlander's performance: through four starts, his peripherals are almost identical to those of last year's Cy Young-winning season.
17

9

7

7.7

7.0

6.7

.474

.494

0.3%

2.1%

2.4%

0.1%

0.5%

Buck Showalter was ejected in the sixth inning of yesterday's game and the Orioles went on to win. Did they win because Showalter sparked them or because he wasn’t there to prevent it?
18

8

8

7.3

7.2

7.8

.473

.453

21.6%

9.6%

31.2%

0.7%

-11.1%

Pitcher Ian Kennedy on Sunday walked with two outs and the bases loaded, preceding Gerardo Parra's grand slam. I'm not a lawyer but I'm 100 percent sure there is jail time due to Braves pitcher Randall Delgado.
19

8

9

8.0

8.1

7.9

.470

.490

0.3%

1.6%

1.8%

0.3%

0.4%

Yoenis Cespedes is striking out in 33 percent of his plate appearances, and yet he's not close to the biggest problem with the A's lineup.
20

7

9

7.6

6.9

7.8

.458

.438

35.5%

21.7%

57.2%

-1.7%

-4.2%

With Cliff Lee on the disabled list, the Phillies will only have two of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Pour out some of that 40 oz., Phils fans.
21

6

10

7.6

7.4

6.4

.427

.447

28.5%

43.9%

72.3%

0.2%

3.7%

This homerless streak -- 16 games, plus the final four games of the 2011 World Series -- is not the longest of Albert Pujols' career. This one just feels different because it's the start of the season and he's on a new team.
22

7

9

6.1

6.2

7.0

.412

.392

15.6%

26.8%

42.4%

0.1%

1.6%

Thirty-seven-year-old Scott Rolen is hitting .170/.228/.226. Yes, his pathetic slugging percentage is lower than his pathetic on-base percentage.
23

7

9

6.8

5.8

5.8

.397

.378

22.9%

32.7%

55.6%

-1.0%

0.0%

Aramis Ramirez' .151/.220/.245 start can be mitigated, if not overcome, by his defensive prow... nope, never mind.
24

5

12

7.2

6.8

7.4

.389

.370

12.2%

6.2%

18.5%

0.6%

3.4%

I'm not sure which is stranger, that Mark Kotsay is still on a major-league roster or that he's starting and hitting second for the Padres.
25

7

10

7.1

6.3

6.0

.388

.407

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

0.1%

0.1%

How do you put a positive spin on having a perfect game thrown against you? You lost, but at least you did it in historic fashion.
26

4

10

4.9

5.4

5.7

.357

.375

15.4%

36.0%

51.4%

-0.4%

-8.9%

What do a bus-station bathroom attendant and the janitor at a porno theater have in common? They have better bullpens than Bobby Valentine.
27

5

11

5.3

5.9

6.6

.356

.374

1.4%

1.0%

2.4%

-0.1%

0.6%

Francisco Liriano is 0-3 with an 11.02 ERA, prompting rumors of an impending trade to the Red Sox.
28

3

12

5.3

6.3

6.4

.350

.368

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

The last time the Royals won a game in Kansas City was Sept. 20, 2011 against Detroit, 11 home games ago.
29

6

9

5.3

3.7

5.3

.338

.320

0.2%

1.2%

1.3%

-0.4%

-0.0%

Andrew McCutchen is hitting .350 with an .807 OPS. Including McCutchen, the Pirates as a team are hitting .202 with a .530 OPS.
30

4

12

5.7

5.1

5.8

.322

.305

0.4%

1.5%

1.9%

0.0%

-0.2%

The Cubs turned the hitter with the lowest qualified batting average in baseball into a young reliever and about $500,000 worth of savings. Welcome to the world of intelligent management, Cubs fans.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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