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Prospectus Hit List for July 27



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for July 24
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which Jose Quintana is welcomed back to a place he never really left.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

71

31

70.0

72.2

71.7

.698

.694

99.8%

0.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

That’s weird, the Dodgers don’t usually break Clayton Kershaw’s back until October.
2

67

34

66.7

69.4

68.1

.671

.676

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Th 67-win Astros are about to get Dallas Keuchel back. It’s about time this team caught a break.
3

53

46

60.3

64.2

63.1

.608

.612

47.6%

34.5%

82.1%

1.6%

15.9%

Is “The Toddfather” a good nickname? No. Is it still better than “Down goes Frazier” puns? Yes, yes it is.
4

54

45

59.4

63.3

61.5

.601

.606

88.1%

7.2%

95.3%

0.2%

6.5%

Is hitting a walk-off grand slam when a single RBI would’ve sufficed breaking an unwritten rule? My column:
5

60

39

59.7

62.1

60.0

.610

.606

99.5%

0.2%

99.7%

0.2%

-0.1%

Turns out Adam Eaton isn’t even having the worst year among veterans from Arizona in Washington.
6

58

43

62.4

61.0

60.1

.598

.593

0.2%

90.0%

90.2%

3.4%

4.1%

Turns out getting J.D. Martinez for free was actually good? Who knew!
7

56

47

58.2

55.1

53.9

.542

.547

40.0%

36.7%

76.8%

3.1%

-11.5%

If at first you don’t succeed, try try again to fill your third base vacancy with an error-prone third baseman from San Francisco.
8

53

47

53.2

56.8

56.6

.549

.544

65.2%

9.1%

74.3%

4.4%

4.8%

Must’ve been a pretty emotional homecoming for Jose Quintana this week. He’s been gone for so long and traveled so far ...
9

53

49

52.3

55.7

54.9

.529

.534

11.7%

34.2%

45.8%

6.1%

-13.1%

Kevin Kiermaier is starting rehab and Steven Souza Jr. didn’t hit the DL. This is the best week for Rays outfielders’ hips in quite some time.
10

50

51

53.9

55.1

56.0

.532

.527

13.0%

9.7%

22.6%

3.1%

4.9%

Harrison Bader scoring the walk-off run in his first game. A sweep of the Rockies. Just 3.5 games out of first in the NL Central. Brace yourselves: Cardinals Devil Magic is coming.
11

58

45

55.9

51.9

51.4

.527

.522

0.0%

72.8%

72.8%

-5.5%

-8.8%

From the worst team to the worst ballpark to pitch in. Have yourself a year, Pat Neshek.
12

54

49

55.4

52.1

51.1

.516

.511

17.4%

9.9%

27.3%

-2.2%

-3.7%

Congrats to Brewers fans, who’s sat through a long, painful rebuild and now get to see their team make exciting deadline moves like trading for Anthony Swarzak. Inspiring.
13

53

47

49.7

48.1

49.0

.499

.504

10.4%

31.4%

41.8%

6.9%

29.9%

Props to the Royals on their inventive “never lose again” strategy. It seems to be working pretty well for them.
14

51

52

50.9

50.0

50.9

.492

.497

0.0%

19.9%

19.9%

-5.6%

-7.4%

Nice to see Doug Fister help the Mariners win again after all these years.
15

49

52

50.6

46.7

47.0

.478

.483

0.0%

15.8%

15.8%

-5.9%

1.1%

Let’s reserve some room on that rocket into the sun for Gary Davis. Honestly, it’s still not punishment for ejecting Adrian Beltre.
16

49

53

48.0

46.4

48.3

.470

.475

0.0%

5.1%

5.1%

-1.8%

-0.9%

Mets fans and Mariners fans like to complain about pitching injuries, but if the Angels had fans they’d have equal reason to whine and moan this season.
17

45

55

46.4

47.7

46.9

.465

.470

0.2%

1.3%

1.5%

-1.2%

-2.6%

It’s silly to get mad at Bruce Rondon for hit-by-pitches. We all know that if he was targeting a specific batter he’d miss.
18

46

53

46.8

46.8

47.5

.472

.467

0.2%

2.1%

2.3%

0.2%

0.8%

Who among us has not inquired about Giancarlo Stanton?
19

50

52

48.1

47.0

47.1

.471

.466

4.4%

3.0%

7.4%

-1.8%

-2.0%

Do you really have the best outfield in baseball if cosmic forces refuse to allow you to play all three of your best outfielders at the same time?
20

44

57

42.2

46.0

47.9

.446

.451

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.5%

-3.0%

The good news for the A’s? If they do trade Sonny Gray, Angel Pagan is available to slot into their Ironically Named Player vacancy.
21

47

52

45.5

43.2

43.3

.452

.447

0.1%

1.5%

1.6%

-1.1%

0.1%

It’s cute how Mets fans both hate Jay Bruce and are furious that no one else is showing interest in Jay Bruce.
22

49

51

42.9

41.9

42.8

.441

.446

1.3%

7.8%

9.1%

-2.6%

-14.3%

You’d think the Twins of all people would be better at double switches ...
23

48

52

45.3

43.6

43.3

.451

.446

0.1%

1.5%

1.7%

-0.7%

0.1%

Unfortunately, it looks like the hair was really the only part of Dansby Swanson’s game that was MLB-ready.
24

47

54

41.8

43.7

44.7

.438

.443

0.3%

3.0%

3.4%

0.3%

-0.0%

Nothing makes you reconsider selling at the deadline quite like a series against the A’s!
25

48

53

43.4

39.9

42.0

.429

.434

0.3%

2.3%

2.6%

-0.6%

-0.4%

A dominant, nine-strikeout outing against a division foe? Sure, makes sense, Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s a human craps table.
26

39

59

42.9

41.1

41.7

.420

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Tough break for the White Sox, what with Avisail Garcia headed to the DL. Looks pretty unlikely they’ll make the playoffs now.
27

41

60

41.9

42.6

44.1

.420

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Maybe offense being up around the league has less to do with juiced balls than it does the Reds pitching staff.
28

44

57

36.9

40.1

41.3

.402

.397

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It was nice of the Padres to supply the Royals with a bullpen for free. I’m sure every arm they traded is very, extremely healthy.
29

35

64

40.9

40.8

41.8

.400

.396

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The good news? Top prospect J.P. Crawford hit an inside-the-park grand slam in Triple-A. The bad news? That’s the first notable thing he’s done with a bat in like 18 months.
30

40

63

39.9

37.2

37.6

.376

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Sure, the prospects were nice, but the real reason the Giants traded Eduardo Nunez was to open up playing time for Conor Gillaspie. We are getting close to October, after all.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


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