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Prospectus Hit List for April 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 17 Hit List for April 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

What if Albert Pujols simply never homers again?

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

3

8

3.4

4.0

4.3

.333

.351

1.2%

0.8%

2.0%

-0.4%

0.9%

While I'm sure it isn't true that the Twins are afraid of the Yankees, games like last night's 8-3 loss sure make it seem like it. Ron Gardenhire replacing Francisco Liriano with his blankie didn't help matters.
2

3

8

4.1

4.6

5.0

.382

.401

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

0.1%

0.1%

The Royals have been caught stealing six times this season for a 50-percent success rate. That isn't the worst rate in baseball (that would be the Mets) but it's the most times caught stealing in baseball. Stay aggressive, my friends.
3

3

9

4.8

4.6

4.5

.352

.334

10.1%

5.6%

15.7%

0.2%

5.2%

The Padres have drawn more walks (53) than any team in baseball. Indeed, it's about the only redeeming feature of their offense.
4

3

8

4.3

4.0

4.6

.362

.344

0.3%

1.9%

2.2%

-0.1%

1.3%

Ryan Dempster committed a throwing error, allowing two unearned runs to score. Instead of being charged for four runs (two as a pitcher, two as a fielder), he was charged with only two. Earned runs are silly.
5

4

7

4.2

3.3

4.1

.354

.336

13.0%

25.9%

38.9%

-2.0%

14.5%

Scott Rolen has five hits in 38 plate appearances. That's about what he would get if he went up there with a table leg, and an angry cat on his head.
6

4

7

4.4

4.7

4.9

.410

.429

16.4%

35.8%

52.2%

-4.7%

16.8%

The Red Sox outscored the Rangers 2-0 in the first inning of last night's game. The score over the next eight innings was 18-1. If a way existed to lose one game twice the Red Sox would have found it.
7

4

7

5.3

6.4

6.6

.505

.485

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After last night's 1-0 loss, Wandy Rodriguez's ERA dipped to 1.96, further strengthening the case that the best use of his abilities would be in the bullpen.
8

4

7

4.0

2.8

4.1

.337

.319

0.1%

1.3%

1.5%

0.3%

0.7%

It took 10 games, but the Pirates have finally scored 20 runs this season. Congratulations to them. Still, there might be some work left to do as Pittsburgh has scored two or fewer runs in seven of its 11 games.
9

4

7

5.4

4.7

4.0

.410

.429

27.9%

43.2%

71.2%

1.5%

22.0%

Things that might be related somehow: Now 11 games in, Albert Pujols is still homerless, and the Angels are in last place.
10

5

5

4.8

4.3

4.3

.459

.478

10.4%

8.4%

18.8%

0.1%

3.1%

The second and third hitters in the White Sox lineup ended the night hitting .118 and .179 respectively. Fortunately, Robin Ventura has the experience to handle situations like this.
11

5

6

4.7

4.4

4.6

.426

.407

4.8%

3.6%

8.4%

0.2%

2.6%

Jamie Moyer has a 2.55 ERA. Yes, this is still 2012. No, I don't know either.
12

5

4

4.7

5.0

4.1

.523

.542

22.5%

13.7%

36.1%

0.8%

18.0%

Casey Kotchman has lost .087/.092/.016 off of last year's 306/.378.422 line. This should surprise nobody outside of maybe Mrs. Kotchman.
13

5

6

5.2

4.3

4.1

.423

.403

26.5%

20.5%

47.0%

2.7%

3.2%

What's funnier, Logan Morrison or the fact that the Marlins left fielder and part-time first baseman is slugging .276?
14

5

6

4.2

3.9

4.2

.393

.374

23.3%

33.8%

57.1%

0.8%

10.1%

Rickie Weeks has led off every game but one for the Brewers this season, though as of now his .214 average and. 313 OBP are officially not good.
15

5

6

3.3

4.3

4.6

.391

.410

15.9%

36.7%

52.6%

0.8%

15.9%

Dear Joe Maddon, Putting Carlos Pena in the No. 2 hole isn't nearly as daring and interesting as hitting Jeff Keppinger cleanup. Come on, Joe, where's the crazy? Sincerely, Disappointed in Portland.
16

5

6

5.4

6.3

6.3

.523

.503

45.7%

10.9%

56.6%

0.5%

5.5%

Of the problems the Giants have encountered this season, the most pressing must be the loss of Brian Wilson and the team's corresponding drop in VORB (Value Over Replacement Beard).
17

