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Prospectus Hit List for September 27



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 26 Hit List for September 28
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Rays pull even with the collapsing Red Sox thanks to a Jacoby Ellsbury miscue and a homering Robert Andino

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

94

66

96.8

101.8

101.9

.617

.635

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.7%

C.J. Wilson didn't pitch much on Monday, but he finishes with a 2.94 ERA in 223 1/3 innings pitched. That's the lowest ERA for the Rangers since Nolan Ryan's 2.91 in 1991.
2

100

60

100.4

98.8

97.6

.620

.601

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It looks like the Phillies have flipped the switch after losing eight straight heading into Sunday's game against the Mets. With their regular lineup in place, the Phillies have looked back in form in back-to-back victories.
3

89

71

93.3

97.9

97.5

.590

.609

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-89.8%

-85.8%

If Jacoby Ellsbury became the MVP by hitting that three-run homer in the 14th inning on Sunday, did he cede it right back to the pool by costing the Red Sox three runs when he dropped Robert Andino's flyball as he crashed into the wall on Monday?
4

97

63

101.2

93.6

93.6

.602

.621

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Russell Martin jokingly asked home plate umpire Paul Schrieber if he stretched before the game, because his zone seemed tight in the fifth inning. Schrieber didn't think it was funny, so he gave Martin the heave-ho. To recap, things that get you ejected from MLB games: arguing balls and strikes, throwing bases, kicking dirt on umpires, and—apparently—making innocent jokes.
5

89

71

90.1

91.7

92.7

.568

.588

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-9.8%

-13.7%

Believe it or not, they've done it; the Rays have come all the way back to tie the Red Sox. And with Jeremy Hellickson and David Price starting against the Yankees' B-listers tonight and on Wednesday, you've got to like their chances of pulling it off.
6

94

66

88.4

91.1

90.2

.568

.549

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

Shaun Marcum has allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. He's also had more walks than strikeouts in two of those four—a highly uncharacteristic lull for the normally pinpoint righty.
7

93

67

87.4

91.8

90.2

.566

.586

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Are Justin Verlander and Doug Fister the next coming of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling? Maybe not, but since August 16, the Tigers' duo has gone 14-0 with a 1.61 ERA. Fister, who struck out nine and allowed no runs in eight innings on Monday, is an absurd 7-0 with a 0.65 ERA in his last eight outings.
8

88

72

85.8

87.0

85.9

.542

.522

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-28.3%

-16.9%

The Cardinals were unable to get past the Astros on Monday largely because of two Houston bunts in the bottom of the 10th inning. In short, the Cards got La Russa'd.
9

89

71

85.0

84.7

83.6

.535

.515

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-71.7%

-79.8%

The Braves remain one game up on the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race, but they'll face Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels to finish the season. For a team that's scored just three runs in the last three games, that's a scary proposition.
10

81

78

83.1

84.1

83.5

.522

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Kemp started his night off with a three-run homer that jumped him right back into triple crown contention, but three hitless at-bats later, he's 10 points behind in batting average with only two games to play.
11

86

74

84.9

83.8

83.5

.528

.548

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-1.2%

The Angels were officially eliminated from the playoff race after losing to the Rangers on Monday. The club's starting pitching was solid all season long, but the bats just weren't enough to keep the Angels afloat.
12

93

67

87.6

82.8

82.8

.541

.521

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.6%

Dan Hudson has lost each of his last three starts: two against the Dodgers and one against the Pirates. The D'Backs need Hudson to get back on track if they hope to advance past the Division Series.
13

85

75

78.5

81.7

81.0

.510

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.9%

Ryan Vogelsong threw seven innings of shutout ball in his final start of the season, earning a nice ovation as he walked off the field to cap his improbable comeback campaign.
14

78

82

81.8

81.9

80.9

.504

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Things have not gone quite like top prospect Devin Mesoraco planned in his audition for the Reds' catching gig next year. He's triple-slashing just .186/.239/.395 in 43 at-bats.
15

72

88

76.4

79.6

79.4

.480

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sergio Romo had not allowed a run since June 29th until the Rockies got to him in the eighth inning. Mark Ellis capped a three-hit rally with an RBI single.
16

