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Prospectus Hit List for September 28



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 27 Hit List for September 29
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

With one game left, both Wild Card races are now tied.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

62

99

61.1

55.4

55.7

.364

.382

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rene Tosoni hit a grand slam for the Twins, who need to win tonight to avoid 100 losses. It was the first grand slam by a Twins player at Target Field.
2

56

105

62.3

61.6

61.9

.375

.357

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brett Myers is probably the right guy to help the Astros play spoiler on Wednesday. In September, Myers has a 1.23 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks. But he's 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA against the Cardinals this season.
3

68

93

65.5

63.2

64.4

.405

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Adam Jones’s epic battle with Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth inning nearly capped yet another improbable Orioles victory. Despite the loss, the O’s deserve plenty of credit for their spirited rally in the late innings.
4

72

89

69.6

63.5

62.4

.415

.396

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ross Ohlendorf’s a smart guy—he went to Princeton, after all. But, apparently, they don’t teach you to be careful around bat-wielding, 275-pound sluggers in Ivy League classrooms, because Prince Fielder took him deep twice.
5

67

94

66.9

68.4

69.7

.422

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Catcher Miguel Olivo will finish as the team leader in homers (19) and RBI (62). A catcher has led his team in those categories just three times since 1961: Cleveland's John Romano (1962), Detroit's Lance Parrish (1983), and Cleveland's Victor Martinez (2007). Olivo will have fewer homers and RBI than all three of them.
6

71

90

70.4

70.4

69.7

.437

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Someone forgot to tell Bud Black that if Alfonso Soriano’s at the plate, Chad Qualls should be nowhere near the mound. Soriano came in to his eighth inning at-bat 5-for-11 with a homer against Qualls. Now, he’s 6-for-12 with two dingers, including Tuesday’s game-winner.
7

70

91

77.5

72.2

71.9

.453

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With their loss on Tuesday, the Padres are now locked into last place in the NL West, just a year after coming within a win of the division title.
8

80

81

74.8

73.5

74.1

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Asdrubal Cabrera won't play for the Indians today, but the power he discovered this season has to be encouraging. In his first four seasons, he totaled 18 homers. In 2011, he hit 25. Now he needs to cut down on the strikeouts.
9

73

88

76.5

75.2

76.5

.468

.488

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It looks like Trevor Cahill has gotten past his shaky summer. Since going 1-8 with a 6.07 ERA from June 30 until Aug. 30, Cahill has a 3.56 ERA. He looked extremely sharp on Tuesday, spreading four hits through seven scoreless innings.
10

80

81

78.6

76.6

79.0

.488

.508

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It was nice of Toronto native Jesse Crain to give up a homer to the powerless Mike McCoy in the eighth inning. The big fly was McCoy’s first extra-base hit since September 20th and his first round-tripper since April 30th.
11

76

84

77.3

76.9

77.4

.481

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With two homers on Tuesday, Jose Reyes bumped his average to .336, finishing the night one point ahead of Milwaukee's Ryan Braun for the NL batting title. Reyes impresses in Mets' loss ... how many times have we seen this before?
12

79

81

77.6

77.5

77.9

.488

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Leadoff man Ian Desmond made four plate appearances on Wednesday and saw seven total pitches. Sure, he got two hits, but Desmond was chiefly responsible for Javier Vazquez needing just 97 pitches to complete the game.
13

71

90

77.3

77.5

78.3

.472

.492

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

On his 25th birthday, Vin Mazzaro gave up a grand slam to Minnesota's Rene Tosoni on the first pitch he threw. Strangely enough, that's happened before to the Royals this season. On Blake Wood's birthday (Aug. 8), he yielded a walk-off homer on the first pitch.
14

72

89

76.2

79.3

79.0

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Esmil Rogers was once a promising prospect with a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking pitch that helped him post a 3.46 SIERA last year. He’s been almost impossibly bad in September, though, walking 14 batters and serving up eight homers in 19.1 innings, en route to a 10.71 ERA.
15

79

82

74.9

79.9

79.1

.486

.506

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At least Kenny Williams had the decency to ship Ozzie Guillen out of Chicago with dignity. All bench coach Joey Cora got was a text message: U GTG, LOL.
16

