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Prospectus Hit List for April 9



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 8 Hit List for April 10
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Motor City is fighting again.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

3

0

2.6

2.8

2.7

.923

.928

1.2%

1.4%

2.5%

-0.1%

0.0%

Dogs and cats living together, and the Baltimore Orioles in first place in the AL East. (Apr 8)
2

3

1

2.5

2.5

2.7

.671

.653

8.2%

2.5%

10.8%

-6.5%

0.0%

It is odd that the team who employs Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw also employs Juan Uribe and Aaron Harang. Magic Johnson may want to fix this. (Apr 8)
3

3

1

2.4

2.2

2.1

.608

.627

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.0%

0.0%

Over the last three weeks, the Mariners have traveled from Arizona to Tokyo (8,130 miles), back to Arizona (another 8,130 miles), then to Oakland (737 miles), and now to Texas (1,707 miles). That’s a total of 18,704 miles, which, if you think about it, is a lot. (Apr 8)
4

3

0

2.4

2.3

2.3

.836

.847

78.6%

2.8%

81.5%

-5.0%

0.0%

Short of a study revealing that cigarettes cure cancer, you would be hard-pressed to come up with a better start to the season for Jim Leyland. Five Tigers batters are hitting over .400. (Apr 8)
5

2

1

2.2

2.1

2.0

.689

.706

74.6%

11.7%

86.3%

1.7%

0.0%

The Yu Darvish era begins today. Get your commemorative Franklin Mint coins and dishes before they’re gone! (Apr 8)
6

3

0

2.1

2.6

2.7

.868

.858

5.9%

2.6%

8.5%

1.1%

0.0%

If any three-game sample can surprise you, it might be the Mets' current 3-0 record and their residence in first place in the NL East. Last year when the Mets lost 85 games, they had 12 streaks of three or more wins in a row. So don’t count your chickens and all that.  (Apr 8)
7

3

0

2.1

2.2

2.3

.796

.809

25.7%

17.2%

42.9%

2.5%

0.0%

Three games into the year and the Rays already have a three-game lead over the Red Sox and Yankees. You just can’t buy something like that, unless you’re the Red Sox or the Yankees. (Apr 8)
8

2

1

2.0

2.5

2.5

.754

.739

71.6%

16.0%

87.6%

2.3%

0.0%

Through four games, your top-hitting NL team is the St. Louis Cardinals at .327/.384/.507. Clearly, not re-signing Albert Pujols was the straw that stirred the drink. (Apr 8)
9

2

1

2.0

1.8

1.7

.624

.643

1.1%

1.6%

2.7%

-1.0%

0.0%

All the hullabaloo over the Jays this year seems like it might be a bit much when you consider that their fourth and fifth starters are Kyle Drabek and [not listed].  (Apr 8)
10

2

1

1.9

1.6

1.3

.563

.543

8.8%

4.1%

12.9%

-0.9%

0.0%

Taking two out of three from the Cubs should be expected of a team that fancies itself a contender, so the fact that the Nationals managed that should be A) a relief, B) exciting, or C) those phone calls are coming from INSIDE THE HOUSE! (Apr 8)
11

2

1

1.8

1.7

1.3

.576

.556

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They use the Houston Astros drinking game, wherein you drink when the Astros score a run, at AA meetings. (Apr 8)
12

3

0

1.8

2.1

2.4

.773

.758

43.2%

5.6%

48.8%

0.1%

0.0%

A press release from the United States Department of Small Sample Sizes: Lyle Overbay is slugging 2.000. (Apr 8)
13

2

1

1.7

1.7

2.0

.616

.635

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

-0.1%

0.0%

The Royals' 2-1 start was marred as mascot Sluggerrr, a lion/bear thing whose head morphs into a crown at the top, pulled a tail muscle and has been placed on the disabled list. The team has called up Single-A mascot Mr. Celery, whose Wackiness Quotient was very high in spring training.  (Apr 8)
14

2

1

1.7

1.3

1.9

.577

.557

0.5%

1.2%

1.7%

1.0%

0.0%

Raise your hand if you can guess the NL team that has given up the fewest runs (6).  (Apr 8)
15

1

3

1.7

1.2

1.2

.314

.297

27.8%

8.6%

36.4%

4.6%

0.0%

You can cross Miami’s Cuban ex-patriot community off Ozzie Guillen’s "To Insult" list. (Apr 8)
16

