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Prospectus Hit List for April 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 16 Hit List for April 18
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Nothing is certain but death and Texas

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

5

5

4.6

3.5

2.9

.401

.382

20.4%

18.5%

38.9%

-1.3%

15.4%

Did you all know Eric Hinske is still playing? It's true! In an unrelated story, the Braves are already 2 1/2 games out and have been outscored on the season.
2

3

7

3.3

1.8

3.1

.279

.263

0.1%

1.0%

1.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

I had the Snark-O-Meter set on stun to tell you the Pirates scored their 20th run last night. But they didn't. [powers down]
3

4

6

4.3

3.5

3.4

.379

.360

24.9%

19.3%

44.3%

-0.3%

-1.3%

The Marlins need a lot to go right to compete for the NL East crown. Hanley Ramirez is hitting .282/.364/.487 with two homers, so there's one.
4

4

4

4.2

4.4

3.5

.504

.524

21.6%

13.8%

35.4%

0.8%

16.6%

What's the secret to a great OBP? Shin-Soo Choo recommends getting plenty of sleep, eating your greens, and getting nailed in the back by as many fastballs as possible.
5

4

6

5.1

4.2

3.5

.421

.441

29.6%

40.1%

69.7%

1.1%

20.1%

Since his offseason non-trade-request trade request, Bobby Abreu is hitting .231/.313/.385 while not playing any defense at all. Any day now, Bobby. I'm sure of it.
6

4

6

3.7

3.3

3.6

.364

.345

23.4%

32.8%

56.2%

0.7%

11.9%

How good was Ryan Braun last year? His .343/.400/.543 line in 2012 actually represents a small step back.
7

5

4

4.4

3.7

3.8

.468

.488

10.5%

8.2%

18.7%

-2.5%

3.3%

The "Is Dunn Done?" watch continues. In 39 plate appearances, Dunn has four extra-base hits, four walks, 16 strikeouts, and is hitting .200/.282/.371. Film at 11!
8

4

7

3.8

4.4

3.8

.365

.384

0.1%

1.2%

1.3%

-0.1%

0.3%

Other than Kila Ka'aihue, nobody in last night's A's lineup is hitting above .250.
9

4

6

4.1

3.9

4.0

.397

.378

4.7%

3.5%

8.2%

-1.4%

3.0%

The Jeremy Guthrie experience in Colorado isn't going swimmingly. Through 17 1/3 innings, Guthrie has allowed 15 runs. That's bad, but not as bad as this: he has given up four homers while striking out three.
10

4

6

3.9

3.3

4.1

.381

.363

13.4%

27.5%

40.9%

0.2%

12.3%

Joey Votto is hitting .294/.444/.471 but with only one home run. If it's the pressure from his new contract, he'll have another decade to learn to handle it.
11

6

5

5.3

4.4

4.2

.452

.472

0.1%

0.6%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

You have to admire Eric Wedge for not giving up on Chone Figgins despite two seasons of sub-putrid mess. Sadly, Figgins isn't helping Wedge or anyone else except opposing teams, hitting .250/.298/.341.
12

3

8

4.5

4.1

4.2

.360

.341

10.1%

5.5%

15.5%

0.4%

4.4%

A while back, I joked about Jeremy Hermida's presence on the Padres roster. Yesterday that was rectified when... no, wait, Hermida was hitting cleanup yesterday. Never mind.
13

3

7

4.2

3.9

4.3

.383

.365

0.4%

1.8%

2.2%

0.1%

1.2%

Sure, in the morning the Cubs put on their shoes one at a time, just like the rest of us, but then they lose a baseball game.
14

5

5

3.2

4.1

4.5

.418

.438

16.2%

35.6%

51.8%

2.4%

11.0%

James Shields was the balm for the rather nasty rash that had infested the Rays starting pitching staff. Take 8 1/3 innings of stellar work and call if symptoms persist.
15

3

7

3.3

4.3

4.5

.376

.395

1.3%

1.1%

2.4%

0.6%

1.3%

Sure, the small-ball Twins give up two outs, but at least on Monday they jumped ahead with three doubles and a homer first.
16

3

7

3.9

4.1

4.5

.387

.406

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

-0.0%

0.1%

The Royals have lost five in a row, which is tough because it probably reminds them that they're still the Royals.
17

