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Prospectus Hit List for September 12



by Clark Goble and Daniel Rathman

Hit List for September 11 Hit List for September 13
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

We unveil the new Hit List, updated daily.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

88

57

92.3

87.4

87.4

.612

.631

86.7%

13.2%

99.9%

0.1%

-0.1%

Cory Wade was credited with his fifth win of the season in Sunday's game. He now has more wins since joining the Yankees on June 15th than A.J. Burnett.
2

94

49

92.9

91.7

91.0

.646

.628

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Raul Ibanez picked up the ol' sombrero in Sunday's game. Fitting, too, since he should probably be wearing one on a beach somewhere.
3

85

61

87.2

90.6

89.9

.604

.623

13.3%

83.8%

97.1%

-1.6%

-2.8%

Boston's team ERA for the month of September so far: 6.61. You think John Lackey's bad? That's worse, collectively, than John Lackey (6.30 ERA) has been this season.
4

83

64

86.7

90.3

90.8

.597

.616

90.4%

0.1%

90.5%

7.5%

-1.6%

Koji Uehara has served up five homers in just 13.2 innings since coming to Texas. Tommy Hunter's given up 10 in 50 innings since leaving Texas in that trade. That's 15 homers in 63.2 innings, for a 2.14 HR/9. Is this the most gopherbally deadline deal ever?
5

81

64

81.4

82.0

82.4

.563

.583

0.0%

2.7%

2.8%

1.5%

2.6%

The Rays turned to Big Game James to seal a sweep of the Red Sox, and Shields delivered 8.1 innings of one-run ball to pull Tampa Bay within three games in the loss column of Boston.
6

84

62

77.7

81.8

80.4

.555

.574

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.1%

2.4%

The Tigers have swept three straight division opponents for the first time since 1998. They're a stunning 19-4 since Aug. 19 and could lock up the division by next weekend.
7

80

66

77.0

76.2

76.0

.529

.549

9.6%

0.1%

9.8%

-7.6%

1.8%

On Saturday, Dan Haren became the first pitcher to throw a complete game shutout against the Yankees since Felix Hernandez on June 30, 2010. But the last pitcher to do so without issuing a walk (as Haren did)? That would be Billy Traber on July 8, 2003.
8

86

62

80.4

83.5

82.7

.562

.542

99.0%

0.1%

99.1%

0.1%

-0.7%

The Brewers narrowly avoided a sweep on Sunday, picking up just their second win against a team other than the Astros since August 28th. Now just one game ahead of the D'backs in the standings, Milwaukee needs to get going soon to avoid a rematch with the Phillies in the NLDS.
9

73

72

70.7

75.8

75.6

.509

.529

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-1.5%

The White Sox continue to struggle at home, falling to 33-39 at U.S. Cellular Field on Sunday. Chicago is 40-33 on the road, amounting to the biggest road-to-home victory differential of anyone in the AL.
10

84

63

79.5

79.2

78.1

.546

.526

0.0%

94.4%

94.4%

-2.6%

-4.7%

Maybe getting back to Turner Field will help the Braves break out of their slump. The Cardinals now lurk four and a half games back in the NL Wild Card.
11

79

67

78.3

78.3

77.4

.536

.516

1.0%

5.2%

6.2%

2.2%

5.3%

The Redbirds' hot week has injected some life into a mostly lackluster month of baseball. The Cards have closed the gap in both the NL Wild Card and the NL Central. And now they get the Marlins.
12

74

73

73.6

70.5

72.6

.494

.514

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

David Cooper and Adam Loewen - two of Triple-A Las Vegas's biggest mashers this season -- looked right at home in the majors on Sunday, the former hitting his second career tater, and the latter his first. Of course, the Orioles pitched Tommy Hunter, Willie Eyre, Clay Rapada, and Brad Bergesen in that game, so it might as well have been Triple-A.
13

85

62

78.5

74.7

74.6

.532

.512

99.7%

0.0%

99.7%

-0.1%

5.3%

You know it's a good year when your backup catcher is slugging .500, and that's where Henry Blanco is after cranking his seventh homer in just 94 at-bats on Sunday.
14

