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Prospectus Hit List for April 10



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 9 Hit List for April 11
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Orioles at the top, Twins at the bottom, and the National League is storming the Braves.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

3

0

2.4

2.3

2.3

.836

.847

71.4%

2.7%

74.1%

-7.4%

0.0%

The Tigers should just end their season right here. No amount of playoff-winning is going to top the sense of optimism that now permeates greater Detroit.
2

4

0

2.8

3.2

3.4

.837

.826

7.3%

2.8%

10.1%

1.6%

0.0%

Today is April 10 and the Mets have the best record in baseball. That means some small cult somewhere is preparing for the rapture.
3

4

1

3.9

4.3

4.4

.832

.821

64.2%

15.6%

79.8%

-7.8%

0.0%

The Cardinals have scored the most runs in baseball (31), so clearly they made the right decision to not re-sign Gerald Laird.
4

3

0

2.1

2.2

2.3

.796

.809

20.1%

20.7%

40.8%

-2.1%

0.0%

The Rays were off Monday, which makes sense because they've played three games in the last five months.
5

3

0

1.8

2.1

2.4

.773

.758

35.9%

5.8%

41.8%

-7.0%

0.0%

There's nothing wrong with a day off while in first place.
6

3

1

3.1

2.9

2.7

.733

.748

72.7%

11.2%

83.9%

-2.4%

0.0%

Yu Darvish made his debut, giving up five runs and walking four in five and two-thirds, but he got the win. Apparently, they teach pitching to the score in Japan.
7

3

1

2.7

3.1

2.9

.731

.746

0.5%

1.1%

1.6%

-1.0%

0.0%

The Orioles are still the blast of antibiotics to the Gonorrhea that is an opposing team's losing streak. They won't be in this spot for long.
8

3

1

2.8

3.0

2.7

.722

.706

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

0.0%

Ah, if only the Astros could play the Braves all year. Actually, they'd probably still lose 110 games.
9

3

1

2.5

2.5

2.7

.671

.653

7.1%

2.4%

9.5%

-1.2%

0.0%

Kershaw and Billingsley then pray for encephalopathy.
10

2

1

1.7

1.3

1.9

.577

.557

0.5%

0.8%

1.3%

-0.4%

0.0%

Maybe they just had a good opening series, or maybe they are decent (maybe?), but the Pirates have allowed 22 fewer runs than the Red Sox.
11

2

2

2.1

1.9

2.3

.522

.542

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

-0.0%

0.0%

So far this year, the Royals' playoff chances have dropped by 0.1 percent. That might not seem like much until you see that their playoff chances are now 0.4 percent.
12

2

2

2.3

1.9

1.8

.501

.521

0.8%

1.2%

2.0%

-0.7%

0.0%

Three walks, two hits, and an opening-night loss. Sergio Santos is doing his impersonation of the Twelve Days of Christmas, minus the mirth.
13

3

2

2.3

2.3

2.2

.493

.513

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

Spotted to a four-run lead when Yu Darvish got a case of the nerves, the mariners capitalized as much as I just capitalized their name.
14

2

2

1.6

2.0

2.2

.486

.506

12.2%

3.2%

15.4%

6.0%

0.0%

There probably will come a fleeting moment in the near future when everything Kenny Williams did this winter all makes perfect sense. Then the neutrons will disassemble and we’ll all be left thinking, ‘Huh?’
15

2

2

2.2

2.0

1.7

.500

.480

9.0%

3.7%

12.7%

-0.2%

0.0%

Live by the sword, die by the sword. The Nationals started the year with a ninth-inning comeback against the Cubs, but since then have been victimized twice themselves, including last night. Now that Drew Storen is headed to see Dr. James Andrews this may become a theme.
16

1

3

2.4

2.4

2.2

.499

.479

44.0%

6.3%

50.2%

10.2%

0.0%

Barry Zito threw his first shutout as a Giant. That's either good or terrible news. I'm not sure.
17

2

2

2.2

1.8

1.2

.456

.476

26.9%

22.7%

49.6%

-1.8%

0.0%

Lost in the Yu Darvish enthusiasm was this: C.J. Wilson made his Angels debut and it was much better than Darvish's. Wilson went seven innings, giving up one run on three hits and four walks. Not bad for a No. 4 starter.
18

2

3

2.1

2.5

2.2

.442

.462

0.4%

0.7%

1.0%

0.1%

0.0%

The trick to winning when you don't score much is preventing the other team from showing up to the park by putting nails in their tires. Or you could just pitch really well. Either way, really.
19

2

3

2.6

2.2

2.5

.468

.449

38.0%

7.6%

45.6%

9.2%

0.0%

After last season's poor showing, Hanley Ramirez is off to a .158/.238/.368 start to the year. He'll have a chance to redeem himself, as nine of the Marlins' next 14 games come against the Astros, Cubs, and Mets.
20

1

3

1.8

1.5

1.7

.373

.392

61.8%

15.0%

76.9%

9.9%

0.0%

Yesterday, the Yankees reminded Brian Matusz that it is no longer spring training. They did this by sending a really cute e-card of a talking turtle saying, "No more spring turtraining!" Then they beat him at baseball.
21

2

2

1.7

1.4

1.5

.409

.390

21.8%

22.6%

44.3%

-15.0%

0.0%

From the U.S. Department of Small Sample Sizes: Corey Hart is slugging 1.556.
22

2

2

1.4

1.3

1.7

.400

.381

13.2%

15.4%

28.6%

28.3%

0.0%

Jay Bruce is slugging 1.091 with a .250 OBP. That's Alfonso Soriano's favorite porno mag.
23

1

3

1.5

1.6

1.8

.368

.349

0.4%

0.7%

1.0%

0.4%

0.0%

The Cubs were the only team without a homer before Darwin Barney and Bryan LaHair went deep yesterday. The Cubs still lost. Viva la 2015!
24

1

3

1.5

1.5

1.7

.354

.336

8.8%

2.3%

11.2%

-1.3%

0.0%

Chase Headley's eighth-inning grand slam helped the Padres avoid their first 0-4 start in 18 years.
25

1

3

1.2

1.3

1.2

.289

.306

16.8%

17.7%

34.4%

0.1%

0.0%

Not only did the Red Sox win a game, they did it at the expense of someone else's bullpen meltdown. This shows they are 1) better than some in the media would have you believe and 2) kinda mean.
26

1

3

1.3

1.2

0.8

.271

.287

15.2%

3.6%

18.8%

-0.0%

0.0%

The Indians have three ex-Red Sox on their pitching staff. That's probably not a good sign for the long term.
27

1

3

1.3

1.0

0.8

.256

.241

27.9%

7.4%

35.3%

-5.3%

0.0%

Over their first four games, the Phillies have scored 1, 1, 4, and 2 runs. Next thing you know, they'll be using the same ball all game and requiring all male patrons to wear bowler hats.
28

1

3

0.9

0.9

0.7

.219

.205

4.1%

1.1%

5.2%

-1.6%

0.0%

The Rockies are experimenting with storing members of their starting rotation in a humidor between innings.
29

0

4

0.9

0.4

0.3

.096

.089

17.8%

5.6%

23.5%

-9.6%

0.0%

The Braves are 0-4, having lost two each to the Mets and Astros, two teams many projected to lose a combined 200 games. See, Boston? It could be worse.
30

0

4

0.5

0.4

0.4

.080

.087

0.9%

0.1%

1.1%

-0.5%

0.0%

After scoring just six runs and losing their first four games, the Twins were given a timeout where they had to sit in the corner and think about what they did.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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