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Prospectus Hit List for September 13



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 12 Hit List for September 14
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

...In which Justin Verlander is mentioned twice.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

94

50

93.0

91.9

91.0

.642

.624

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Roy Oswalt's inability to miss bats is becoming a significant concern for the Phillies. Entering Monday's game, Oswalt had posted a career-worst 83.6 percent contact rate, and he fanned just two Astros in seven innings in the loss.
2

85

62

79.2

83.1

81.7

.559

.579

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

2.3%

The Tigers are on a 10-game winning streak, their longest since 1968. Justin Verlander pitches on Tuesday. Soak it up, Motor City. It may not get any better than this.
3

86

62

79.6

75.4

75.3

.534

.514

99.7%

0.0%

99.8%

0.0%

4.2%

Though swapping keystoners with the Blue Jays didn't seem to make sense from their perspective initially, the D'backs appear to have helped Aaron Hill recover his stroke. Hill is batting .325/.369/.464 with Arizona, while Kelly Johnson has just a ..215/.311/.385 triple-slash for Toronto.
4

86

62

80.4

83.5

82.7

.562

.542

99.5%

0.1%

99.6%

0.5%

-0.4%

The idle Brewers watched the D'backs draw even with them at 86-62. If Ron Roenicke's team wants to dodge the Phillies in the NLDS, it will need to do better than the 3.63 runs per game it has scored in September.
5

83

64

86.7

90.3

90.8

.597

.616

92.7%

0.0%

92.7%

2.2%

4.2%

Nelson Cruz is expected to be activated from the 15-day DL on Tuesday. He said he won't be 100 percent, but that just means he won't
6

89

57

93.3

88.3

88.3

.615

.633

89.4%

10.5%

99.9%

0.0%

-0.1%

If the Yankees have the bases loaded and Robinson Cano is due up, the pitcher had better run for his life. After a three-run double on Monday, Cano is batting .471 with a whopping 27 RBIs in 17 at-bats.
7

85

61

87.2

90.6

89.9

.604

.623

10.6%

85.7%

96.3%

-0.8%

-3.5%

Joey Gathright can jump over pitchers and cars, but can he make sure the Rays won't jump over the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card standings?
8

80

67

77.1

76.5

76.3

.527

.547

7.3%

0.1%

7.5%

-2.2%

-4.0%

The Angels' rookie hazing took place on Sunday, when Mike Trout was forced to leave the ballpark dressed as Lady Gaga. Perhaps Trout was still scarred by the experience a day later, as he picked up his first career hat trick.
9

79

68

78.7

78.8

77.8

.534

.515

0.5%

4.8%

5.3%

-0.9%

4.6%

The Cardinals weren't going to win their last 16 games, but coughing up a late two-run lead to the Pirates certainly doesn't leave a good taste in Tony La Russa's mouth. Chris Carpenter, who is rumored to have new two-year deal, takes the ball today.
10

77

70

71.7

74.1

73.8

.504

.484

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

0.3%

-4.2%

Eric Surkamp's stuff is harder to miss than the Eiffel Tower. According to Brooks Baseball, Padres hitters whiffed just once in 91 pitches on Monday.
11

73

73

70.1

75.3

75.3

.503

.523

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-2.0%

Since leading 8-1 against the Tigers on Sept. 3, the White Sox have been outscored 40-5 by Detroit. Should Ozzie even send his team on the field tomorrow against Justin Verlander?
12

84

64

79.9

79.8

78.7

.545

.525

0.0%

94.5%

94.5%

0.1%

-4.3%

The Braves had the perfect formula to end their skid: Beachy to Vizcaino to O'Flaherty to Venters to Kimbrel. They just weren't counting on needing Anthony Varvaro in the 12th inning.
13

69

77

71.8

73.2

72.7

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Drew Pomeranz tossed five scoreless innings in his MLB debut against the Reds on Sunday. If the Rockies don't shut him down, he'll make three more starts this season, two against the Giants and one against the Padres. In other words, he might finish his first stint in the big leagues without allowing a run.
14

