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Prospectus Hit List for April 19



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 18 Hit List for April 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Lohse carries the Cardinals to glory while Pujols sinks the Angels. Baseball!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

9

3

8.0

7.2

6.9

.648

.666

63.7%

9.4%

73.1%

-2.0%

-1.0%

The Tigers have five hitters with an OPS+ of 130 or above and three starters with an ERA+ at 200 or higher. Call it top-heavy, call it depth, call it both, I call it winning the Central.
2

4

8

5.7

6.5

6.7

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

The Astros started off 3-1, but since then they've gone 1-7. Phew. We analysts get one right every now and again.
3

3

9

4.5

5.3

5.7

.386

.405

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

-0.1%

0.1%

The Royals can trust the process all they like, but until they develop or acquire multiple above-average starting pitchers, it's hard to see much changing in Kansas City.
4

7

6

6.5

6.0

5.9

.488

.508

0.1%

0.9%

1.0%

0.3%

0.8%

If your recipe for success involves both Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki hitting homers you will fail.
5

3

9

4.0

3.5

4.1

.305

.288

0.3%

1.6%

1.8%

-0.4%

0.9%

You might think Mark Buehrle's pound-the-zone stuff wouldn't play well against a free-swinging club like the Cubs. You'd be right except for one thing: you forgot about talent and that the Cubs don't really have any.
6

5

7

4.6

3.2

4.6

.363

.344

0.2%

1.3%

1.5%

0.1%

1.0%

After yesterday's game, the Pirates are scoring... negative two runs a game? [checks numbers] [carries the one] Yup.
7

6

7

5.8

6.5

6.2

.471

.491

0.2%

1.5%

1.8%

0.3%

1.3%

After last year's success, Bartolo Colon must have been surprised at how little interest he garnered on the free-agent market. Teams just don't trust the injecting-panda-blood-into-the-eye method of career rejuvenation yet.
8

7

5

6.0

5.7

5.1

.495

.515

0.2%

2.2%

2.4%

-0.4%

1.3%

Orioles fans have the unique ability to focus on wins and ignore losses like last night's 8-1 stinker against Chicago. If they didn't, Baltimore would be a crime-ridden cesspool.
9

4

8

4.0

4.8

5.1

.372

.391

1.2%

1.0%

2.2%

0.2%

1.6%

Between June 1, 2011 and a week ago, Justin Morneau hit no home runs. Since last week, he's hit four.
10

3

10

4.9

4.5

4.4

.323

.306

8.8%

5.8%

14.6%

-1.1%

1.6%

The number of acceptable situations with which to insert Mark Kotsay is now down to: the pitcher is up and everyone else in the stadium has severe food poisoning and the pizza delivery guy arrives and you fake like you can't find your wallet.
11

7

5

7.0

7.0

7.2

.588

.568

27.6%

11.5%

39.0%

-2.3%

1.8%

Games against the Pirates are Major League Baseball's way of reminding us to do lawn work.
12

9

3

7.7

7.9

8.4

.687

.670

9.1%

5.3%

14.4%

-0.7%

2.1%

Square these two things. Dee Gordon and his .208/.269/.250 line have the most plate appearances of anyone on the Dodgers. The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West.
13

7

5

5.0

5.7

6.7

.510

.490

2.8%

4.4%

7.2%

-1.9%

2.2%

At this point R.A. Dickey is a better story than he is a pitcher.
14

6

5

6.1

6.1

6.1

.553

.572

1.1%

4.7%

5.8%

-0.1%

3.5%

Jeff Mathis homered off David Price. There are multiple ways to look at that and none of them is very positive for anyone involved (other than Jeff Mathis).
15

6

6

5.6

5.5

5.7

.475

.455

5.5%

3.9%

9.4%

1.0%

4.1%

By batting average, the Rockies had their worst two hitters in the one and two spots of the lineup last night.
16

