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Prospectus Hit List for September 14



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 13 Hit List for September 15
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

An 11 K performance for A.J. Burnett and Mo's 600th save keep the Yankees atop the Hit List.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

94

51

93.1

92.0

91.1

.638

.620

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cole Hamels is 0-3 in his last five starts against the hapless Astros. That has to be absolutely maddening. Punch-a-wall maddening.
2

86

62

80.3

83.8

82.4

.562

.581

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

1.7%

Justin Verlander was Justin Verlander and picked up his 23rd win of the season on Tuesday. He became the sixth pitcher to throw a no-hitter and win at least 23 games in a season. The last person to do it? Sandy Koufax in 1965.
3

87

62

80.2

76.1

76.1

.536

.516

99.9%

0.0%

99.9%

0.1%

7.3%

Ian Kennedy's darkhorse bid for the NL Cy Young award took a hit last night when he coughed up four first-inning runs to the hapless Dodgers.
4

87

62

81.0

84.1

83.2

.563

.543

99.7%

0.1%

99.8%

0.7%

-0.2%

The Brewers showed last night why they could be a dangerous playoff team. Although Zack Greinke lasted just five innings, their bullpen'led by John Axford and K-Rod'shut down the Rockies for six until Ryan Braun sent a Matt Lindstrom fastball on its way to the Canadian border.
5

84

64

87.8

91.3

91.7

.599

.619

94.0%

0.0%

94.0%

1.0%

0.3%

Looking for a waiver wire pickup who could help you in the fantasy playoffs? David Murphy is a ridiculous 20-for-47 with four homers this month.
6

90

57

94.0

88.8

88.7

.615

.633

93.0%

7.0%

100.0%

0.1%

-0.0%

On a night when A.J. Burnett fanned 11 en route to his first quality start since June 29 and when Jesus Montero picked up his first career double, everything was overshadowed by save No. 600 for Mariano Rivera.
7

86

61

88.7

91.8

91.1

.608

.627

7.0%

91.1%

98.1%

2.1%

-1.9%

How do you stop a skid that has your town in widespread panic? By having the top two hitters in your lineup go 8-for-10 with three doubles, three homers, and eight RBIs. That's how.
8

81

67

78.0

77.3

77.1

.529

.549

6.0%

0.1%

6.1%

-1.1%

-0.2%

Vernon Wells, he of the .251 OBP, continues to get the starting nod over uber-prospect Mike Trout. Wells didn't take advantage of the start on Wednesday, going 0-for-5. Trout pinch ran and stole a base. You there, Mike Scioscia?
9

80

68

79.4

79.0

78.0

.535

.515

0.3%

4.2%

4.5%

-0.7%

3.6%

Albert Pujols made three errors on Tuesday, but Nick Punto's ninth-inning RBI propelled the Cardinals to a victory. Not a great fielding night for Albert'in his Gold Glove 2010 season, he made four errors all year. He has 14 this year.
10

78

70

72.4

74.8

74.5

.506

.486

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

-0.4%

-8.1%

Bruce Bochy used a whopping 22 players last night. Cactus League baseball in September, everyone.
11

82

65

82.5

83.4

83.8

.564

.584

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

-2.1%

1.8%

The Rays' season isn't over'not with a four-game series against Boston beginning on Thursday. But when last night's telecast panned to J.P Howell sobbing in the dugout after giving up a pivotal two-run homer to Matt Wieters, it sure seemed like their fate had been sealed.
12

59

88

58.4

56.4

57.2

.393

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One start after issuing a career high six walks, Alfredo Simon collected a career high nine strikeouts. If only Bud Selig would allow every Simon start to turn into a game of "Simon Says," maybe the latter would happen more often.
13

67

81

65.6

59.8

58.8

.424

.405

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Pirates' loss on Tuesday ensured a 19th straight non-winning season. At least they weren't 15 games out in May this time around.
14

