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Prospectus Hit List for April 16



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 13 Hit List for April 17
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The things you thought were good are bad. The things you thought were bad are good.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

7

3

6.5

7.3

7.1

.699

.682

9.7%

12.2%

21.9%

-2.7%

8.9%

After struggling to win any races last season, Teddy Roosevelt spent the offseason working out at Athletes' Performance Institute in Arizona. Said Roosevelt, "Harumph rumph rumph!"
2

4

6

3.7

3.3

3.6

.364

.345

23.5%

32.0%

55.5%

-2.5%

-3.7%

Losing Prince Fielder would be tough for any team, but the Brewers have given up 57 runs in 10 games, the most in the NL. Fielder wasn't about to fix that.
3

5

3

4.6

4.2

4.4

.570

.590

12.2%

8.9%

21.2%

-2.5%

11.8%

At 5-3, the White Sox are a half-game behind the Tigers in the AL Central. For now I'm attributing this to witchcraft.
4

4

5

4.5

5.2

4.8

.514

.494

44.7%

11.2%

55.9%

-2.4%

15.8%

I urge you all to ignore Tim Lincecum's outsized 12.91 ERA and focus on the fact that rarely in life do two people as good as Lincecum and his opponent tonight, Roy Halladay, ever set foot on the diamond at the same time.
5

6

3

4.5

4.6

5.4

.569

.549

3.1%

5.1%

8.2%

-2.0%

-0.3%

The Mets are 6-3, which makes me pine for the days of Omar Minaya firing Willie Randolph in the middle of the night on a West Coast road trip.
6

5

4

4.5

4.2

3.6

.480

.500

0.2%

1.7%

1.9%

-0.9%

-0.7%

Somehow the Orioles managed the dual feat of being humiliated on their home field and staying in first place. It's the second of those two that really points toward it being early in the season.
7

6

3

6.2

7.3

7.3

.741

.726

62.5%

22.9%

85.4%

-0.5%

-2.2%

The Cardinals have a 2 1/2 game lead over second-place Houston (?) in the NL Central and have done it with little from star outfielder Matt Holliday, whose .200/.234/.356 line has successfully hidden under the sheen of a 7-3 record.
8

4

5

4.9

5.4

5.4

.546

.566

20.6%

39.7%

60.3%

-0.5%

25.9%

What do three wins in a row mean for greater Boston? An 18 percent drop in the suicide rate. Thanks, starting pitching!
9

3

6

4.4

3.5

3.8

.407

.388

0.4%

1.7%

2.1%

-0.4%

1.4%

If the Cubs are thinking of dealing Matt Garza, his 1.23 ERA in his first two starts is doing a heck of a job of raising his trade value.
10

4

5

2.7

3.3

3.6

.378

.397

14.1%

35.4%

49.4%

-0.3%

6.5%

Boston has outscored the Rays 31-11 through three games of a four-game series. The entire Tampa Bay pitching staff can share the blame, as Rays starters surrendered 14 runs and the bullpen gave up 17.
11

2

7

2.4

3.3

3.5

.314

.331

0.8%

0.9%

1.7%

-0.1%

0.2%

Many people did not expect the Twins to compete for the playoffs this season, which shows that many people were probably right.
12

6

5

5.3

4.4

4.2

.452

.472

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

-0.0%

0.3%

Much ado was made of the deal that sent Jesus Montero to Seattle for Michael Pineda, but so far the trade has had zero impact. Pineda is hurt and has yet to pitch for New York and Montero is hitting a mediocre .286/.270/.400 while starting eight of 10 games at DH.
13

4

5

4.7

5.6

5.7

.558

.538

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

If you can name all five members of the Astros' starting staff I swear to God I'll come to your house and give you a cookie.
14

4

6

4.1

4.5

3.8

.410

.429

0.1%

1.4%

1.4%

0.0%

0.5%

Jonny Gomes has three hits in 15 plate appearances. Two of the three are home runs. Jonny Gomes is Dave Kingman. Jonny Gomes is the ghost of a man who is not yet deceased.
15

