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Prospectus Hit List for August 31



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for August 28
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

It's Monday, which means you're legally obligated to read the Hit List.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

74

56

83.9

79.5

79.2

.609

.628

70.2%

29.5%

99.7%

0.2%

2.2%

Edwin Encarnacion, at long last, had as many RBI in a series as he has letters in his last name. No reason to change his name to Edwin Lee.
2

72

59

76.5

78.9

79.2

.585

.604

86.0%

10.4%

96.4%

-1.5%

1.5%

Batting average is dead, because the Astros are routinely running seven players a night with averages below .250.
3

80

50

74.5

70.4

71.2

.569

.589

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals could still lose out and achieve a losing record, and that would make all our preseason predictions correct, so let's go ahead and root for that.
4

84

46

81.8

75.4

75.0

.608

.589

86.1%

13.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This weekend, Jaime Garcia struck out one and won. Lance Lynn struck out two and won. Michael Wacha struck out six and the team lost. Six strikeouts is too many, according to science.
5

72

57

72.4

73.1

73.2

.563

.583

29.7%

66.8%

96.5%

0.1%

3.0%

Scoring 15 and 20 runs in the same series is pretty impressive for the Yankees. Difficulty: they did it without the DH.
6

72

57

71.8

78.9

77.1

.581

.561

86.5%

1.2%

87.7%

-1.3%

12.5%

Vin Scully is coming back for his 67th season. He's been around so long, he remembers when Denali was called Mount McKinley.
7

79

50

73.8

73.3

72.3

.578

.559

13.1%

86.6%

99.7%

-0.2%

0.5%

Andrew McCutchen is still an MVP candidate even with short hair, so your mom is hoping this means you'll cut your hair soon.
8

63

66

64.3

73.4

74.2

.533

.553

0.0%

12.7%

12.7%

1.4%

8.2%

If standings didn't exist, you'd think the Indians were the team to beat this week, thanks to inspired play from Abraham Almonte, Giovany Urshela, and wait a minute this is just my Out of the Park simulation on its 60th season.
9

74

55

67.8

71.3

70.7

.550

.530

0.8%

92.7%

93.5%

5.4%

-0.2%

Joe Maddon may be a players' manager, but I don't know, if my boss made me wear a onesie to work, calls to the authorities would be involved.
10

72

58

71.1

71.1

69.9

.546

.527

90.5%

0.3%

90.7%

0.9%

4.9%

Yoenis Cespedes went hitless this weekend, so put the Mets' panic meter to "loud thud heard down the street and you're not sure what it was but you're too disinterested to find out what"
11

69

61

71.9

71.5

71.2

.545

.526

13.3%

4.1%

17.5%

-3.7%

-9.9%

The Giants were 1-1 when Marlon Byrd had four RBI this season, and 1-0 when Marlon Byrd had four RBI and a negative WPA.
12

64

66

62.4

67.3

68.0

.503

.523

0.1%

7.5%

7.6%

1.0%

-12.9%

It was cute for a while, but putting Daniel Nava in the two-hole every day, at this point, is a cry for help.
13

57

74

66.8

69.1

70.7

.503

.523

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

If he keeps his OPS over .800, Stephen Vogt will be the second A's catcher in the last 39 years to do that, and I'm not sure how many guesses you would have taken to reach Terry Steinbach as the other one.
14

63

67

69.3

64.2

64.4

.502

.522

0.1%

1.6%

1.6%

-1.9%

-11.3%

Scoring four runs in the weekend series while getting swept is no cause for concern. Gerardo Parra's due to hit 20 home runs this week, or something like that.
15

68

61

62.5

60.6

61.4

.489

.509

12.1%

41.6%

53.8%

4.8%

17.5%

Derek Holland throwing his first shutout since 2013 means that Derek Holland can still do a decent Derek Holland impression.
16

66

63

68.2

70.2

68.0

.528

.508

9.5%

1.1%

10.7%

-1.0%

-4.8%

For the first time in rock-paper-scissors history, Fister beat Hand.
17

65

65

63.0

61.0

62.2

.483

.503

1.8%

9.9%

11.7%

-5.0%

-11.5%

There's only one thing left to do to fix this losing streak: make another Josh Hamilton out of sticks and straw, and trade it away.
18

60

70

61.1

62.3

61.9

.472

.492

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

David Ortiz made an error and hit a home run playing first base, so, jeez, Hanley Ramirez could do that.
19

67

63

64.3

55.4

56.2

.467

.487

0.0%

18.5%

18.5%

2.4%

7.8%

Remember when the Twins were in the playoff race? That was a scary few wee— oh, they're still in it? Well, this is awkward.
20

60

70

57.6

61.4

62.5

.464

.484

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.5%

-3.3%

Bullpen phones still use landlines, otherwise the Tigers bullpen would change their ringtone to "Toccata and Fugue in D Minor."
21

63

67

67.5

65.9

65.3

.503

.483

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-2.4%

Now that Addison Reed has been cleared off the books via trade, they can call up his younger brother with higher potential, Multiplicason Reed.
22

61

70

55.6

61.4

62.6

.459

.479

0.0%

0.3%

0.4%

-0.7%

-0.2%

The new general manager must be able to handle a high payroll and low expectations in a West coast market, where they play their games long after everyone back east goes to sleep. Hope it looks appealing to someone.
23

61

68

58.0

56.5

57.7

.452

.472

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

-0.1%

-1.1%

Trayce Thompson has a hit in every game he's started in his career. That's a total of eight games, large enough of a sample size to believe this will continue for the rest of his career.
24

63

67

59.9

57.5

57.3

.457

.437

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.7%

Down the stretch, James Shields went seven innings and allowed one run. That's why they call him "Big Game James," because they can practically sniff third place in the division.
25

53

76

56.9

60.1

60.0

.446

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joey Votto has mastered the art of having a 1.000+ OPS and having nobody notice: just accomplish it in Cincinnati.
26

52

79

57.8

58.7

58.0

.432

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins are now 5-9 when Justin Bour hits a home run, and 3-0 when he hits a home run against the Giants. Solution: just have him play the Giants every game.
27

55

75

57.4

55.0

55.3

.428

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Here's a little secret: instead of Brewers comments for the last six weeks, we've just been using passages from "The Metamorphosis" and nobody has noticed.
28

52

76

53.7

51.8

50.4

.406

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They have to trade Jose Reyes, so they can groom the next shortstop in the system to be the focal point of trade rumors for the next six seasons.
29

54

76

50.2

50.4

50.2

.394

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Things got so bad in the 20-6 loss that they needed a position pitcher to throw the ninth in— wait, they're saying Edwin Jackson *is* a pitcher.
30

52

79

48.7

47.5

47.0

.373

.354

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Technically Aaron Harang leads the team in innings, because "creeping dread" is a concept and not a player on the active roster.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
ceadie

Save ELP's version of Toccata for Druce Rondons walk on song.

Sep 01, 2015 00:39 AM
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