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Prospectus Hit List for September 23



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 22 Hit List for September 26
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Matt Moore impresses in his first major league start; Rays fans salivate at his 2012 prospects

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

60

95

58.7

52.5

53.1

.362

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Drew Butera's single in the fifth inning was the first hit by a Twins catcher since Sept. 9—a stretch of 27 at-bats. And the Twins won!
2

66

90

63.1

61.2

62.2

.405

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Here's Adam Jones, explaining his throw to gun down Miguel Cabrera at the plate in the second inning:
3

54

102

61.1

61.2

61.4

.381

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

By the eighth inning, you could've counted the number of Astro fans still in the ballpark. That's what happens when you're 54-102.
4

69

87

67.0

61.7

60.5

.414

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Pirates can go at least 4-2 over their last six games, they'll finish with fewer than 90 losses for the first time since 2004.
5

66

90

66.4

68.3

69.2

.432

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Blake Beaven has gone 24 1/3 innings without walking a batter: the sixth-longest streak in club history. It's not like he's serving up meatballs either; he sports a 3.82 ERA since his promotion in early July.
6

69

87

67.6

68.3

67.5

.437

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since Aug. 1, Jeff Samardzija has a 1.31 ERA, 26 strikeouts, and 10 walks in 27 1/3 innings. Maybe baseball was the right choice.
7

68

88

75.6

69.5

69.1

.452

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Despite getting knocked around by the rest of the league, Friday starter Wade LeBlanc has somehow kept Matt Kemp to two hits in 13 at-bats in their past meetings. He'll be the first man to stand in the way of Kemp's Triple Crown chase.
8

70

86

73.3

72.2

73.6

.463

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jemile Weeks finally hit one over the fence in his 379th career at-bat. His brother Rickie needed 76 at-bats before he hit his first homer. Jemile has a long way to go to catch his bro; Rickie sits at 108 homers for his career.
9

77

78

72.9

72.6

73.1

.477

.497

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Kosuke Fukudome and Jason Kipnis hit back-to-back homers leading off the game for Cleveland, the first time the Indians have pulled that off since May 23, 2007. Don't expect Fukudome to stick in Cleveland for long, though; he told reporters after the game, 'I like it here, but there are a lot of bugs.'
10

68

88

73.9

74.0

74.7

.466

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Where sabermetrics and scouting collide: Eric Hosmer's defense. His FRAA is -6.4, but scouts say he has the potential to be a good defensive first basemen. He certainly looks the part of a solid defensive first baseman.
11

76

79

74.6

74.5

74.9

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The top two hitters in Washington's order, Ian Desmond and Roger Bernadina, combined for as many hits (4) as all of the Phillies had.
12

79

77

76.6

74.9

77.2

.493

.513

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Blue Jays are 11-0 in extra-inning games at home. They are the only team ever to win 10 or more extra-inning games at home without a loss. Don't leave the Rogers Centre early.
13

74

82

75.5

75.7

76.1

.483

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

For most of Thursday's game, it seemed like the Mets just hate the Braves so much that they were going to hand the Cardinals a win. Then, someone brought out a time machine, shot everyone back to 1969, and produced a Miracle.
14

70

86

73.7

76.4

76.2

.475

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Alex White has really struggled to close the season, yielding four or more earned runs in six games since joining the Rockies. He struck out six and walked nobody on Thursday but still got hit for five runs.
15

71

85

70.8

77.9

77.2

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Most Marlins just took Thursday off. Leo Nunez is taking the rest of the season off to figure out if he's actually Leo Nunez and whether he's actually 28 years old.
16

76

80

73.1

77.9

77.4

.488

.508

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since coming back from the DL on September 5th, Phil Humber has allowed this many earned runs in his starts: 0, 2, 5, 7. Good thing the season is almost over, because this is going south faster than Chicago college students on spring break.
17

90

66

83.8

79.6

79.5

.534

.514

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.2%

0.4%

When leading after eight innings, the Diamondbacks are 81-0. For a bullpen that had a 5.82 ERA in 2010, that's pretty dang impressive.
18

