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Prospectus Hit List for September 20



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 19 Hit List for September 21
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Mariano Rivera makes history with his record-breaking 602nd career save

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

64

82.7

86.7

85.3

.561

.581

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Tigers get the Royals, the Orioles, and the Indians to end their season as they battle for home-field advantage. The competition will improve significantly in about two weeks.
2

98

54

97.2

95.4

94.5

.633

.615

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Where, oh where, have the Phillies' bats gone? They've scored three runs or less in 10 of their last 11 games.
3

90

64

84.8

88.1

87.2

.568

.549

99.8%

0.1%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.8%

The Brewers made Casey Coleman—who entered with a 7.06 ERA—look like Sandy Koufax on Monday. Since the D'Backs beat the Pirates, Milwaukee now has just a one game edge over Arizona to avoid the Phillies in the NLDS.
4

89

65

82.7

79.1

79.0

.535

.516

99.4%

0.1%

99.4%

0.8%

-0.3%

Ian Kennedy earned the all-important 20th win of his campaign in emphatic fashion. One hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts over eight shutout innings. His pitching schedule is already lined up for Game 1 of the NLDS.
5

88

65

91.4

95.4

95.7

.606

.625

99.2%

0.1%

99.3%

0.9%

6.3%

Adrian Beltre is on a tear for the Rangers, hitting seven home runs in his last eight games. And the Athletics know that pretty well—Beltre went yard three times in the final two games of the last Rangers-Athletics series from September 10-11.
6

92

60

96.4

90.6

90.3

.607

.626

99.2%

0.7%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

For his 602nd save and the all-time record, Mariano Rivera threw 13 pitchers, 12 of them cutters. He broke a bat with his second-to-last pitch of the outing, finished with a strike out, and retired the side in order. It only feels right that the record came that way.
7

83

70

80.7

80.0

79.8

.528

.548

0.8%

0.5%

1.2%

-1.3%

-5.9%

The Angels lost for just the 40th time this season with Vernon Wells in the lineup. They are 11-30 when he sits on the bench. Yes, the Angels fare better when one of the worst position players in the junior circuit is on the field for them. I'm as confused as you are.
8

88

66

91.8

95.2

94.6

.600

.619

0.7%

85.1%

85.8%

-2.3%

-10.2%

The Red Sox scored 18 runs in the nightcap, including 11 in the first three innings. John Lackey still couldn't stick around long enough to earn a win. Perhaps even more remarkably, Jason Varitek—amid that 18-run outburst—managed to take home a golden sombrero.
9

83

70

77.5

79.8

79.1

.522

.502

0.6%

3.3%

3.9%

-0.2%

3.2%

If the Giants are going to run their winning streak to nine games, they'll have to beat Clayton Kershaw. Tuesday's game will mark the fourth matchup of the season between Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.
10

84

69

82.2

81.9

80.9

.538

.518

0.2%

16.7%

16.9%

10.4%

11.7%

Facing Roy Halladay, the Cardinals plated two runs in the first and held off the Phillies late to move within two and a half games of the Braves. This is getting verrrry interesting.
11

85

67

85.6

85.9

86.7

.565

.584

0.0%

13.6%

13.7%

2.7%

9.7%

Joe Maddon's squad got to sit back and watch as the Red Sox dropped another game in the loss column. Just one game separates the two teams in that department now.
12

70

83

73.0

75.2

75.1

.479

.459

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No Tulowitzki, no Helton, no Gonzalez... it's no wonder that the Rockies went nearly six innings without a hit. Their lineup looked like an above-average AAA team.
13

75

76

70.3

70.0

70.4

.473

.493

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Asdrubal Cabrera had himself quite a game on Monday. The good: he picked up a single, a double, a homer and three RBIs. The bad: he was picked off, caught stealing, and grounded into a double play in the one at-bat he didn't get a hit. And the Indians gave up 12 runs to the Mariners.
14

74

80

78.3

78.4

77.8

.501

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Reds must just want their season to end. They've struck out 44 times in their last four games. Strikeouts don't take too long.
15

