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Prospectus Hit List for September 7



by Rob McQuown

Hit List for September 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The latest Hit List stats through games of September 6 show the Yankees leading the pack. Daniel Rathman and Clark Goble bring today's team-by-team commentary.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

87

53

90.4

87.0

87.2

.628

.646

75.4%

24.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

By the time the game got underway at 11:08 p.m. Eastern, Yankees Stadium looked more like Sun Life Stadium. Fortunately, the few fans who did stick around witnessed something they may never see again -- back-to-back homers by Francisco Cervelli and Brett Gardner.
2

90

48

89.4

88.1

87.3

.643

.624

99.9%

0.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Phillies became the first team to 90 wins this season, and eliminated just about any chance of a collapse that would make things interesting in the NL East.
3

85

56

86.5

89.7

89.2

.621

.640

24.6%

75.3%

99.9%

0.2%

0.0%

The Red Sox put up a crooked number in each of the first five innings, and Marco Scutaro had reached base five times by the end of the seventh.
4

81

62

83.4

86.5

87.0

.591

.610

93.7%

0.0%

93.8%

5.2%

3.0%

Coming into Tuesday's game, C.J. Wilson had never thrown a shutout -- in the majors or the minors. Well, now he has.
5

85

58

78.8

82.7

81.8

.574

.554

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.5%

Good thing Yovani Gallardo probably won't have to face the Cardinals anymore this season; he sports a gaudy 5.70 ERA against them in 2011.
6

77

64

77.7

78.7

78.9

.554

.573

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.2%

Jeff Niemann should be thrilled he won't have to face the Rangers again for a while. He's allowed 12 runs in 9.2 innings in his last two starts, bloating his career ERA against Texas to a disastrous 10.66.
7

82

59

76.6

76.3

75.2

.550

.530

0.1%

98.0%

98.1%

-0.6%

-0.2%

Chipper Jones appears to have found the fountain of youth since returning from the disabled list on July 25th. He's batting .349/.400/.640 in 86 at-bats over that span.
8

75

67

75.6

75.3

74.2

.528

.508

0.0%

0.8%

0.9%

0.2%

-0.8%

On eight days' rest, Kyle Lohse silenced the Brewer bats and pulled the Cardinals within eight games of the Wild Card and 9.5 games of the NL Central.
9

81

61

75.4

70.8

70.9

.525

.505

92.3%

0.2%

92.6%

-2.9%

10.7%

David Hernandez has allowed an earned run in just 11 of his 67 relief appearances this season, but three of those 11 have been meltdowns of four or more runs, the latest one coming in the eighth inning on Tuesday.
10

80

62

74.9

78.1

76.8

.545

.565

98.3%

0.0%

98.3%

0.6%

12.3%

After losing six of their first eight meetings with the Indians, the Tigers have won the last six, snagging the AL Central lead along the way.
11

70

72

74.9

74.5

73.8

.516

.496

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Mike Leake went nine innings, but he had to hand the game off to six Reds pitchers who shut down the Cubs in extras.
12

77

65

74.1

72.4

71.9

.520

.540

6.3%

0.0%

6.3%

-5.3%

-3.0%

Four errors certainly didn't help the Angels as they try to climb up the AL West standings.
13

69

72

71.3

72.4

71.8

.505

.485

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

The Dodgers couldn't generate much against Stephen Strasburg, but they sure can beat the other Nationals!
14

70

72

70.7

67.9

69.8

.490

.510

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Not a lot went right for the Blue Jays on Tuesday, but it was nice to see Dustin McGowan back on a big league mound for the first time since July 8, 2008.
15

67

75

69.5

71.0

70.5

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Thanks to the Rockies' seven-run eighth inning, Matt Belisle -- a reliever -- now has as many wins (10) as Wandy Rodriguez, Chad Billingsley, and Madison Bumgarner.
16

69

71

69.0

70.2

70.7

.498

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bobby Parnell has blown two save opportunities in the past four days. Unlike Saturday's game, though, the Mets were able to salvage this one in the 12th.
17

61

81

68.5

63.7

63.4

.452

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Nick Hundley went yard again on Tuesday, giving him a .391/.432/.768 triple-slash in 69 at-bats since the All-Star Break.
18

75

67

68.5

71.3

70.9

.503

.483

7.6%

0.8%

8.4%

3.4%

-10.0%

Fresh up from Fresno, Brett Pill homered his first career at-bat, clanking a hard liner off the Western Metal Supply Co. building at Petco.
19

71

69

68.0

72.3

72.3

.506

.526

1.6%

0.0%

1.6%

-0.3%

-10.7%

Alex Rios and Adam Dunn jumpstarted the offense and Jake Peavy retired 15 of 18 batters in one stretch ... Wait, is this 2007?
20

64

78

67.9

67.5

68.6

.472

.492

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez have been hit hard in the A's last two games.
21

60

83

66.4

66.3

67.3

.455

.474

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals have to be happy with Danny Duffy's final start of the season.
22

70

69

66.4

66.6

66.8

.485

.505

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

-0.2%

-1.6%

Fausto Carmona's ERA in his last three outings: 9.88.
23

65

75

65.2

65.2

65.6

.466

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This just in: that Stephen Strasburg guy is still pretty darn good.
24

65

77

64.2

57.6

56.7

.429

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The bottom three hitters in the Pirates' lineup -- including two pinch-hitters -- combined for nine plate appearances and saw just 23 pitches.
25

63

78

62.4

69.1

68.6

.467

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins rallied off Mets closer Bobby Parnell in the ninth, but Jose Ceda needed 40 pitches to record just two outs in the 12th, and ceded the game in the process.
26

61

81

59.6

61.0

60.4

.426

.407

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With the bases loaded in the 10th inning, Jeff Baker grounded into an inning-ending double play' Your 2011 Chicago Cubs!
27

59

82

58.6

61.3

62.4

.428

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

King Felix has had a pretty last seven days against the Angels: 17 IP, 1 ER.
28

55

85

54.9

52.6

53.3

.385

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a hilarious, karmic twist, after Buck Showalter encouraged the umpires to let the game continue despite Yankee Stadium being utterly drenched, left fielder Matt Angle slipped on a muddy warning track and dropped a flyball, gifting the Yankees a fifth inning run.
29

58

84

54.7

49.3

50.0

.373

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Liam Hendriks, the Aussie righthander, was one of three rookies who started for the Twins as they were officially eliminated from the AL Central race.
30

48

94

54.0

54.8

55.1

.373

.355

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rookie third baseman Jimmy Paredes, a .279 career hitter in the minors and a .270 hitter in Double-A this season, raised his big league average to .300 with a 3-for-4 night.

Rob McQuown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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