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Prospectus Hit List for April 6



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 29 Hit List for April 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Strasmas is over. Get ready for Danksgiving.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

1

1

1.2

1.7

1.6

.682

.699

0.3%

1.6%

1.8%

-95.5%

0.0%

After improving the fan experience by removing thousands of seats, the A’s have announced they will improve the overall quality of their players by fielding only six at a time.
2

1

0

0.7

1.0

1.0

.909

.902

5.7%

3.3%

9.0%

-9.1%

0.0%

The Magic Era got off to a magic start when Clayton Kershaw had to leave the game after three innings because of barfiness. The Dodgers still won. Also, Frank McCourt bought a hot dog for $6 and sold it to a guy a couple seats over for $27.
3

1

0

0.7

0.9

0.9

.867

.875

60.2%

8.7%

68.8%

33.1%

0.0%

While you were watching Stephen Strasburg, Justin Verlander was demonstrating the phenom’s best-case future: eight shutout innings, two hits, seven strikeouts and a walk, against a Red Sox lineup that looked imposing until the first pitch was thrown.
4

1

0

1.0

0.8

0.9

.927

.921

2.4%

3.5%

5.9%

-9.3%

0.0%

After the win, Terry Collins called out his team for being gutless cowards.
5

1

0

1.0

0.7

0.7

.848

.837

33.7%

19.9%

53.5%

-22.2%

0.0%

Yesterday the sun rose in the sky, waves crashed against the shore, the Republicans held another debate (probably, I don’t know), and Roy Halladay threw eight shutout innings to get the win. Yawn.
6

1

0

0.7

0.7

0.5

.732

.716

8.8%

11.1%

19.9%

12.0%

0.0%

If Stephen Strasburg pitched every day, the Nationals would be playoff favorites. Facing the Cubs every day wouldn’t hurt either.
7

1

0

0.8

0.6

0.6

.723

.738

0.5%

4.4%

4.9%

-41.1%

0.0%

Jose Bautista homered in the fourth to pull the Jays within three, and a game-and-a-third’s worth of innings later, Toronto finally won. Colby Rasmus went 0-7, causing his father to demand a trade.
8

0

1

0.2

0.4

0.3

.234

.249

25.4%

10.9%

36.3%

-5.2%

0.0%

Justin Masterson, who you will remember can’t get lefties out, gave up two hits over eight innings while striking out 10 and walking one. Eight innings after he was removed, the Indians lost the longest Opening Day game ever.
9

1

1

0.8

0.3

0.3

.308

.326

0.0%

0.2%

0.3%

-40.3%

0.0%

After splitting the first series with the A’s in a dome in a city filled with Asian people by the Pacific Ocean, the Mariners return home to face the A’s in a dome in a city filled with Asian people by the Pacific Ocean. The difference? Tokyo has a basketball team.
10

0

1

0.0

0.3

0.3

.167

.156

0.4%

1.3%

1.7%

-9.3%

0.0%

Was the Pirates’ lack of hitting the result of facing Roy Halladay or the result of being the Pirates? I’m going to guess both.
11

0

1

0.3

0.3

0.3

.205

.192

0.5%

1.7%

2.2%

-15.6%

0.0%

On the cover of the Chicago Sun-Times’ Cubs preview issue was a photo of Theo Epstein walking on water. After last night’s loss the euphoria over the new GM might have faded just a bit. No matter. The Cubs are 1) still the Cubs and 2) on the right track anyway.
12

0

1

0.0

0.2

0.2

.077

.071

26.1%

20.5%

46.6%

-9.0%

0.0%

The Chipper Jones farewell tour is off to a lousy start. If it’s any consolation, the Opening Day loss was to the Mets, who are in first place.
13

0

1

0.3

0.1

0.1

.136

.146

20.6%

42.2%

62.8%

13.7%

0.0%

The names were different but the results were the same. The Red Sox overcame a two-run deficit thanks to good-glove-no-hit Ryan Sweeney’s ninth-inning triple, only to see their newly reorganized bullpen blow the lead less than a half-inning later.
14

0

1

0.3

0.1

0.1

.126

.118

10.7%

5.9%

16.6%

-4.5%

0.0%

The Padres hit 33 percent of all the home runs that have been hit in the National League this year, provided you are reading this early in the morning.
15

0

2

0.1

0.1

0.1

.033

.031

29.1%

22.2%

51.3%

16.6%

0.0%

The new-look Marlins are now 0-2 after Mark Buehrle couldn’t hold back the Reds’ offense. The Marlins have managed but a single a run while Hanley Ramirez is on-baseless in eight plate appearances.
16

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

16.9%

28.3%

45.2%

32.6%

0.0%

Jay Bruce’s home run measured 440 feet and is the longest homer hit so far this season. To put that into perspective, it’s the distance between your face and your computer times 440.
17

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

8.8%

4.8%

13.6%

-10.0%

0.0%

Be wary of a fast start by the Rockies as their April schedule features 13 games against the Astros, Padres, Pirates, Mets, and Dodgers.
18

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-27.5%

0.0%

The Astros are 300-1 to win the World Series this season. If they played the season 300 times do you really think there’s a chance the Astros would make the playoffs once, let alone win the World Series?
19

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

-5.6%

0.0%

Could this be the Royals year? No. No, it could not.
20

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

31.3%

31.8%

63.1%

43.5%

0.0%

The Brewers will miss Prince Fielder. Getting cheese doodles at the post-game buffet will be marginally easier.
21

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

12.1%

7.5%

19.6%

8.2%

0.0%

In blackjack, Kenny Williams hits on 21. The weird thing is, sometimes it works.
22

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

35.2%

39.8%

75.0%

72.3%

0.0%

Mike Trout had three hits in his season opener Thursday night, but it was in Triple-A Salt Lake. Nobody unseats Vernon Wells, ya hear? At least, not for a few more weeks.
23

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

26.7%

10.4%

37.0%

20.3%

0.0%

Why isn’t Curt Schilling saying mean things about the Diamondbacks? Isn’t it about time for that?
24

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

0.1%

1.9%

2.0%

-6.0%

0.0%

The best-case scenario for the 2012 Orioles might involve losing 120 games and getting the first overall pick in the draft. Unfortunately for them, they’re probably not quite lousy enough. Being sub-ghastly is hard.
25

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

64.6%

24.2%

88.8%

85.8%

0.0%

After dodging an actual tornado a couple days back, playing the White Sox probably won’t seem like much of a challenge for the Rangers. Actually, even without the tornado, it isn’t.
26

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

66.4%

23.5%

89.9%

79.5%

0.0%

According to the odds-makers, the Yankees are the favorites to win the division, the league, the World Series, the Mega Millions jackpot, and the Republican presidential nomination.
27

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

48.1%

9.5%

57.7%

34.1%

0.0%

Brandon Belt will play! If the Giants keep bringing above-average players up from the minors at this rate, they’ll be the best team in baseb—aw, crud, they just signed Ryan Klesko again.
28

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

50.9%

25.6%

76.5%

57.5%

0.0%

The Cardinals may not have the best hitter in baseball anymore, but they more than make up for it in manager handsomeness.
29

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

12.3%

33.9%

46.2%

19.6%

0.0%

The Rays may win the division or the Rays may finish in fourth place but one thing is for certain: not many people will see them do it.
30

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.500

.500

2.0%

1.1%

3.1%

-18.5%

0.0%

The Twins lost 99 games last year, but if Justin Morneau is healthy and Joe Mauer remembers how to hit for power they might not lose quite that many this year.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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