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Prospectus Hit List for October 5



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for October 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

...And scene.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

93

69

102.6

101.4

101.6

.615

.634

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's okay, Mark Buehrle. Fifteen straight years of 198 2/3 innings is still pretty good.
2

86

76

93.2

98.2

97.8

.579

.598

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

10.3%

35.6%

The Astros champagne celebration was insane! Most of them missed each other, but enough of the champagne cleared the fences.
3

95

67

90.1

85.8

86.3

.551

.571

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Home field advantage throughout the playoffs should be just what they need, since they had it in last year's World Series and that worked out fine.
4

97

65

90.2

97.3

95.8

.587

.567

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Good luck in the playoffs, Cubs. Fans sitting in the front rows: get exactly the heck out of the way of everything.
5

81

80

83.8

93.3

93.3

.546

.565

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.3%

Not a bad year overall. They were in the wild card chase to the final week, and they didn't trade away a Cy Young winner. Actually, that's their best year ever.
6

87

75

87.9

87.6

89.3

.543

.563

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Alex Rodriguez is likely to be the first player to win Comeback Player of the Year immediately after winning Goaway Player of the Year.
7

92

70

89.3

98.6

97.0

.582

.562

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.4%

So, Alex Wood starts Game 1, right?
8

100

62

95.8

89.6

88.9

.578

.558

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If your team is not in the playoffs, then you can take complete solace in the fact that the Cardinals are, and they won't play your team for several more months.
9

98

64

92.4

92.5

91.0

.577

.557

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You know what they say in baseball: trading for J.A. Happ the fourth time is a charm. (Jose Bautista was on the sixth charm.)
10

80

82

81.2

85.7

86.6

.515

.535

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

And now for Kevin Kiermaier to spend an offseason of doing what he was adept at all season: clean carpets.
11

90

72

88.9

90.8

88.2

.552

.532

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I'm sure everything will go fine for the Mets this postseason. They got all their times being no-hit out of the way. At worst, most of them.
12

88

74

82.9

80.1

80.4

.511

.531

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

3.0%

Bizarre, but true: if the playoffs began today, Texas would win the AL West.
13

83

79

88.5

92.7

89.1

.545

.525

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Stunning fact: the Nationals are 2-0 in the last two years on the final weekend when they throw a no-hitter.
14

84

78

88.7

89.7

89.1

.542

.522

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

With Tim Hudson and Jeremy Affeldt retiring from baseball, the Giants are on pace to have all their pitchers retire by 2022.
15

81

81

83.1

77.6

79.2

.495

.515

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There are two options for the Orioles: re-sign Chris Davis, or you fools just re-sign Chris Davis.
16

78

84

80.5

80.2

80.9

.493

.513

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Dave Dombrowski is almost finished on next year's Red Sox roster. It's basically the same roster, only they all wear striped polo uniforms.
17

85

77

79.4

76.4

77.8

.492

.512

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-10.3%

-30.1%

Remember, it's not whether you win or lose, but how you used Jo-Jo Reyes down the stretch.
18

83

79

80.6

72.1

72.8

.476

.496

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-7.1%

They were in the playoff race until the final weekend, but we have some nice lovely parting gifts for them: the fact that Eddie Rosario was the first rookie since Ray Lankford to hit at least 15 triples.
19

76

86

73.4

77.1

78.5

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Only a few months to lobby the league to allow a second designated hitter to replace the catcher, and honestly, they've built a terrific case for it.
20

68

94

77.3

77.8

79.9

.468

.488

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The A's season ended with a Dull loss. In other news, jokes sometimes write themselves.
21

79

83

81.7

80.4

80.3

.496

.476

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Paul Goldschmidt had the second-finest offensive season in Diamondbacks history. Good to see it not go to waste.
22

74

87

68.9

73.9

75.0

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Noted power hitter Miguel Cabrera won his fourth batting title in five years, and has the fifth best batting average of anyone since the start of the Expansion Era.
23

76

86

72.2

70.1

71.8

.448

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you had to pick one game to summarize the White Sox season, would you pick the time Jeff Samardzija gave up nine runs in a game, the other time he gave up nine runs in a game, or the time he gave up 10 runs in a game?
24

71

91

73.6

74.1

72.9

.450

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Looking to 2015, the Marlins need bullpen help, an outfielder, and a manager. And Ichiro's, like, standing right there.
25

74

88

72.2

70.8

69.9

.443

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If A.J. Preller could do it all over again, he'd probably make all the same trades, but hope that it works out this time.
26

64

98

68.8

71.3

72.3

.427

.407

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bryan Price is coming back as manager next year, since they'll need someone to fire in the first month to motivate the team.
27

68

94

72.2

67.4

68.4

.426

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Time to convert Miller Park back into a dormant Willy Wonka-style chocolate factory for the winter.
28

68

94

70.5

64.9

63.5

.412

.393

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez combined for 82 home runs, breaking Barry Bonds' single season record. (With an asterisk.)
29

67

95

60.5

61.2

61.6

.386

.367

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Shelby Miller finally won a game since mid-May. Miracles can happen on the final day.
30

63

99

61.9

57.0

56.8

.368

.350

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now it's time to say goodbye
To all our Hit List friends
P-H-I (See you real soon)
L-L-Y (Why? Because we like doing formula-based power rankings interspersed with wry commentary)
L-O-S-E-S

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
newsense

It can't be the last Hit List if it only includes 161 games.

Oct 05, 2015 11:52 AM
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BrewersTT

Just for the Indians and Tigers, who apparently had a rainout that didn't need to be made up.

Oct 05, 2015 20:43 PM
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Shaun P.

The saddest part of the playoffs is when the last Hit List is published. Thanks for another year of hilarity and wry commentary, Matt and Matt. I look forward to your on-going 'rivalry' in Hit List 2016: The Search for More Phillies Jokes.

But in all seriousness, you guys put out must-read material, and I really appreciate all the laughs during the season. Thank you.

Oct 05, 2015 12:30 PM
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+10

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BP staff member Matt Sussman

aw, thanks. we enjoy the heck out of this too

Oct 05, 2015 13:01 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks Shaun!

Oct 06, 2015 11:12 AM
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rweiler

Pretty remarkable that no team including the Phillies managed to lose 100 games, and the Cardinals were the only team that managed 100 wins. Taht probably means something.

Oct 05, 2015 13:00 PM
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bpsinger

Yes, it does: you can't spell.

Oct 05, 2015 22:20 PM
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+1

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mhmckay

Love the Mouseketeers to close out the season! Till April!

Oct 06, 2015 06:49 AM
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+1

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GBSimons

Cleveland was the 5th-best team in baseball? Uh, sure...

Oct 06, 2015 12:00 PM
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