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Prospectus Hit List for September 19



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 16 Hit List for September 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The AL Wild Card racing is heating up as the Rays are now just two back of the Sox.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

72

79

71.4

71.2

71.4

.473

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Chien-Ming Wang can be anything close to the pitcher that won 19 games in two different seasons for the Yankees, the Nationals found a diamond in the rough.
2

77

75

75.3

73.1

75.4

.495

.515

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Entering Sunday's game, Adam Lind had hit just two homers over the past month. Naturally, he went deep in each of his first two at-bats, giving a dominant Brandon Morrow all the support he needed.
3

88

65

91.4

95.5

95.7

.606

.625

98.3%

0.1%

98.5%

-0.0%

8.0%

Matt Harrison and Felix Hernandez have become familiar foes during their time in the AL West, locking horns four times. The lefty has certainly stepped up his game in those contests, surrendering just three earned runs in 27 innings and usurping King Felix in three of them.
4

85

67

85.6

85.9

86.7

.565

.584

0.0%

10.9%

10.9%

6.4%

8.2%

If the Rays do pull off a miracle comeback and sneak into the playoffs, they won't be a team anyone wants to face. Despite squaring off with the Rangers and Red Sox in 11 of their 17 games this month, Rays pitchers have combined for a terrific 3.55 ERA.
5

83

69

81.6

81.4

80.4

.537

.517

0.1%

6.4%

6.5%

3.1%

0.3%

The Cardinals have won nine of 11 and sit three and a half games back of the NL Wild Card-leading Braves. If guys like Allen Craig are hitting a pair of home runs, it just might be the Cardinals' time.
6

83

70

77.5

79.8

79.1

.522

.502

1.6%

2.6%

4.2%

1.1%

3.6%

After Pablo Sandoval accomplished the feat on Sunday, three of the past four National League players to hit two homers in the same inning have been San Francisco Giants in the post-Barry Bonds era. Go figure.
7

63

89

63.5

65.7

66.7

.426

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners scored as many runs on Sunday as the Seahawks scored points. In virtually any other city, that would be very good news. In Seattle, not so much.
8

65

88

72.8

66.8

66.7

.443

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Anthony Bass has pitched 38.1 innings for San Diego. He doesn't miss many bats (21 strikeouts), doesn't have great control (18 walks), and doesn't generate an extraordinary amount of groundballs (47.1 percent). Yet, he has a 1.88 ERA.
9

68

85

65.8

60.0

58.9

.413

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It took the Pirates 218 pitches to escape Sunday's 15-1 defeat. No one pitcher lasted more than two innings. Yes, it was the Pirates' pitching that kept them in the NL Central race through July.
10

98

53

96.8

94.8

93.9

.635

.616

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Philadelphia has scored three or fewer runs in nine of its last ten games. The pitching is fantastic, but the Phillies will create a lot of drama if they can't put up more than a couple runs in October games.
11

69

84

72.4

72.0

73.4

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The A's have been shut out in five of Guillermo Moscoso's starts this season, and he had to pitch against Justin Verlander on Sunday. Moscoso shouldn't buy any lottery tickets in the near future.
12

73

80

74.4

75.0

75.4

.487

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mets won't be playing baseball much longer, but they will have an effect on who snags the NL Wild Card slot. After taking two of three from the Braves this weekend, the Mets have a three-game set with the Cardinals.
13

91

60

95.7

89.8

89.5

.606

.625

97.5%

2.5%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

In five starts against the Blue Jays, Bartolo Colon has a brutal 7.99 ERA. In 19 starts against the rest of the league, he's sitting pretty at 3.06. Good thing Colon won't have to face Toronto in the playoffs.
14

59

92

57.1

50.9

51.4

.362

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Only one opening day starter cracked the starting lineup in Sunday's sweep-clinching loss to the Indians. That's when you know that it's just about time to hang it up.
15

90

63

84.7

87.7

86.9

.571

.551

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.1%

0.8%

Anyone who sensed a collapse coming in Milwaukee when the Brewers dropped five straight can safely stop worrying. Ron Roenicke's team was all business over the weekend, pinning 24 runs on the Reds while allowing just five.
16

