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Prospectus Hit List for April 12



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 11 Hit List for April 13
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The final two undefeateds have been defeated.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

5

2

5.2

5.7

5.8

.772

.758

64.0%

15.0%

79.0%

-1.9%

0.0%

The Cardinals' 37 runs are second in baseball. They're one behind the Red Sox who... no, wait. The Red Sox have allowed 38 runs. So, first place, then. [waves little flag]
2

5

1

4.0

4.5

4.6

.754

.739

9.8%

2.3%

12.2%

1.3%

0.0%

Matt Kemp is hitting .400/.385/.720. You may be wondering why his OBP is .015 less than his batting average. Sources tell me it has to do with a mysterious merry-go-round accident Kemp suffered as a child.
3

4

2

3.0

2.5

2.5

.503

.483

22.0%

20.6%

42.6%

-4.4%

0.0%

If you don't count Yovani Gallardo, Brewers starters have walked three batters in 23 innings. If you do count him, they've walked 412. Or it seems that way.
4

4

2

2.7

3.0

3.3

.544

.524

3.3%

1.4%

4.8%

-2.7%

0.0%

As we're all rapidly learning, a loss to Stephen Strasburg is nothing to be ashamed of. Further, the Mets have received two good starts in a row from Johan Santana.
5

4

3

3.3

2.9

2.8

.464

.483

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners have apparently signed former big-league pitcher Kevin Millwood's son and put him directly into the starting rotation. The kid is the spitting image of his old man, too.
6

4

1

3.6

3.8

3.9

.767

.781

70.6%

3.4%

74.0%

-0.8%

0.0%

The unstoppable 4-0 Tigers are now the relatively unstoppable 4-1 Tigers, after they and their unstoppable ace, Justin Verlander, fell apart in the ninth inning. Still, 4-1 is nothing to snarf milk through your nose at.
7

4

2

4.2

4.4

4.2

.700

.683

12.3%

5.0%

17.3%

0.9%

0.0%

Stephen Strasburg is to pitching what a sledgehammer is to a pillow fight. Six shutout innings, two hits, nine strikeouts Wednesday.
8

4

2

4.0

3.1

3.0

.587

.607

0.9%

1.4%

2.3%

0.1%

0.0%

Before yesterday, Ricky Romero had a 7.12 ERA against the Boston Red Sox. After 8 1/3 innings of one-run ball, it's fallen all the way to 6.40. Baby steps.
9

4

2

4.3

4.3

4.2

.701

.717

71.4%

11.9%

83.4%

-2.4%

0.0%

The Rangers have given up 15 runs on the season, the fewest in the American League. But adjusting for opponent--they've faced the White Sox and the Mariners--they have actually given up 612 runs.
10

4

1

3.0

3.2

3.7

.690

.673

30.1%

6.4%

36.5%

-2.7%

0.0%

Chris Denorfia's eighth-inning homer spoiled the 162-0 dream for Arizona. The Diamondbacks will have to content themselves with 160-2. Yeah, I said it, they're going to lose another game.
11

4

1

3.0

3.2

3.4

.682

.699

24.6%

20.4%

45.0%

8.3%

0.0%

The Rays became the first team to defeat the Tigers. The parade, slated for Saturday at 10 a.m., will feature face painting, four marching bands and Grand Marshall Dewon Brazelton.
12

3

3

2.2

2.1

2.6

.412

.393

13.4%

13.7%

27.1%

2.7%

0.0%

In five innings, Aroldis Chapman has 10 strikeouts and no walks. [drools]
13

3

3

3.1

3.0

3.0

.505

.525

59.7%

15.8%

75.5%

-3.6%

0.0%

That the Yankees just finished a three-game sweep of the Orioles shouldn't be surprising. Since 2009, the Yankees are 42-15 against Baltimore. The surprise is that New York didn't win four of the three games.
14

3

3

3.3

3.4

3.1

.537

.556

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

0.3%

0.0%

The next time the Yankees come to town the Orioles may as well just stay home and do the laundry. At least then they'd get something done.
15