72

89

72.2

80.0

79.3

.471

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Javier Vazquez pitched the same number of innings (96.1) before the All-Star Break as after, but the contrast couldn’t be starker. During the first half, Vazquez issued 34 walks, fanned just 66 batters, and gave up 14 homers. During the second half, he walked only 16, whiffed 96, and halved his gopherballs.
17

78

82

81.8

82.2

81.3

.505

.485

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bronson Arroyo came up one inning shy of his stated goal of pitching 200 innings for the seventh straight season. They sure were eventful innings; Arroyo gave up 46 homers this season, two shy of the NL record and four shy of the major league record.
18

86

75

79.9

83.1

82.4

.515

.495

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After a dazzling nine strikeout, zero walk performance on Tuesday, Madison Bumgarner finished his season with a 4.15 K/BB ratio. Here’s a list of the other Giants who have accomplished that feat in the organization’s history: Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Christy Mathewson, and Jason Schmidt.
19

86

75

84.6

83.3

82.9

.523

.543

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.3%

To rub salt in the wounds, Mike Napoli homered twice on Tuesday. The Angels dealt Napoli in the offseason, only to watch him post a 1.010 OPS, the best of his career. None of Napoli's three main replacements behind the plate have an average above .210 or more than six homers.
20

94

67

88.2

83.4

83.3

.542

.522

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With two outs in the bottom of the 10th, the Diamondbacks trailed by five runs and had nobody on base. The next five batters got on base, and the sixth, Ryan Roberts, hit a walk-off grand slam. Roberts rounded the bases pumping his fists like manager Kirk Gibson did in the 1988 World Series. Baseball can't get much better.
21

81

79

83.5

84.6

84.0

.520

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Kemp was eliminated from the batting title and the Triple Crown but could still join the 40/40 club if he belts two homers tonight. Hey, it's possible; Prince Fielder hit three on Tuesday to tie Kemp for the NL home run lead.
22

89

72

84.8

84.6

83.5

.531

.511

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Braves have lost each of Derek Lowe’s last five starts, and they have been outscored 36-6 in those contests. How Lowe can you go?
23

89

72

87.0

88.2

87.0

.545

.525

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Down 5-0 to the Astros with their season on the line, the Cardinals had to be a bit nervous, but they surged back with a five-run fourth and used a four-run seventh to pull even with the Braves, who lost on Tuesday. Chris Carpenter takes the ball tonight against Brett Myers.
24

95

66

89.2

92.2

91.3

.571

.551

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Prince Fielder crushed the first of his three homers a whopping 452 feet in the third inning. Think that’s impressive? Well, Rickie Weeks stepped into the box right after him and sent one 470 feet off the facing of the luxury suites in left field.
25

94

67

88.2

92.6

91.0

.568

.588

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Here's how the Tigers pulled away from the rest of the Al Central: they won their last fifteen games against the second-place Indians and third-place White Sox.
26

90

71

90.8

92.7

93.8

.570

.590

0.0%

70.2%

70.2%

25.1%

55.0%

When the Rays turned a 5-4-3 triple play to get out of a dire situation in the sixth inning, it felt like they were destined to win a game they had no business winning up until that point. Sure enough, Matt Joyce drilled a three-run shot in the seventh off old pal Rafael Soriano, helping Tampa keep pace with Boston.
27

97

64

101.5

93.7

93.7

.599

.618

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rafael Soriano handed out two free passes, then provided Matt Joyce with a fastball fit for the Home Run Derby before notching three outs to end the inning. It almost makes you think the Rays planted him just for that purpose. Almost.
28

90

71

93.9

98.4

98.0

.591

.610

0.0%

29.8%

29.8%

-25.1%

-53.1%

Perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek getting hurt was the best thing that could’ve happened to the Red Sox. Ryan Lavarnway stepped right in at catcher and cranked two crucial homers on Tuesday.
29

101

60

101.6

99.8

98.7

.623

.604

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Finally, a scoreless inning for Antonio Bastardo. The last time he pulled that off was on September 7th, and the Phillies badly need their lefty setup man to get back on track for the playoffs.
30

95

66

98.0

103.1

103.4

.620

.639

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.4%

With a stolen base on Tuesday, Ian Kinsler joined the 30/30 club for the second time in his career. It certainly wasn't easy; Kinsler hit 11 home runs in September. He's just the 12th player in major league history to have more than one 30/30 season.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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