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Prospectus Hit List for April 20



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 19 Hit List for April 23
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

...and the Rangers lived Napoli ever after.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

8

5

8.2

6.6

6.0

.555

.535

25.9%

20.5%

46.4%

4.1%

13.4%

Little-known fact: current Atlanta Brave Eric Hinske has been a member of every World Series-winning team since 1910, when his Chicago Cubs lost to Connie Mack's Philadelphia A's.
2

6

5

5.6

5.8

4.8

.504

.524

24.8%

12.1%

36.8%

2.1%

6.6%

Felix Hernandez was nearly perfect last night. Fortunately for the Indians, Mariners closer Brandon League was somewhat less so.
3

4

8

4.7

4.9

5.1

.390

.409

17.6%

35.8%

53.4%

1.5%

5.0%

The Red Sox today will celebrate 100 years of Fenway Park, which, coincidentally, is the length of time since they've had a quality start.
4

6

7

5.2

4.7

5.1

.404

.385

24.4%

32.0%

56.4%

-1.5%

3.0%

Platoon catcher George Kottaras is hitting .400/.550/1.067 right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, he's hitting .000/.000/.001. No, just kidding. It's .000.
5

6

6

5.6

5.5

5.7

.475

.455

6.4%

4.1%

10.5%

1.1%

2.9%

Dexter Fowler has struck out 10 times in 37 plate appearances. In 40 plate appearances, Marco Scutaro has struck out zero times.
6

11

2

10.9

10.6

10.2

.819

.831

73.7%

19.0%

92.6%

0.3%

2.7%

The good: Yu Darvish threw 6 1/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball. The bad: he walked four or more for the third start in a row. The None Of That Matters Because Of This: The Rangers scored 10 runs and won for Darvish's third consecutive start.
7

6

6

6.3

6.1

5.9

.507

.527

13.3%

8.5%

21.8%

-0.1%

2.2%

Paul Konerko, Alex Rios, and Alexei Ramirez were the only starters to end the night hitting better than .232. At least the Sox will save on fireworks this year.
8

4

9

5.6

5.2

4.3

.366

.384

26.1%

44.4%

70.5%

1.7%

2.0%

Yesterday Albert Pujols just missed a home run. That’s one of the perils of joining a new team as a free agent. In St. Louis, they probably would have just given it to him, but in Anaheim they’re going to follow all the rules to the letter.
9

6

6

6.0

7.2

7.3

.551

.531

49.5%

10.3%

59.8%

0.3%

1.9%

Matt Cain has walked 1.13 batters per nine innings. The only Giants starter with a lower number is Barry Zito, who has walked one hitter in 16 innings.
10

5

8

4.5

4.3

5.4

.370

.351

14.8%

26.7%

41.4%

3.3%

1.3%

Powered by Nickleback, Bush, and Third Eye Blind, Bronson Arroyo threw eight innings of three-run ball. It would have been nine but he couldn't find his Collective Soul CD.
11

7

6

7.3

6.6

6.2

.521

.501

26.6%

22.1%

48.6%

-0.9%

1.3%

Even the U.S. Department of Small Sample Sizes is ready to declare Hanley Ramirez (.300/.386/.580) officially back.
12

7

6

7.2

7.3

7.1

.551

.571

65.2%

23.2%

88.4%

-1.0%

0.6%

Curtis Granderson hit three homers in four innings. After that, he hit only two singles. Headline in the New York tabloids: SLUMP!
13

10

3

8.3

8.9

9.3

.701

.684

9.4%

5.6%

15.0%

0.6%

0.4%

At this point, throwing a pitch to Matt Kemp amounts to a suicide mission.
14

7

7

6.6

6.6

6.4

.476

.496

0.2%

1.4%

1.6%

-0.1%

0.2%

The A's had three hits and scored four runs. The Angels had 10 hits and scored two runs.
15

6

6

6.1

6.5

6.6

.526

.546

0.9%

4.6%

5.5%

-0.3%

0.1%

J.P. Arencibia had two hits to silence his critics. Though his critics are likely to make more noise when they notice those two hits brought his batting average up to .111.
16