5

7

4.6

4.9

4.5

.395

.415

0.2%

1.3%

1.4%

0.1%

0.7%

The A's have scored 33 runs, the second worst in baseball behind the Reds (32) . This is assuming you don't count Pittsburgh, which is like your younger sibling who your parents forced you to play with.
18

5

6

5.8

5.4

5.7

.497

.477

38.8%

21.2%

60.1%

-0.7%

25.0%

In 26 plate appearances, Juan Pierre is hitting .346/.346/.346. As long as he doesn't walk, get hit by a pitch, or get an extra-base hit, his slash stats should remain the same. This being Juan Pierre, there is a fair chance none of those things will happen.
19

6

5

6.2

6.2

6.2

.560

.579

66.5%

22.4%

88.9%

0.5%

9.8%

The experimental procedure Alex Rodriguez underwent last offseason has yet to help his hitting, as he's batting .227/.333/.341. In fairness, having live chipmunks implanted in his calves wasn't designed to make him a better hitter.
20

6

6

5.7

4.9

4.7

.443

.463

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.0%

0.6%

The Mariners have the lowest walk rate of any team in baseball at 4.6 percent, which is 7.7 percentage points behind the league-leading Indians. So if the Mariners walked twice as much, they'd still get out-walked by Cleveland.
21

6

5

5.7

4.3

3.7

.448

.429

22.1%

18.2%

40.4%

1.5%

14.6%

Chipper Jones' impending retirement will rob the game of one of the great hitters of this generation and Mets fans of one of the few remaining players that inspire such hatred that they (the fans) forget just for a split-second the state of the team they root for.
22

6

4

6.6

6.2

6.0

.618

.636

0.8%

5.1%

5.9%

0.3%

3.8%

When Jose Bautista homered, the Blue Jays announcer shouted, "He's baaaack!" Not good, but at least he didn't say, "Look out! It's a Bautistabomb!" or "Another latte served by the Bartista! Order up!"
23

7

4

6.6

6.6

6.8

.613

.594

29.7%

11.6%

41.3%

-1.1%

2.1%

The Diamondbacks are in the midst of a promising season, but giving up five runs to the Pirates should be a demotable offense. Sorry, guys, if you really wanted to stay in the NL you wouldn't have given up five to a lineup with four players hitting under .100.
24

7

4

6.2

6.0

5.4

.560

.579

0.4%

2.4%

2.8%

0.1%

1.8%

Nolan Reimold led off last night, proving that just because you're first in the lineup doesn't make you a leadoff hitter.
25

7

4

5.4

5.7

6.6

.559

.539

3.5%

5.7%

9.1%

-0.2%

1.7%

The Mets are 7-4 and have been outscored (by one run) on the year. Terry Collins calling out his players for weird and unfair reasons has worked!
26

8

3

8.0

8.9

8.9

.768

.754

63.2%

22.6%

85.8%

-0.2%

5.0%

Two years ago, Lance Berkman was a 34-year-old who hit .255/.358/.349 and ended up in a bench role with the Yankees. Now he's a coming off an All-Star year and is hitting .375/.565/.625. That makes sense in a basebally type of way.
27

8

3

7.3

6.9

6.7

.658

.676

65.8%

9.2%

75.0%

-0.1%

0.3%

Austin Jackson's walk rate has jumped almost 10 percent since last year. If he keeps that up, people might start to suspect he's really Barry Bonds in some sort of "Silence of the Lambs"-esque costume.
28

9

2

9.1

8.6

8.1

.789

.802

71.9%

20.0%

91.9%

0.9%

6.1%

Scoring 18 runs over a three-game series is pretty good. The Rangers did it in one evening in a game started by Jon Lester. That is probably better than pretty good.
29

9

2

7.2

7.6

8.0

.723

.707

9.7%

5.4%

15.1%

-0.8%

4.2%

Matt Kemp is hitting .487/.523/1.026 and yet his walk rate is lower than last year's. Since we're now 10 games into the season, this is entirely predictive. Kemp for Hall of Fame!
30

9

3

8.1

8.8

8.1

.708

.691

9.1%

11.7%

20.8%

-1.1%

4.4%

Gio Gonzalez' problem has always been wildness and the corresponding belief that if his wildness slowed his strikeout rate would fall. This season, Gonzalez has five walks and 21 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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