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Prospectus Hit List for April 11



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 10 Hit List for April 12
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Tigers win one Moore while the Braves win one, at last.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLF AHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

0

4

0.5

0.4

0.4

.080

.087

0.9%

0.1%

1.1%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins didn't lose last night. Some may chalk that up to not playing a game, but those people are just correct.
2

1

4

1.6

0.9

0.6

.203

.190

19.6%

6.1%

25.7%

2.3%

0.0%

It took a team many projected to lose more than 110 games to halt the Braves' four-game losing streak.
3

1

3

0.9

0.9

0.7

.219

.205

4.6%

1.2%

5.8%

0.6%

0.0%

The Rockies starting lineup features one player, outfielder Michael Cuddyer, with an OBP higher than .294.
4

1

3

1.3

1.0

0.8

.256

.241

27.7%

7.4%

35.1%

-0.2%

0.0%

The Phillies' offense has turned the trio of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels from a luxury into a necessity.
5

1

3

1.3

1.2

0.8

.271

.287

14.6%

3.5%

18.1%

-0.7%

0.0%

For a small fee Justin Masterson will come to your kidís birthday party. He will give all the left-handed kids balloon animals and scare the crap out of all the right-handed kids.
6

1

4

1.3

1.7

1.5

.279

.295

16.9%

18.5%

35.4%

1.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox may be 1-4 but when they make the playoffs I'll be there to say "I told you so" and you'll say "Get out of my bedroom, it's three in the morning!"
7

2

3

1.6

1.2

1.7

.326

.308

10.2%

14.2%

24.4%

-4.2%

0.0%

Cincinnati may be 2-3 and coming off a playoffless 2011 season, but give them credit for doubling down by spending almost $300 million on Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto.
8

1

4

1.7

1.8

2.0

.328

.310

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

-0.1%

0.0%

Kerry Wood's ERA is 27.00, his HR/9 is 9.00, his BABIP is .500 and his HR/FB rate is 100%. How many Old Styles do you have to drink before those numbers look decent? Somewhere in the vicinity of his ERA would do the trick.
9

1

4

1.8

2.0

2.3

.352

.334

8.4%

2.2%

10.6%

-0.6%

0.0%

After Arizona's defense handed the Padres a triple, shortstop Jason Bartlett tied the game with a hit that he tried to stretch into a double. He was thrown out by 10 feet. San Diego lost in extra innings. Padres Baseball: It's like a disease first-world countries require inoculation from.
10

2

4

2.2

2.5

2.0

.361

.379

0.3%

0.5%

0.7%

-0.3%

0.0%

In 19 plate appearances, Yoenis Cespedes has four hits: three home runs and a double.
11

2

2

2.0

1.1

1.9

.440

.421

0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

-0.5%

0.0%

The good news: the Pirates have allowed only eight runs, the fewest of any team in baseball. The bad news: the Pirates have scored only eight runs, the fewest of any team in baseball.
12

2

3

2.6

2.2

2.5

.468

.449

35.1%

8.6%

43.8%

-1.8%

0.0%

Ozzie Guillen's ratio of games managed to games suspended might be enough to qualify for unemployment.
13

3

3

2.7

2.4

2.4

.436

.455

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

Last night's 1-0 loss to Texas marked both the sixth overall game of the season for the Mariners and the first game in which Chone Figgins failed to get a hit.
14

3

2

2.4

2.1

2.2

.483

.463

24.2%

22.9%

47.0%

2.7%

0.0%

Your Major League OPS leader is Corey Hart with a 1.783, a full .438 better than Prince Fielder's banal 1.345.
15

2

2

2.2

1.8

1.2

.456

.476

25.7%

23.5%

49.1%

-0.4%

0.0%

Due to Albert Pujols' defection, comparisons between his Angels and the Cardinals will probably be made. And lo and behold here comes one now: the Angels' one home run this season is eight fewer than the league-leading Cardinals' nine.
16

1

3

2.4

2.4

2.2

.499

.479

45.6%

5.6%

51.2%

0.9%

0.0%

All three of the Giants' losses have come by one run. All one of the Giants' wins have come by seven runs. What can we take from this? Nothing whatsoever.
17

2

3

2.4

2.4

2.4

.459

.479

64.8%

14.3%

79.1%

2.2%

0.0%

Yesterday, Freddy Garcia (three walks, five wild pitches, and a hit-by-pitch) made a pretty good case to remain the Yankees' No. 7 starter.
18

2

2

1.6

2.0

2.2

.486

.506

12.2%

3.4%

15.6%

0.2%

0.0%

From the U.S. Department of Small Sample Sizes: White Sox starting third baseman Brent Morel has a .154 OPS and a -55 OPS+.
19

3

2

3.2

2.4

2.4

.550

.570

0.7%

1.5%

2.1%

0.1%

0.0%

Jose Bautista went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against Boston Tuesday and the Blue Jays still scored seven runs.
20

3

2

3.2

3.3

3.0

.625

.606

12.1%

4.3%

16.4%

3.7%

0.0%

Going into last nightís game, the Mets were undefeated and Jayson Werth had never had more than three hits as a National. So much for those things.
21

3

2

3.1

3.4

3.2

.638

.619

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

They're going fast, so act now, National League, because this almost guaranteed win is moving to the American League next year!
22

3

2

3.1

3.1

2.9

.603

.622

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

-0.7%

0.0%

Mark Reynolds' attempts to play third base played no small part in the Orioles' loss to the Yankees yesterday. That said, it's hard to fault Reynolds. He's clearly overmatched by the position and shouldn't have been there to begin with.
23

3

2

3.1

3.0

3.2

.615

.634

0.4%

0.1%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

For those of you who love symmetry: on the season Mitch Maier is hitting .000/1.000/.000.
24

4

1

2.8

3.1

3.4

.663

.645

5.4%

2.1%

7.5%

-2.6%

0.0%

With last night's loss to the Nationals, the 4-1 Mets are now on pace to win only 130 games.
25

3

1

2.3

2.5

2.7

.658

.676

17.3%

19.4%

36.7%

-4.1%

0.0%

Last year in 19 1/3 innings, Matt Moore walked six batters. In 6 2/3 innings against the Tigers Tuesday, he walked five.
26

4

1

3.2

3.5

3.6

.714

.697

8.2%

2.6%

10.9%

1.3%

0.0%

The true meaning of batting order: Dee Gordon has led off in every game. His 20 plate appearances are the most on the team, and he has used them to hit .222/.300/.278.
27

4

0

2.5

2.6

3.0

.758

.743

33.2%

6.0%

39.2%

-2.6%

0.0%

At 4-0, the Diamondbacks are the National League's only remaining undefeated team. By my projections, that puts them on pace to finish 4-158. I am very good at math.
28

4

1

3.9

3.8

3.7

.772

.786

74.0%

11.7%

85.7%

1.8%

0.0%

In looking for something to highlight, I found that the Rangers do everything well. You can now add Neftali Feliz' starting pitching (seven scoreless on Tuesday) to the list of everything.
29

5

1

4.7

5.3

5.4

.848

.838

65.0%

15.8%

80.8%

1.1%

0.0%

The Cardinals are 5-1 and have scored the most runs of any team in baseball. Looks like they did the right thing letting Dave Duncan walk.
30

4

0

3.2

3.1

3.2

.845

.855

71.9%

2.9%

74.7%

0.6%

0.0%

At 4-0 the Tigers are still nine wins away from tying the '82 Braves and '87 Brewers for most wins to start a season.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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