72

72

68.4

67.9

68.1

.480

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.9%

Ubaldo Jimenez hit 98 mph in the fifth inning on Sunday. His 93.4 mph fastball average still ranks among the leaders in baseball, but that's nearly two mph slower than his averages from 2009 and 2010. His fastball is also moving much less.
15

71

75

76.0

76.0

75.4

.511

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Edinson Volquez in Coors Field? It truly could have been ugly, but Volquez delivered a solid five innings on Sunday, giving up two runs and four hits.
16

66

80

69.0

68.8

70.2

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With six more games left against the Angels, and three more against the Rangers, the A's may ultimately decide the winner of the AL West.
17

72

73

73.3

74.5

74.0

.507

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

Hiroki Kuroda has been saddled with 22 percent (16 of 73) of the Dodgers' losses, despite logging the second-lowest ERA (3.25) of their starting pitchers. After the game, the Giants' pitching staff welcomed him into their clubhouse for a sympathetic group-hug.
18

76

70

70.6

73.2

72.9

.501

.481

0.3%

0.3%

0.5%

0.3%

-5.2%

Giants fans frustrated with Bruce Bochy's unwillingness to play Brandon Belt must have thought the apocalypse was near when the manager penciled him into his lineup on consecutive days. Not to worry, by the sixth inning on Sunday, Belt was back to warming the bench after a double-switch.
19

71

75

71.1

72.1

72.6

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mike Piazza, who hit a blast to help the Mets win the first professional sporting event in New York after September 11, 2001, caught the first pitch on Sunday. There was no such ending to this contest, though, as the Mets fell to the Cubs in extras of the rubber game.
20

69

77

71.8

73.2

72.7

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Back in April, it seemed as if a Reds-Rockies series in September could be important, but this weekend's games were pretty much rookie showcases.
21

62

86

67.7

67.6

68.4

.449

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In his first major league start, Everett Teaford pitched five shutout innings. He'll certainly get more looks as the Royals look to set up their rotation in 2012.
22

66

79

65.9

72.5

71.7

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No Mike Stanton, no Hanley Ramirez, no Logan Morrison; there wasn't a whole lot to see in the Marlins lineup on Sunday. Of course, it was still enough to cap a sweep of the Pirates in which Florida outscored them 20-5.
23

61

85

61.2

63.6

64.4

.428

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Smoak, who returned from the disabled list on Sept. 2, is 13-for-39 in his last 10 games. Before heading to the DL, Smoak went 14-for-91 in July and August, good for a .154 batting average.
24

67

77

67.0

67.5

67.6

.467

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After tossing 31 pitches in the first inning on Sunday, Stephen Strasburg couldn't make it into the fourth inning. But the Nats held off the Astros to secure a series victory.
25

63

84

70.8

65.5

65.3

.450

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rookie third baseman James Darnell hit his first career home run in Saturday's game, a welcome sight for the Padres since he entered that contest with a lowly .355 OPS. One of the team's top hitting prospects, Darnell looks like he'll fit right in.
26

64

82

62.4

63.3

62.8

.432

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs took early three-run leads in each game of their weekend series at Citi Field, but lost them all and still won two of three.
27

58

87

57.5

55.8

56.5

.393

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ever since the Orioles promoted Matt Angle from the minors, Buck Showalter has insisted on writing him into the leadoff spot in his lineup. Unfortunately, Angle's .260 OBP doesn't quite fit the job description.
28

66

80

64.7

58.5

57.5

.422

.403

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since coming to the Pirates at the trade deadline, Derrek Lee is batting .347/.373/.603 in 49 at-bats. Somehow, he's neither drawn a walk nor hit a double during that span.
29

59

87

56.1

49.8

50.6

.369

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The September youth movement continues for the Twins and Ron Gardenhire, who wrote five rookies into the lineup card on Sunday with first-year pitcher Scott Diamond on the mound. The Twins have lost eight of nine.
30

49

97

55.8

56.3

56.3

.372

.354

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sunday's loss was the 97th of the year for the Astros, tying a club-record most recently set in 1991. It will be a challenge to avoid 100 losses by the weekend: Houston plays host to Philadelphia starting on Monday.

Clark Goble is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Clark's other articles. You can contact Clark by clicking here
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here


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