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Prospectus Hit List for July 1



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for June 29
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Hey look it's the first Hit List of the second half, says the slave to calendars.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

44

35

46.9

51.0

49.6

.599

.580

80.4%

11.1%

91.6%

1.8%

6.7%

I didn't think it was possible but Joc Pederson seems to have more power than Bryce Harper to go along with an even worse haircut.
2

46

34

46.4

48.2

48.0

.545

.565

57.7%

20.9%

78.5%

9.6%

8.7%

Brett Oberholtzer probably grew up in his backyard pretending to hit Alex Rodriguez with a pitch, as did most kids of his generation.
3

51

25

50.0

46.3

46.2

.584

.565

88.2%

10.9%

99.1%

-0.1%

1.9%

Adam Wainwright, who was ruled out for the year, wants to pitch this October. Because if he doesn't beat the Dodgers in the playoffs, who will?
4

41

38

47.8

43.0

43.2

.530

.550

22.8%

20.8%

43.5%

-1.0%

-0.3%

Justin Smoak is in the top five of All-Star voting, so where there's Justin Smoak, there's also Mike Fyhrie.
5

35

45

44.9

46.1

46.3

.527

.547

1.9%

3.5%

5.4%

-0.9%

-2.2%

A Ben Zobrist trade would make sense for so many teams, but probably not the A's, since they already have him. But that doesn't mean they'll try to trade him from the A's to the A's.
6

41

37

39.0

38.8

40.2

.526

.546

26.7%

24.8%

51.6%

-1.1%

10.1%

If this team's going to add any more payroll at the deadline, they may need to strip mine the rocks beyond center field and put in a Coldstone Creamery.
7

41

37

41.1

42.8

43.0

.520

.540

29.2%

18.9%

48.1%

-5.9%

-1.0%

What do you think Derek Jeter misses most during his retirement? Besides groundballs to his left, I mean.
8

44

30

42.6

42.8

42.8

.519

.539

66.8%

11.5%

78.3%

-0.2%

14.3%

Omar Infante's All-Star vote lead is decreasing; he's getting hammered on economic and domestic issues and needs to start talking about more family values, such as "how do I tell my kids about Omar Infante leading the All-Star vote?"
9

43

34

42.2

43.8

41.7

.558

.538

81.4%

5.6%

87.0%

1.5%

6.1%

One of these days Max Scherzer is going to give up seven runs in an inning, just so he can feel feelings again.
10

42

37

40.2

40.7

40.7

.515

.535

25.3%

20.9%

46.2%

-6.9%

-22.6%

I'm not sure why the Rays needed to have a fake throwback night when their outfield looks like the reception of your grandfather's color TV from the 1970s.
11

39

37

37.6

39.8

39.8

.513

.533

22.2%

18.9%

41.1%

-2.1%

-6.5%

Alexi Casilla had the walkoff hit for the Twins against the Tigers in 2009's Game 163, and six years later has been traded to the Tigers, presumably to be kept in a large jar.
12

41

36

43.3

40.7

40.5

.509

.529

18.4%

15.0%

33.5%

-4.2%

4.1%

Since 2002, the Orioles have allowed 4+ home runs 85 times. Eleven of those times have been to the Rangers. (In Texas, they shoot birds.)
13

40

38

39.6

37.3

38.0

.501

.521

11.1%

16.6%

27.7%

7.2%

2.3%

Startling trend: the average household has 2.3 Joey Gallo home run balls in their backyard that they don't even know about.
14

36

43

35.0

38.0

38.3

.501

.521

4.3%

5.9%

10.2%

0.3%

1.2%

One of two things will happen: (a) the Red Sox will go on a 15-game winning streak and be back in this; (b) the Red Sox will trade their entire team to an expansion Montreal Expos for prospects and poutine, and win the 2016 World Series.
15

40

35

38.4

41.4

42.2

.540

.520

5.8%

59.5%

65.3%

4.0%

-12.6%

The Cubs have one of the strongest social media presences out there today, but this is no surprise since their outfield wall has always been using Vine.
16

