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Prospectus Hit List for April 24



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for April 20
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It took a while, but the Padres are at the bottom.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

13

6

11.1

11.3

11.1

.589

.594

70.7%

16.9%

87.6%

1.1%

2.8%

Jake Marisnick made a spectacular play by crashing into the wall to rob Logan Morrison of extra bases on Sunday. He looked dazed, but NFL trainers immediately cleared him to return to action.
2

13

5

10.7

11.9

11.8

.596

.591

63.2%

16.4%

79.5%

1.5%

22.1%

Stephen Strasburg is set to go on Paternity Leave, but expect the Nationals to pressure him to wait to do anything until he has a more important kid.
3

11

7

12.1

12.9

12.5

.583

.588

17.7%

18.0%

35.7%

-2.7%

-2.1%

The Yankees have a left-handed relic, a perpetual disappointment, a reliever and a swingman as their No. 2-5 starters, yet they’ve allowed the second-fewest earned runs in baseball.
4

9

10

10.8

11.6

12.1

.586

.581

67.2%

19.3%

86.5%

2.1%

-4.3%

We’re only a few bad Kenta Maeda starts away from the lazy comparisons sliding away from Masahiro Tanaka and Hiroki Kuroda and toward Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa.
5

10

8

9.9

11.1

10.6

.574

.579

75.1%

10.7%

85.8%

-1.0%

10.8%

The Indians are ... fully healthy? Omg don’t breathe on them or even look in their general direction or you’ll knock them over.
6

10

8

9.9

10.5

10.4

.572

.567

80.0%

8.3%

88.3%

0.0%

4.2%

Yes, the Cubs are already getting sort of annoying, but we should all be pulling for Jason Heyward to continue his hot start because of how upset it will make Cardinals fans.
7

11

8

9.8

10.4

10.0

.542

.547

48.2%

18.2%

66.3%

1.7%

5.2%

By throwing a fastball near Manny Machado’s head, Matt Barnes proved that he’s exactly as smart as he is good.
8

13

6

10.6

11.3

10.7

.542

.537

13.6%

26.3%

39.9%

3.6%

16.3%

I will not fall for the Rockies’ hot start. I will not fall for the Rockies’ hot start. I will not fall for the Rockies’ hot start. /casually places Bovada bet.
9

10

10

10.6

11.1

11.9

.530

.535

19.4%

18.8%

38.3%

-3.7%

-7.2%

Steven Souza Jr. is finally flashing the potential the Rays saw in him as the third-best player in The Second Wil Myers Trade.
10

12

8

12.2

10.5

10.1

.526

.521

12.1%

24.9%

37.0%

-2.8%

11.1%

“There’s no such thing as curses,” you tell yourself as Shelby Miller is removed from a game with forearm tightness following his best start as a Dback.
11

10

8

10.3

10.0

9.9

.519

.514

10.0%

13.9%

23.9%

1.2%

-0.2%

“Hey guys, check out the launch angle on Dee Gordon’s inside the park homer!” you yell cleverly into the abyss. But no one’s there. They all left you alone long ago.
12

9

10

10.4

8.8

8.7

.508

.513

14.3%

25.3%

39.6%

1.5%

14.2%

Joey Gallo only has 13 hits this season, but 10 of them have gone for extra bases. He is truly a more handsome, more nimble Mark Reynolds.
13

12

5

9.3

8.2

8.3

.508

.513

10.2%

12.2%

22.4%

-3.3%

5.4%

“I’m not mad at all,” Buck Showalter said to The Boston Herald. “I’ve actually never been mad about this. I’m actually just laughing.”
14

8

12

10.5

9.6

10.0

.500

.505

9.4%

20.8%

30.2%

3.0%

-8.5%

The Mariners became the second AL West team to DFA Leonys Martin this week. Odds are they won’t be the last. /eyes Athletics
15

10

9

11.1

10.4

10.2

.501

.496

3.1%

6.5%

9.6%

1.4%

-2.3%

The next time you think you’re too old to do something, please remember that Bronson Arroyo won two consecutive starts in 2017. Age, much like fastball velocity, is just a number.
16