10

3

8.7

9.7

8.9

.718

.701

8.5%

11.5%

20.0%

-0.8%

4.4%

Is it time to take the Nats seriously? Depends on the importance you place on strength of schedule. Washington has played all its games against the Cubs, Reds, Mets, and Houston. So, no, probably not yet.
17

6

5

6.1

5.7

5.6

.530

.550

13.1%

8.9%

21.9%

3.2%

7.1%

Adam Dunn Watch: Yesterday he went 1-2 with a double and three walks. Batting average now up to .195. Today's verdict: still sub-rancid.
18

9

3

9.3

9.9

9.9

.795

.781

61.8%

24.3%

86.1%

0.2%

7.4%

In three starts, Kyle Lohse has thrown 20 1/3 innings of 0.89 ERA ball. The rest of baseball must hate the Cardinals so hard.
19

5

7

6.1

5.5

6.0

.471

.451

37.5%

20.9%

58.5%

-1.6%

7.8%

Cliff Lee threw 10 innings of no-run ball. He struck out seven and didn't walk a soul. But the Phillies lost. Know why? Because Lee is a loser!
20

6

6

6.0

7.2

7.3

.551

.531

49.0%

10.5%

59.5%

2.8%

8.8%

In his past 18 innings pitched, including nine last night, Matt Cain has given up four runs. No wait. Sorry, that's four runners.
21

10

2

9.9

9.3

8.8

.792

.805

72.9%

19.4%

92.3%

0.4%

9.2%

The Rangers offense is like death. You know you're going to get it somehow at some time, you just can't be sure who's going to get you or when.
22

6

6

4.7

5.3

5.4

.447

.467

16.8%

37.5%

54.2%

1.7%

9.7%

Last nDavid Price, with 11 strikeouts and nine walks in 17 innings, has been ordinary. But with the pitching depth the Rays have, even if Price is mediocre, they should be fine.
23

4

8

3.6

3.3

4.2

.314

.297

12.6%

25.5%

38.1%

-0.8%

11.7%

I'm not sure the composition of the Cincinnati and St. Louis clubs matter. The Cardinals being five games ahead is just the natural order of things.
24

6

6

6.6

6.5

6.4

.531

.551

64.4%

25.0%

89.4%

0.5%

13.1%

The Twins beat the Yankees for the second time in three games. If you close your eyes it's pretty clear the Yankees are intimidated.
25

6

6

6.6

5.9

5.7

.504

.484

28.3%

21.3%

49.6%

2.6%

13.4%

I'm looking forward to that moment in late July when Hanley Ramirez hits a homer and that thing in right-center field blasts off for Mars.
26

5

5

5.0

5.1

4.1

.478

.498

21.8%

12.9%

34.7%

-1.4%

14.2%

Last night Derek Lowe walked six and didn't strike out a hitter. The last time Lowe didn't register a strikeout was June 14, 2009.
27

6

6

4.8

4.6

5.0

.425

.406

25.2%

32.8%

58.0%

0.9%

14.8%

That's two walk-off wins in a row for the Brewers, though if Tony Plush hadn't been so busy making hilarious videos for PETA they might have won one of them in regulation.
28

4

8

5.3

4.4

3.6

.359

.378

26.7%

42.2%

68.9%

-2.3%

16.2%

Albert Pujols is hitting .267/.313/.356. But worry not, Angels fans, because last April he hit .245/.305/453. Then last May he hit .288/.365/.387. He's was still Albert Pujols and he still is now.
29

7

5

7.0

5.3

4.7

.500

.480

22.9%

19.5%

42.4%

2.0%

17.9%

The only Braves who didn't get a hit in a 14-6 beat down of the Mets were the ones who didn't come to bat.
30

4

8

4.7

4.9

5.1

.390

.409

17.5%

34.4%

51.9%

-0.3%

22.8%

When the Red Sox pitching staff gives up only six runs, especially the day after allowing 18, it doesn't seem so bad. Unfortunately you don't get extra credit for mere lousiness in the face of historic putridity.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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