76

76

78.5

80.0

79.4

.516

.496

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Dodgers stranded 14 runners on Fan Appreciation Day on Sunday... but still put up 15 runs and had an 11-0 lead after the third inning. The Dodgers must really love their fans.
17

67

87

72.4

72.9

73.6

.464

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With Joakim Soria out with a strained hamstring, Greg Holland has taken the closer's job. He has allowed just one of 31 inherited baserunners to score, the best rate in the Majors for pitcher who have inherited 20 or more runners.
18

52

100

59.1

59.6

59.7

.379

.360

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Over the past three weeks, the Astros have been playing baseball while Clint Barmes has been playing double-or-nothing. Of the veteran infielder's last 18 games, nine have been two-hit efforts while the other nine have been 0-fers.
19

69

84

69.2

76.2

75.4

.473

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins played 11 games in 10 days in four different cities. It was their first four-city voyage since June 2005. Now they'll return home to play in front of nobody.
20

89

64

82.7

86.7

85.3

.561

.581

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Verlander is the first pitcher to win 12 straight starts since Minnesota's Johan Santana did it in 2004. He's had a decent season.
21

70

82

73.1

75.4

75.2

.483

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In Saturday's game, the second big league start of his career, Drew Pomeranz allowed his first run. Who drove it in? None other than opposing pitcher Eric Surkamp, who collected his first career hit and RBI.
22

75

75

70.5

69.8

70.2

.476

.496

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jim Thome picked up an RBI infield single on Sunday. Read that again and try not to laugh.
23

74

79

77.9

78.1

77.6

.503

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Maloney's outing on Sunday started thusly: double, home run, single, home run, double. Still unimpressed? What if I told you that first home run was hit by noted slugger Carlos Gomez?
24

67

86

65.6

66.2

65.4

.432

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With Carlos Marmol unavailable on Saturday, Mike Quade turned to Sean Marshall with a one-run lead in the ninth. Marshall did his best Marmol imitation—he converted the save but not before putting three runners on base.
25

74

78

71.6

76.5

76.2

.491

.511

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

On Aug. 12, A.J. Pierzynski broke his left wrist after being hit by a pitch by the Royals' Bruce Chen. Pierzynski got his revenge on Chen and the Royals on Sunday, picking up his fourth career multi-homer game and third in Kauffman Stadium.
26

87

65

90.2

93.6

93.0

.598

.618

2.5%

85.7%

88.1%

-7.1%

-9.0%

All the Red Sox needed to stop looking in their rear view mirrors was to notch a split with the Rays at Fenway. But they failed that mission, and now—with the Wild Card lead down to two—it is officially time to push the panic button.
27

62

89

60.8

58.7

59.5

.399

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Vladimir Guerrero has found the elusive fountain of youth. He's 22 for his last 49 and with his 449th homer on Sunday, moving into a tie with Jeff Bagwell for 35th on the all-time home run list.
28

87

66

82.2

82.4

81.4

.544

.524

0.0%

90.8%

90.8%

-4.8%

-3.6%

Jonny Venters walked three in his 81st appearance, the most in the major leagues. He insists that he isn't bothered by fatigue, but his 1.77 WHIP and 3.68 ERA in September are his season highs for any month.
29

88

65

82.1

78.2

78.2

.534

.514

98.4%

0.2%

98.6%

0.6%

-1.1%

If they can take care of business against the Pirates, Giants, and Dodgers while picking up two games on the Brewers, the D'backs may not have to play a road game in the next two weeks.
30

83

69

80.3

79.8

79.6

.531

.551

1.7%

0.8%

2.5%

0.7%

-7.2%

Jered Weaver's Sunday start on three days rest went a lot better this time around. After giving up seven ER against the Rangers on Aug. 28, Weaver gave up just two to the Orioles on Sunday. The Angels are four games back of the Red Sox and four and a half behind the Rangers.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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