3

6

3.5

3.8

4.2

.403

.422

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

0.1%

0.1%

Jeff Francoeur's walk rate is in the top half of Royals hitters.
16

2

8

3.4

2.9

3.4

.291

.274

9.6%

5.5%

15.1%

0.1%

2.7%

Former top prospect Cameron Maybin showed signs of life last year with San Diego, posting an OPS of .716. He's back to his old ways, with a slash line of .175/267/.300. If you were those old Muppets in the balcony, now would be the time to laugh..
17

6

3

5.2

5.4

5.7

.621

.602

30.3%

12.0%

42.3%

0.1%

-6.5%

Don't look for the Diamondbacks to fade anytime soon. They're starting a 10-game homestand today, beginning with the Pirates.
18

8

2

7.5

7.1

6.5

.725

.741

70.8%

19.6%

90.4%

0.2%

4.1%

The early returns on AL West race are all decidedly pointing toward the Rangers. There are only two things that look like they'll be able to stop the Rangers: injuries, and C.J. Wilson tweeting all their phone numbers.
19

9

1

6.8

7.3

7.5

.764

.750

9.8%

5.8%

15.6%

0.3%

4.8%

The best record and longest current win streak in the major leagues belong to the Dodgers. You can take that to any bank and they will forcibly remove you.
20

4

5

4.1

4.0

3.9

.444

.425

5.6%

4.0%

9.6%

0.3%

2.8%

This is not a Jamie Moyer joke: Moyer has the best K/BB ratio of any starting pitcher on the Rockies.
21

3

6

3.4

1.8

3.1

.315

.298

0.3%

1.1%

1.4%

0.3%

-0.4%

Your daily reminder that, through nine games, the Pirates have managed 18 total runs. How woeful is that? Just yesterday, the Orioles and Blue Jays scored nine runs apiece, the Cardinals scored 10, the Yankees scored 11, and the Indians scored 13.
22

5

4

5.1

4.9

5.2

.560

.580

64.2%

24.9%

89.1%

0.4%

22.1%

"In 3 1/3 innings, Mariano Rivera has given up five hits, two walks, and two runs. Could he be done?" -- the Hit List from April 16, 2003
23

4

6

4.3

3.5

3.4

.380

.362

25.3%

19.3%

44.6%

0.5%

8.2%

Omar Infante was the first Marlins player to homer at home this season, so you can blame him for being the first to set off the eight-story T.G.I. Friday's chachke.
24

6

3

5.9

5.6

5.8

.650

.668

65.2%

9.0%

74.2%

0.6%

-7.3%

Eighty-two percent of the times someone has said, "I don't believe it!" this season they've been referring to something done by a Tiger.
25

3

6

4.0

3.3

2.6

.358

.377

29.1%

39.6%

68.6%

0.7%

17.3%

Nine games in, Albert Pujols is hitting .250/.314/.344 with no homers. So yeah, he's probably done.
26

5

4

5.7

5.4

5.0

.587

.606

0.9%

5.2%

6.1%

0.7%

3.4%

Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson have six homers between them while Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista have a combined one. If this baseball season was a day, it would still be about 2 a.m.
27

4

4

4.2

4.4

3.5

.505

.525

21.5%

13.1%

34.6%

1.5%

15.8%

In his two starts totaling 13 1/3 innings, Derek Lowe has struck out three hitters, walked one, and forced 7,000 ground balls.
28

4

5

4.6

4.6

4.7

.497

.477

40.6%

20.8%

61.4%

1.7%

20.8%

Only two lineup regulars on the Phillies have an OPS over .800. It is doubtful that that information would compromise Roy Halladay's sleep in any way.
29

5

4

4.6

3.5

2.9

.443

.423

21.3%

18.9%

40.2%

3.5%

7.1%

After starting the season 0-4, the Braves have won five straight.
30

4

6

3.9

3.3

4.1

.381

.363

13.3%

27.4%

40.8%

3.6%

40.5%

Bronson Arroyo doesn't walk batters and he doesn't strike them out either, raising the question: Does Bronson Arroyo do anything?

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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