43

33

43.6

43.5

41.4

.539

.520

6.0%

55.7%

61.6%

2.8%

-5.3%

A good argument for the designated hitter: Jordy Mercer has as many career intentional walks as Vernon Wells. An argument against the designated hitter: Jordy Mercer has as many career intentional walks as Vernon Wells.
17

42

36

41.4

42.5

41.5

.539

.519

17.7%

33.9%

51.6%

-2.9%

10.6%

Designate you for assignment once, shame on me. Designate you for assignment twice, shame on McGehee.
18

35

41

34.8

39.7

40.4

.495

.515

5.2%

7.4%

12.6%

3.2%

0.3%

That scene in Titanic, only Carlos Santana is in a room with a topless Kate Winslet and is furiously drawing a walk.
19

35

42

33.0

34.8

36.8

.489

.509

2.6%

5.9%

8.4%

-0.2%

-5.5%

Seattle has already lost their challenge for the day, as the review booth has, unsurprisingly, upheld the Robinson Cano signing.
20

40

38

37.5

36.7

35.5

.502

.482

16.5%

10.8%

27.3%

-3.6%

3.1%

A good euphemism for moving Wilmer Flores off shortstop would be "perpetually shifting him." A bad euphemism would be "your defense makes Rey Ordonez weep in the night."
21

41

36

38.8

32.8

32.5

.452

.472

5.3%

8.1%

13.4%

2.4%

-0.8%

Glen Perkins is only a few saves away from Eddie Guardado on the Twins all-time list, and you'll know he's about to pass Eddie Guardado when bullpen coach Eddie Guardado duct tapes the bullpen gate shut.
22

35

41

36.2

38.4

37.3

.479

.459

0.0%

2.6%

2.6%

-0.5%

-0.0%

If no team is willing to trade for the full value of Jonny Cueto, perhaps several teams can just acquire a few of his dreads.
23

37

40

37.7

36.9

37.1

.477

.458

1.1%

4.2%

5.3%

-0.0%

-0.6%

Yasmany Tomas has a better batting average right now than any season he played in Serie Nacional.
24

33

42

28.5

27.5

28.3

.436

.456

0.5%

0.9%

1.4%

-0.2%

-2.2%

Text "DINGERS" to 12345 to donate any unused run support to the Jose Quintana Fund. Every quality at bat helps.
25

32

46

34.9

37.4

37.9

.475

.456

1.0%

0.7%

1.6%

0.5%

-1.1%

I don't know, Justinbourlo Stanton just doesn't have the same panache to it.
26

37

42

35.6

32.2

33.1

.466

.447

0.7%

3.6%

4.3%

-3.7%

-5.7%

Everyone wants to be the best, but Alexi Amarista settles for major league caliber because otherwise all the Jose Altuve jokes would be about him.
27

34

43

34.0

32.7

32.4

.443

.424

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.2%

Tomorrow's headlines today: the Rockies have not played actual games in three weeks, but some intern has been sending in the box scores and nobody has questioned them.
28

36

41

35.0

33.9

33.5

.439

.419

1.1%

0.9%

2.0%

-0.1%

-2.7%

Tonight's starter, Matt Wisler, is from the city where they make Dum Dum lollipops, which works out because next year the Braves are moving to a county that is full of suckers.
29

31

48

31.3

29.2

29.9

.430

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

BAR RESCUE (2015) Jon Taffer tries to revive a bar that contains a Major League Baseball field. "You got a f***ing last-place team actually playing inside your godd*** bar! This is disgusting! And look how much you're paying Ryan Br***! Shut this place down."
30

27

52

25.8

25.0

25.2

.367

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sounds like this team's gonna have much more MacPhail and much less EpicPhail!

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
okteds

One of these things is not like the other in the top 10....I'm a die-hard A's fan, but they look really out of place on this list...

Jul 01, 2015 10:27 AM
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MPC203

Exactly what I was thinking. The projections must like something about them as they have been in the top-10 for quite some time now. They must LOVE the starting pitching, because I can't think of much else they're doing consistently that would put them in the top third of the league.

Jul 01, 2015 20:00 PM
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Schere

that's a GREAT Jeter line.

Jul 01, 2015 11:50 AM
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0

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