1

3

1.6

1.8

1.6

.373

.392

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

-0.0%

0.0%

Yoenis Cespedes is your major league home run leader (tied with Miguel Cabrera and Jay Bruce) with three. That concludes the list of positives thus far for the A’s. (Apr 8)
17

1

3

1.5

1.5

1.7

.354

.336

9.7%

2.8%

12.4%

6.1%

0.0%

Perhaps the surest sign that it is very early in the season isn’t so much that Jeremy Hermida is hitting .500, but that he’s on a major-league roster at all.  (Apr 8)
18

1

2

1.3

1.5

1.2

.413

.393

32.1%

8.5%

40.6%

-7.7%

0.0%

While the Phillies have given up the second-fewest runs in the National League (7), they’ve also scored the fewest (6). The 2012 Phillies: bringing back the Deadball Era. (Apr 8)
19

1

2

1.3

1.3

0.9

.375

.394

25.0%

26.4%

51.4%

-1.2%

0.0%

It was helpful of Albert Pujols to sign with the Angels as their uniform colors are similar to the Cardinals'. Had Pujols signed with Miami, Baltimore or the Dodgers it would have been much more visually jarring. (Apr 8)
20

0

3

1.2

1.0

1.1

.284

.268

33.5%

6.6%

40.1%

1.1%

0.0%

The fact that there are 159 games left in the season is probably not very comforting to Giants fans.  (Apr 8)
21

1

2

1.2

1.3

0.7

.344

.326

5.4%

1.4%

6.8%

0.7%

0.0%

A lineup convention hosted by Jim Tracy would feature the following speakers: 1) the building’s janitor, 2) the audio/visual guy, and 3) the main speaker.  (Apr 8)
22

1

2

1.1

1.3

1.4

.400

.381

0.2%

0.5%

0.7%

0.4%

0.0%

The Cubs are the only team in baseball yet to hit a home run, which is surprising, as you’d think Blake DeWitt calling his shot would have worked.  (Apr 8)
23

1

2

1.0

1.2

0.8

.339

.358

13.1%

5.7%

18.8%

2.9%

0.0%

Between Derek Lowe and Justin Masterson, the soil in Cleveland is likely to resemble Georgia in 1865. Because Lowe and Masterson are worm-burners. And in 1865 Georgia was burned never mind.  (Apr 8)
24

1

2

1.0

0.8

1.0

.311

.294

27.5%

31.8%

59.3%

-6.2%

0.0%

Think the 1-2 Brewers might miss Prince Fielder’s .417/.429/.917 line? Well, sure, but those numbers will fall. He doesn’t get to face the Red Sox bullpen every day.  (Apr 8)
25

0

3

0.9

0.8

1.1

.239

.254

52.4%

14.6%

67.0%

-5.3%

0.0%

Does Joe Girardi’s binder have an entry for how to handle the New York media after starting 0-3? Are you kidding? Of course it does. (Apr 8)
26

0

3

0.9

0.4

0.4

.135

.126

25.4%

7.6%

33.1%

3.8%

0.0%

For all the attention the Red Sox get for their collapse last year, the Braves had a similar feat. Also like the Sox, Atlanta has started the year 0-3. But hey, Chipper Jones is expected back soon, so hooray.  (Apr 8)
27

1

2

0.8

0.9

0.9

.306

.323

6.8%

2.7%

9.4%

-0.3%

0.0%

Robin Ventura has suspended his twitter account. This is beyond sad. (Apr 8)
28

0

3

0.6

0.7

0.7

.165

.177

19.6%

14.7%

34.3%

5.8%

0.0%

The Red Sox are 0-3 after getting swept by Detroit, the pitching staff has given up the most runs in baseball, and to top it all off, on Sunday Valentine had Nick Punto hitting leadoff. So, yeah. Flying start and all that. (Apr 8)
29

0

3

0.4

0.2

0.2

.070

.075

1.2%

0.4%

1.5%

0.1%

0.0%

In three games, the Twins have managed to score a total of five runs. It would have been more but their opponents wanted to beat them. (Apr 8)
30

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

The Reds are five wins away from their 10,000th win as a franchise. After a three-game series with St. Louis at home, they’re on the road for the next 10 games. So in order to celebrate that momentous occasion at home they’re going to have to do a lot of losing. This may not be a problem. (Apr 8)

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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