78

82

74.3

79.4

78.7

.485

.505

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ozzie Guillen's departure from Chicago with a year left on his contract could lead to compensation for the White Sox. The same thing happened in 2002, when Seattle essentially got Randy Winn for Lou Pinella. Nobody will ever replace Guillen's soundbites.
17

71

89

71.6

79.1

78.5

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins probably wished they had the old Leo Nunez back on Monday. Edward Mujica yielded a three-run blast in the ninth inning, and the Marlins got off to a rough start in their final series in Sun Life Stadium.
18

80

80

78.2

76.1

78.5

.489

.509

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Blue Jays need to win their final two games to finish with a winning season for the fifth time in the last six years. Average ranking in the AL East: 3.5. Is there a team in a more cruel division?
19

71

89

77.1

77.0

77.8

.473

.493

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Melky Cabrera notched his 200th and 201st hit on Monday, becoming the first Royals player in 11 years to top 200 hits; Johnny Damon and Mike Sweeney both did it in 2000. With Cabrera, Alex Gordon, and Jeff Francoeur having solid seasons, the Royals' outfield is primed for a solid 2012.
20

76

84

77.3

77.3

77.8

.482

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Reyes went 3-for-4, surging back into a tie with Ryan Braun at .334 in the race for the NL batting title. In doing so, he likely put the kibosh on Matt Kemp's triple crown hopes.
21

79

80

77.2

77.3

77.8

.489

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Michael Morse's three-run homer in the top of the ninth inning secured the Nationals third place in the NL East—their highest ranking since the franchise moved to Washington in 2004.
22

72

88

75.2

73.9

75.2

.463

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Athletics used just 10 players in Monday's loss to the Mariners—their nine starters and Brandon McCarthy, who gave up four runs in a complete game. The game had all the makings of one in a season-ending series between two bad teams. The Mariners used just 11 players and the game lasted 2:13.
23

80

80

74.6

73.4

73.9

.472

.492

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Indians and Tigers both made deals at the deadline to acquire starting pitchers. The Tigers got Doug Fister (0.65 ERA in his last eight starts). The Indians got Ubaldo Jimenez (4.62 ERA, 1.38 WHIP with Cleveland). Poor Cleveland.
24

70

90

77.5

72.3

72.1

.456

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mat Latos showed some remarkable consistency in September. He made five starts this month and walked one batter while striking out either eight or nine in each.
25

67

93

67.2

68.7

70.1

.426

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Felix Hernandez might be rubbing off on the other Mariners pitchers. Jason Vargas recently added a turn to his windup, something he learned from King Felix. Since adding the move, Vargas is 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA. Too bad Felix isn't a good hitter too.
26

70

90

69.5

69.3

68.5

.433

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs went 2-for-29 with 11 strikeouts. You could insert the joke about most pitchers being embarrassed about that line, except Chicago's starter, Casey Coleman, tripled to break up Mat Latos's no-hitter in the sixth inning.
27

68

92

65.0

62.6

63.8

.405

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After his three-run double off Jonathan Papelbon last week and now his three-run inside-the-park homer off Josh Beckett on Monday, Robert Andino is fast becoming enemy No. 1 in Boston. Bucky bleeping Dent, Aaron bleeping Boone, and Robert bleeping Andino.
28

72

88

69.3

63.5

62.4

.418

.398

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There are some feats in sports that seem impossible until they are accomplished. The Miracle on Ice, Michael Jordan's 'Flu Game,' and Usain Bolt's sprinting records come to mind. After last night, you can add walking Yuniesky Betancourt with the bases loaded to that list. Take a bow, Chris Leroux.
29

56

104

62.4

61.7

62.0

.378

.360

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mark Melancon's wife was scheduled to be induced into labor after Monday's game against the Cardinals. Is getting a win against a surging team enough of an excuse for being late? Probably.
30

61

99

60.3

54.9

55.3

.362

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Kevin Slowey started eight games for the Twins this season. He lost all of them. That hasn't happened since 1951 when Lou Sleater lost all eight of his starts with the St. Louis Browns. Oddly enough, Slowey didn't walk anybody in his last five starts.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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