5

4

5.7

5.4

5.0

.586

.606

0.9%

4.7%

5.6%

-0.5%

3.6%

An underreported part of the Blue Jays' 5-4 start is catcher Jeff Mathis, who is hitting .500/.571/.833 in seven plate appearances. With any luck it'll remain that way.
18

6

4

5.6

5.6

5.1

.557

.576

0.3%

2.3%

2.6%

0.8%

1.0%

Matt Wieters' two homers didn't hurt, but in the almost-as-promising category are Jake Arrieta's seven strikeouts and one walk in 6 2/3 innings. The Orioles need pitching like my kids use the potty: badly.
19

5

5

5.2

5.0

5.3

.512

.532

63.3%

25.1%

88.4%

-0.7%

11.6%

Derek Jeter has three homers in the first 10 games after hitting six in 131 games last season. The Yankees website says, "Heroes Remembered. Legends Born." Which one does this fall under?
20

4

6

4.7

5.6

5.4

.492

.472

44.4%

11.8%

56.1%

0.2%

5.9%

After his last two starts, the good news is that last night Tim Lincecum struck out six, walked one, and didn't give up a homer to the Phillies in six innings. The bad news is he still gave up five runs. So everything isn't peachy yet.
21

5

5

5.5

5.2

5.4

.529

.509

40.9%

19.9%

60.7%

-0.7%

25.5%

Roy Halladay gave up two runs over eight innings last night. So of course his ERA went up.
22

4

6

5.3

5.5

5.7

.511

.531

19.3%

37.6%

56.8%

-3.4%

22.4%

Between calling out Kevin Youkilis for no apparent reason, leaving Daniel Bard in to self-destruct, and eating those puppies in front of that church group, Bobby Valentine didn't have the best 24 hours.
23

4

6

4.9

5.8

5.9

.515

.495

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Many expected the Astros to lose 100 or more games this season. At 4-6 it might seem like they're really not that bad, but winning four out of every 10 games is a 97-loss pace. So yeah, actually, they probably are that bad.
24

7

3

5.6

5.5

6.3

.611

.592

4.0%

5.4%

9.3%

1.1%

-0.7%

In 2009, Jason Bay hit 36 homers for the Red Sox. In the two-plus seasons since, he has hit 22. And that includes the two he hit while rehabbing in Single A.
25

7

3

6.6

6.4

6.4

.659

.676

66.4%

8.6%

75.1%

0.9%

1.0%

As well as Justin Verlander pitched in last night's win over Kansas City, one could make a case that Royals starter Danny Duffy pitched almost as well. Duffy, after all, had to face the Tigers lineup, while Verlander got to face the Royals.
26

8

2

7.5

7.1

6.5

.726

.741

70.1%

20.8%

91.0%

0.6%

7.1%

Colby Lewis has 15 strikeouts and one walk in 12 2/3 innings this year. Has he turned over a new leaf? Maybe, but facing the Mariners and White Sox probably hasn't hurt.
27

7

3

6.2

6.4

6.7

.657

.638

31.1%

11.3%

42.4%

0.1%

0.7%

Chris Young hit his fifth homer last night, which, by my count, is five more than you and I have hit ever.
28

9

1

6.8

7.3

7.5

.765

.750

9.8%

6.2%

15.9%

0.4%

6.4%

Sure, Matt Kemp may have lost the 2011 MVP award to Ryan Braun, but I'm sure his NL Player of the Week award totally makes up for it.
29

8

3

7.4

8.2

7.7

.711

.694

9.8%

12.1%

21.9%

0.1%

9.2%

A 6-3 team takes the field with its ace on the mound and only a few more than 16,000 people show up to witness it? Oh well, they'll show up when the Nationals are in first place. Wait, the Nationals are in first place?
30

7

3

7.3

8.0

8.0

.755

.740

62.6%

23.4%

86.0%

0.6%

6.2%

After Alex Rodriguez left the Mariners before the 2001 season, Seattle scored 927 runs on the way to winning 116 games. Albert Pujols left St. Louis this offseason and now the Cardinals are the highest-scoring team in baseball. Coincidence? Probably.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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