3

3

3.4

3.6

3.8

.572

.591

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

-0.1%

0.0%

The Royals' 1.85 ERA from their starters leads the American League and is almost five runs less than Boston's ERA. The Red Sox are spending $54 million on their rotation. The Royals are spending $14.1 million. This proves once again that money can't buy happiness.
16

3

3

3.3

3.9

3.8

.583

.563

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Through yesterday's games, Humberto Quintero was the 19th-most valuable offensive player in all of baseball. You know, Quintero? He's a catcher? For Houston? No, I'm not making him up.
17

3

2

2.6

2.5

2.6

.533

.552

10.8%

2.9%

13.6%

-2.0%

0.0%

With two hits in a win over Cleveland yesterday, the possibly done Adam Dunn raised his batting average to .222 with two singles. Just three more seasons of this, White Sox fans.
18

3

4

2.9

2.9

2.2

.392

.411

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

-0.3%

0.0%

There are two hitters in baseball with 11 strikeouts. One is Toronto's J.P. Arencebia, who is hitting .091/.130/.227. The other is Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes, who is hitting .273/.429/.773. I suspect the truth is somewhere in between.
19

2

4

2.3

2.4

2.7

.391

.372

10.5%

2.5%

13.0%

2.5%

0.0%

The Padres beat the Diamondbacks, baseball's last unbeaten team. Hero of the night Chris Denorfia anagrams to Rancid Fire Hos.
20

2

3

2.0

1.0

1.6

.329

.311

0.3%

0.3%

0.5%

-0.2%

0.0%

If you're trying to find the Pirates' score, it's one. They scored one. They always score one.
21

2

3

2.6

2.5

2.5

.486

.466

39.5%

10.0%

49.5%

14.4%

0.0%

Whether your offense is going off or just off, it has to be comforting to have Roy Halladay on the mound, who has given up one run and seven hits in 15 innings on the year.
22

2

3

2.6

2.2

1.4

.412

.431

28.3%

23.8%

52.2%

3.0%

0.0%

Someone had to lose to the Twins eventually. It was nice of the Angels to take care of that for everyone.
23

2

4

2.4

1.9

2.3

.359

.341

28.0%

9.2%

37.2%

-6.6%

0.0%

Just about any scenario that ends in the Marlins making the postseason is going to feature a great season from Josh Johnson. Yesterday's six runs in 3 1/3 innings with only one strikeout isn't a part of that script.
24

2

3

2.4

2.2

1.9

.422

.403

4.0%

0.9%

4.9%

-0.9%

0.0%

I haven't looked it up, but I'm going to assume that when you're facing Tim Lincecum and your starter gives up six runs in 3 1/3 innings, your winning percentage is roughly akin to buying a Powerball ticket. The Rockies will take the lump sum, thank you.
25

2

4

2.4

1.4

0.9

.279

.264

16.9%

6.9%

23.8%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jason Heyward homered and is now hitting .316/.381/.632. Surprises are usually fun, but watching Jason Heyward fail in 2011 wasn't enjoyable for anybody.
26

1

4

1.1

1.0

1.0

.200

.213

0.5%

0.1%

0.6%

-0.4%

0.0%

Beating Anaheim and getting their first win of the season was a load off the Twins' backs. 'Phew! I'm glad that's over with,' said manager Ron Gardenhire. 'Now we can get back to the business of losing baseball games.'
27

1

4

1.5

1.9

1.5

.292

.309

17.8%

4.5%

22.3%

4.2%

0.0%

The Indians bullpen is the baseball equivalent of beer goggles. They make the other team seem much better than it really is.
28

1

5

2.0

2.2

2.5

.321

.304

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

-0.1%

0.0%

The Cubs scored one run and lost. This is something you will read a lot this year.
29

1

5

1.5

2.0

1.7

.258

.273

14.3%

14.6%

28.9%

-6.5%

0.0%

Hey, have you heard? The Red Sox have the worst [insert any stat here] in all of baseball!
30

1

4

2.1

2.3

2.1

.373

.355

45.6%

5.4%

50.9%

-0.2%

0.0%

Tim Lincecum's struggles intensified yesterday, as the two-time Cy Young winner gave up six runs to the Rockies. His total of 11 runs allowed this year is more than he gave up in May, July, or August of 2011.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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