72

72

68.4

67.8

68.1

.480

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

With the White Sox loss, the Indians move back into a tie for second place in the AL Central. September baseball in 2011, everyone!
15

71

76

76.1

76.3

75.7

.509

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They're holding vigils and praying in Cincinnati for the ball Juan Francisco hit in the second inning. The poor thing went 502 feet and cleared the right-field stands, yet it wasn't even the longest homer in the stadium's history (Adam Dunn, 535 feet).
16

65

82

63.4

64.1

63.6

.435

.416

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starlin Castro's line-drive stroke got him to the majors, but his underrated pop is now beginning to come through. The 21-year-old had two doubles and a homer on Monday, marking his first career game with three extra-base hits.
17

58

88

57.7

55.8

56.6

.391

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Orioles fell to 30 games under .500 for the third time this season. With series against the Angels, Red Sox, Tigers and Red Sox to finish the season, things probably aren't going to get much better soon.
18

67

79

66.5

72.8

72.1

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mike Stanton's hamstring is still preventing him from running, but it didn't stop him from beating the Braves with a go-ahead, pinch-hit single in the 12th inning.
19

50

97

56.7

57.1

57.3

.376

.357

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The top two hitters in Houston's lineup, Jordan Schafer and Angel Sanchez, went 0-for-9. The rest were a combined 12-for-26, and even Brett Myers got in on the fun with a 2-for-3 night.
20

74

73

73.6

70.5

72.5

.494

.514

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Blue Jays record has been .500 on 30 different days, the most in the Major Leagues. Team Average!
21

82

64

82.2

83.1

83.4

.566

.586

0.0%

3.6%

3.6%

0.9%

3.4%

It doesn't feel right that B.J. Upton, a man whose initials stand for Bossman Junior, now holds the Rays team record for walks. Bossmen shouldn't walk, they should be carried by litter-bearers.
22

61

86

61.1

63.6

64.4

.425

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Felix Hernandez, the owner of a 2.83 career ERA against the Yankees, coughed up six runs in six innings on Monday. Well, I'll tell ya, Suzyn...
23

63

85

70.7

65.6

65.4

.447

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Someone really needs to find out what Nick Hundley did while on the DL in July. He now has five three-hit games in 26 since then, and is 15-for-34 (.441) with a 1.022 OPS in September.
24

67

80

65.3

59.0

58.1

.424

.405

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Pirates have gone -- deep breath -- 16-36 since being seven games over .500 on July 19. At least the Steelers look good... wait, never mind.
25

67

80

69.9

69.4

70.8

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You know it has been a long season when you go five months between three-hit games. Kurt Suzuki has endured the worst campaign of his career in 2011, but perhaps a hot finish is in store, as he went 3-for-4 on Monday for the first time since April 14th.
26

71

76

71.5

72.4

72.8

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mets need to win 10 of their last 15 games to finish .500. Terry Collins should be given a statue at Citi Field for somehow getting his injury-depleted team to this point.
27

59

87

56.1

49.8

50.6

.369

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There are only two Twins on the list of 76 players eligible for the AL batting title -- Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia. That's just sad.
28

72

74

73.2

74.7

74.2

.504

.484

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The more the Dodgers play Dee Gordon in the leadoff spot, the more it becomes obvious that he doesn't belong there.
29

62

86

67.7

67.6

68.4

.449

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joakim Soria needs two saves in the Royals' final 14 games to become one of two Royals pitchers to pick up 30 saves in four consecutive seasons. It's too bad that their season is two months beyond saving.
30

68

77

67.6

68.2

68.4

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Steve Lombardozzi didn't get a hit in his first 15 major league at-bats, but he came through in the clutch on Monday. His single came off knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, too. We'll have to wait to see his first hit off a normal pitch.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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