63

86

71.1

65.8

65.7

.446

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Padres went 8-for-43 with 17 strikeouts. Most pitchers would be ashamed of that line.
15

61

87

61.4

64.2

65.1

.425

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you're going to trot Charlie Furbush out there every fifth day, you'd better be ready to score some runs. The Mariners have plated a grand total of eight runs in Furbush's last five starts. Predictably, he's 0-5.
16

72

73

68.2

67.7

68.1

.476

.496

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Justin Masterson has now exceeded last year's innings total by 25, and it might be time for the Indians to shut him down. The righty has allowed 15 runs on 23 hits and seven walks in his last 18 innings.
17

85

64

81.1

80.9

79.8

.548

.528

0.0%

95.5%

95.5%

0.3%

-2.6%

Chipper Jones, 39, said the Braves' pre-game meeting was
18

74

74

72.9

70.2

72.3

.489

.509

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Luis Perez's numbers against Boston: 11 innings, 25 hits, three homers, and a 14.73 ERA. Based on that, you'd think he should be a mopup man for an amateur softball team. Against everyone else, though? 51.1 innings, 47 hits, six homers, and a 3.16 ERA.
19

67

81

70.0

69.6

71.0

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How the Athletics play to end the season will certainly have an effect on the playoff race. After Wednesday's rubber game with the Angels, the A's head to Detroit, Texas, and then back home for another three-game set with the Angels.
20

71

77

71.9

72.9

73.3

.488

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In all their years as a franchise, the Mets have never had a batting champion. Jose Reyes's .333 average currently leads the NL. He's still on the Mets though, so something is bound to go wrong by the end of the season.
21

69

78

72.2

73.6

73.1

.490

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rafael Betancourt is a better pitcher than Matt Lindstrom. Ergo, Betancourt should pitch before Lindstrom in an extra-inning game. Anyone who can cram that notion into Jim Tracy's brain deserves a Nobel Prize.
22

72

76

76.7

77.1

76.5

.511

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

In his final start of the season, Mike Leake went eight innings and gave up a single run. He may not have needed the minor leagues, but with two September starts against the Cubs, he got a pretty good taste of minor league baseball to end his season.
23

67

80

66.4

72.8

72.1

.473

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins released 38-year-old Mike Cameron, opting to play younger players for the rest of the season. If this is the end of his career, his effortless glides through center field will always be remembered.
24

51

97

57.5

58.0

58.1

.379

.361

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Former Phillie J.A. Happ gave up just one run in six innings, helping the Astros take a home victory against the Phillies. Philadelphia's loss kept them from clinching a playoff birth, and Houston's win kept them from setting the club record in losses. Way to show them, J.A.!
25

63

86

68.6

69.0

69.8

.454

.474

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Alex Gordon hit his team-high 22nd homer to add to his single-season best. The Royals' single-season record for home runs is a mere 36, accomplished by Steve Balboni in 1985. That seems like an impossibly low single-season record.
26

72

75

73.6

74.9

74.3

.501

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

After watching Javy Guerra's meltdown in the 10th inning, every Dodgers fan was surely thinking,
27

65

83

63.7

64.2

63.7

.434

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The key to getting to Ryan Dempster may be jumping on him early. In his 31 starts this season, Dempster has allowed 30 runs. He's given up 20 in the fifth, 11 in the third, and single-digit numbers in all other innings.
28

59

88

56.2

49.3

50.1

.365

.384

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins are the bizarro Tigers, losing 18 of their last 22 and plummeting to the bottom of the AL Central.
29

73

74

70.1

75.6

75.5

.500

.520

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.6%

The White Sox are 5-for-45 with runners in scoring position over their last five games. So not only are they facing the red-hot Tigers, they're getting pretty unlucky too.
30

69

77

68.2

68.7

68.8

.470

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Danny Espinosa is one homer away from becoming just the third rookie second baseman in Major League history to hit 20 home runs in a season, joining Dan Uggla (27) and Alexei Ramirez (21).

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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