76

80

79.8

79.9

79.1

.504

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brandon Phillips must enjoy the leadoff spot. Since moving there on Aug. 17, Phillips is batting .343. He has six homers in his last 10 games.
19

84

72

78.5

80.5

79.8

.517

.497

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

-1.2%

-0.3%

Madison Bumgarner's stuff was harder to miss in L.A. last night than the U.S. Bank Tower. He was touched up for nine hits and four runs in four innings, falling to 12-13 despite a 3.32 ERA.
20

85

71

83.1

82.0

81.6

.532

.551

0.2%

2.0%

2.2%

-4.2%

-3.9%

The Angels' postseason chances took a hit on Friday, but they get Oakland at home and then a Rangers team that will probably have locked up the AL West. Winning out certainly isn't impossible.
21

78

77

80.5

82.2

81.8

.520

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Kemp had four hits—three doubles and a homer—and drove in two more runs. He's four batting average points behind Ryan Braun, a homer shy of Albert Pujols, and already owns the RBI lead. Triple Crown, anyone?
22

88

68

83.6

83.5

82.5

.541

.521

0.0%

84.5%

84.5%

11.8%

-11.5%

The Braves couldn't touch Javier Vazquez on Wednesday. Now they're supposed to beat Stephen Strasburg? Yikes.
23

86

70

84.0

84.3

83.3

.541

.521

0.1%

15.0%

15.0%

-10.9%

10.8%

Tony La Russa was merely shuffling relievers to get what he thought were favorable matchups, but he might as well have been sending his guys unarmed into a battlefield. Four runs and three walks for Jason Motte, a loss for Mark Rzepczynski, and a blown save for Fernando Salas. What a disaster.
24

90

66

83.6

87.9

86.4

.557

.577

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

What's more important: going for home-field advantage in the ALDS or setting up your rotation? Jim Leyland went with the latter, sending prospect Jacob Turner to the hill on Thursday. Turner hadn't pitched in three weeks.
25

86

70

87.4

88.5

89.4

.563

.583

0.0%

12.5%

12.5%

1.5%

8.6%

Matt Moore: five innings, 11 strikeouts in his first career start. Sure, it was against the Yankees' B-team, with most of the players looking like they were still hung-over, but Moore has the most electric stuff of any prospect since Stephen Strasburg. Is it too soon to name him the 2012 AL Rookie of the Year now?
26

91

65

85.6

88.7

87.9

.566

.546

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.1%

0.7%

Clinching the NL Central is the Brewers short-term goal, but with a 52-23 record at Miller Park, they should also focus on securing home-field advantage for the NLDS. They sit one game ahead of the Diamondbacks heading into Friday's games.
27

95

61

98.6

92.0

91.8

.605

.624

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Dellin Betances fired 27 pitches in his MLB debut but only found the strike zone with seven of them, becoming the first pitcher to walk at least four batters and not record three outs in his first outing since fellow Yankee Kevin Whelan did it in June. To find the previous time that happened, you'd have to go all the way back to the Royals' Miguel Asencio on April 6, 2002.
28

88

68

92.5

95.9

95.3

.595

.615

0.0%

85.5%

85.5%

2.7%

-9.6%

It was a sleepless night in Boston as the Red Sox not only watched another half-game tick off their Wild Card lead but also had nightmares about the next six seasons of Matt Moore mowing them down.
29

98

58

98.0

96.1

94.9

.620

.601

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Ruiz went 3-for-4. The rest of the Phillies? They were 1-for-27. Someone should probably tell Charlie Manuel's squad that it's OK to win games after clinching a playoff spot.
30

90

66

93.5

98.2

98.6

.609

.628

99.8%

0.0%

99.8%

-0.0%

4.8%

The Rangers couldn't top the Athletics on Thursday, but they certainly dominated the season series. Their 13 wins against the Athletics this season tied a club record for wins against one team in a season.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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