10

9

8.2

10.7

10.2

.491

.496

3.5%

8.7%

12.2%

-0.2%

4.2%

Sonny Gray is close to rejoining the team, and his performance will go a long way toward determining whether the A’s get just two or three underwhelming prospects for him this July.
17

8

10

9.3

9.2

8.7

.488

.493

5.6%

11.0%

16.6%

-3.0%

-11.0%

It’s somewhat remarkable that Matt Boyd managed to throw behind Miguel Sano given the size of Miguel Sano’s behind.
18

8

11

9.2

8.4

8.6

.496

.491

22.5%

23.8%

46.3%

-3.4%

-21.1%

I wonder if Mets fans even flinch at the beach scene in Saving Private Ryan at this point. They’re used to the gore.
19

10

8

7.7

7.8

7.7

.478

.483

15.1%

18.4%

33.5%

5.2%

-0.4%

You gotta feel for JaCoby Jones, who was not only hit in the face with a fastball but who was then sued by Pirates outfielders for copyright infringement.
20

9

9

9.7

9.0

9.4

.479

.474

2.4%

4.5%

6.9%

1.4%

3.1%

The Battle for Fourth Place swung heavily in Philadelphia’s favor this weekend with their three-game sweep of the Braves. Inspiring.
21

9

11

9.9

9.1

9.2

.470

.465

4.3%

9.1%

13.4%

-2.0%

-7.0%

Eric Thames is becoming such an impressive source of lefty power it’s a wonder James Comey hasn’t tried to ruin him yet.
22

8

10

7.2

7.5

7.8

.460

.455

7.6%

14.2%

21.8%

2.9%

-6.0%

Andrew McCutchen has brought some real attitude back to center field with him, much to the chagrin of Peter King and that Starbucks barista.
23

9

10

8.0

7.9

8.5

.460

.455

5.0%

10.5%

15.6%

-1.1%

7.3%

If you took Mike Leake in your “most random Cardinals player who will somehow become annoyingly good for 2017” pool, congrats! Your prize is a second-half collapse.
24

8

12

7.8

7.9

8.0

.438

.443

2.1%

6.1%

8.1%

-0.8%

-4.0%

Mimicking Senior English students in colleges all throughout the country, the Angels traded in (Kirby) Yates for some (Brooks) Pounders this week.
25

6

13

7.3

6.8

7.1

.446

.441

6.8%

17.6%

24.3%

-4.1%

-16.3%

Madison Bumgarner is on the DL thanks to what Clint Barmes called “a really stupid injury.”
26

8

9

7.7

5.7

6.3

.431

.436

2.7%

5.3%

8.0%

0.9%

-6.8%

“Renteria says [Matt Davidson’s] absence due to allowing other Sox to face specific pitchers,” says the WhiteSox.com headline that tries the hardest to avoid saying “benched.”
27

5

13

7.1

6.4

6.5

.425

.430

4.5%

7.1%

11.6%

2.7%

1.2%

Ah yes. The grass is green. The flowers are blooming. The weather is turning. And Troy Tulowitzki is on the DL. Spring is truly here.
28

7

11

7.0

7.2

7.5

.423

.427

1.5%

2.6%

4.0%

-1.4%

-4.0%

“But Raul Mondesi was so young for the majors,” you say as though wins and losses are somehow graded on a curve.
29

6

12

6.8

7.5

7.4

.425

.420

1.9%

3.1%

5.0%

-0.3%

-6.2%

The Braves have scored the third-fewest and allowed the fifth-most runs in the National League, but other than that the rebuild is going pretty well.
30

8

12

6.4

7.5

7.3

.397

.392

0.3%

1.6%

1.9%

-0.5%

-0.7%

Mike Zunino thinks it’s tough to watch Austin Hedges at the plate right now. The five homers are great, but the 29% strikeout rate is pretty rough.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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