63

90

61.1

59.2

60.1

.398

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If someone has a good explanation for Brian Matusz's faceplant, they'd better share it soon. The young lefty had six more runs, two more walks, and another homer added to his season total in just 1.2 innings, bumping his ERA to 10.68. He has an almost unfathomable 7.60 FIP.
16

68

86

66.4

66.8

66.0

.434

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Geovany Soto's platoon split is one of the harshest among players with at least 400 at-bats this season. He is hitting just .206/.277/.367 with 99 strikeouts in 311 AB against righties, while mauling southpaws to the tune of a .284/.404/.558 triple-slash.
17

87

67

82.6

82.4

81.4

.541

.521

0.0%

79.9%

79.9%

-10.9%

-15.4%

Craig Kimbrel blew a few saves during the summer, but he hadn't taken the loss in a game since May 18th. After a phenomenal season, Kimbrel and setup man Jonny Venters are entitled to a few blips, but they couldn't come at a worse time for the Braves.
18

74

78

71.6

76.5

76.2

.491

.511

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Don't think too many people in Chicago will be skipping work to catch the afternoon game of the White Sox-Indians doubleheader on Tuesday.
19

70

84

69.8

77.1

76.3

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Some Miami Dolphins fan is going to show up to their next home game and wonder, what the heck is this baseball doing in my nosebleed seat? If he sees the replay of Mike Stanton's home run from last night, it just might convince him to come watch the Marlins.
20

53

100

59.7

60.2

60.4

.381

.363

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros might finally be getting the J.A. Happ they expected when they traded Roy Oswalt for him. Happ is sporting a nifty 2.40 ERA in five starts since being recalled from the minors.
21

78

75

75.9

73.8

76.2

.497

.517

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pop quiz: Name the AL pitcher with the most wins and zero losses this season. If you guessed Casey Janssen (6-0), you're both right and probably need better things to do with your life.
22

64

89

64.8

66.6

67.5

.429

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Hold on a second... the Mariners scored 12 runs in seven innings? Were they using aluminum bats?
23

66

88

74.0

68.2

67.8

.448

.428

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In their 43 years of existence, the Padres have never thrown a no-hitter. Cory Luebke took one into the sixth inning on Monday, but a Mark Ellis homer ended the only drama left in a meaningless September baseball game.
24

68

86

66.1

60.0

59.0

.411

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There's no shame in giving up the only run of your outing on a solo shot by Justin Upton. Unfortunately for Jeff Karstens, his teammates couldn't get him off the hook.
25

69

84

72.4

72.0

73.4

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

David DeJesus's .237 batting average is 57 points below his career average. His .148 average (and .167 slugging percentage!) in June certainly didn't help matters.
26

73

80

74.4

75.0

75.4

.487

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Johan Santana had a chance to make a difference in the playoffs, and he chose not to take it. Oh, sure, it was only pitching for the Class-A Savannah Sand Gnats in the South Atlantic League championship series, but that's as close to the postseason as the Mets are going to come this year.
27

59

93

57.4

51.1

51.8

.361

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With his 32nd steal this season, Ben Revere sets a Twins rookie record; Luis Rivas stole 31 for the Twins 10 years ago. The celebration of this milestone wasn't quite as fervent as the other one that happened in Yankee Stadium.
28

76

76

78.5

80.0

79.4

.516

.496

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you are already looking ahead to the offseason, one of this winter's most intriguing cases will be former Dodger closer Jonathan Broxton. The 27-year-old underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow on Tuesday and is set to be a free agent for the first time.
29

67

87

72.4

72.9

73.6

.464

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since the All-Star Break, Luke Hochevar has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 79.1 IP. He may not be an ace like the Royals hoped when they took him with the first overall pick, but he still could be a productive starter.
30

72

79

71.4

71.2

71.4

.473

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals are 3-0 in rookie Tom Milone's first three starts, but two of those were against the Mets and the other was against the Astros. Milone will get his first true test in the second game of today's twinbill with the Phillies.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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