7

7

6.9

6.1

6.0

.465

.485

0.1%

0.8%

0.9%

-0.2%

0.1%

The idea of trading Felix Hernandez has always seemed strange, the covetous wish of other team's fans rather than a sensible strategy for Seattle. Other than dealing him to the Red Sox, of course. Dealing him to Boston is entirely sensible and rational. /is covetous
17

5

8

6.9

7.4

7.7

.520

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Last night, the Astros hit three triples in the first inning against Washington. If they can do that every game they might be better than many of us thought.
18

4

9

4.4

4.9

5.3

.358

.377

1.1%

0.8%

1.9%

-0.3%

-0.0%

Twins 6, Curtis Granderson 4, Yankees 3.
19

3

9

4.5

5.3

5.7

.386

.405

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

0.1%

-0.1%

Alex Gordon is hitting .149/.245/.234 and striking out in 30 percent of his plate appearances.
20

5

7

4.6

3.2

4.6

.363

.344

0.3%

1.2%

1.5%

-0.1%

-0.2%

The PIrates have had 12 runners on third with less than two out. They've scored three of those runners.
21

3

10

4.3

3.9

4.6

.304

.287

0.3%

1.5%

1.9%

0.0%

-0.3%

Jeff Samardzija is working hard on proving that his excellent first start this year was just luck. Said Samardzija, "Don't judge me on one performance, OK? I know, I was good, but trust me, if you give me another chance I know I can do worse."
22

3

11

5.1

4.8

4.9

.318

.301

10.2%

5.4%

15.6%

1.0%

-0.5%

It can be hard to find something to say about a 3-11 team without sounding rude. Fortunately, I can point out that Chase Headley is hitting .292/.435/.646, so it's not all empty juice boxes and roadside puppy carcasses in San Diego.
23

8

5

6.7

6.3

5.7

.512

.532

0.4%

2.0%

2.4%

-0.0%

-0.7%

It is April 20 and the Orioles are alone in first place. Somewhere, a group of religious extremists have heard the news and are preparing to kill themselves.
24

7

5

5.0

5.7

6.8

.510

.490

2.5%

4.9%

7.3%

0.1%

-0.8%

Jonathan Niese (2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) faces Barry Zito (1.12, 0.69) tonight. You just have to love second-week pitching stats.
25

10

4

8.3

9.7

8.6

.654

.636

8.1%

11.2%

19.4%

-0.6%

-2.4%

Future ex-best-prospect Bryce Harper is struggling in Triple-A, hitting .232 with no homers in 14 games, so he clearly needs another week of seasoning.
26

9

4

9.6

10.1

10.0

.744

.729

60.2%

24.0%

84.2%

-1.8%

-2.7%

Adam Wainwright has given up more runs (15) than every other Cardinals starter combined (11).
27

6

7

6.9

6.0

6.6

.492

.472

37.0%

20.6%

57.6%

-0.8%

-6.1%

The Phillies have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their 13 games, while allowing three runs or fewer in eight games. The Phillies are Joe West's favorite team.
28

9

4

7.7

6.5

6.2

.564

.584

60.6%

9.8%

70.4%

-2.6%

-7.9%

We're 13 games into the Miguel Cabrera: Third Baseman experiment, and so far Earth is still rotating on its axis. Well, with maybe a slight tilt towards third base.
29

7

6

5.7

5.9

5.9

.472

.492

16.0%

37.2%

53.2%

-1.1%

-10.6%

The Rays used four pitchers in the bottom of the sixth inning, two of whom didn't record an out.
30

7

6

6.6

6.5

6.8

.518

.498

24.5%

9.8%

34.3%

-4.8%

-11.3%

Josh Collmenter (5 1/3, four runs) now has an ERA higher than 10 after three starts. Trevor Bauer has a 0.57 ERA in Double-A. Obvious solution: heal Collmenter with Bauer's touch.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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