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Prospectus Hit List for April 27



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for April 24
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Lots of changes at the top and the free-falling Royals sink all the way to the bottom.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

12

7

12.9

13.9

13.5

.589

.594

20.1%

18.4%

38.5%

3.8%

0.7%

Aaron Judge celebrated his 25th birthday by hitting a home run, making a spectacular catch at Fenway Park and crushing Oberyn Martell’s skull in his hands.
2

14

7

12.2

12.3

12.1

.586

.591

73.2%

14.7%

87.9%

-1.3%

1.3%

Carlos Beltran turned 40 earlier this week, but he doesn’t look a day over 62.
3

15

6

12.6

13.4

13.5

.592

.587

69.1%

14.4%

83.5%

2.6%

17.9%

Both Trea Turner and Wil Myers have hit for the cycle so far this season. Your move, Joe Ross and/or Steven Souza.
4

12

9

12.5

12.8

12.5

.585

.581

80.6%

8.7%

89.3%

-1.8%

3.9%

Jon Lester won’t pitch during Chicago’s first interleague trip to Fenway since 2014, in a touching tribute to David Price.
5

11

9

10.8

12.1

12.0

.573

.578

75.0%

10.5%

85.5%

2.2%

4.4%

Austin Jackson said he’s “feeling like [himself] again” after his first homer since 2015, so it’s pretty clear he has no idea what that phrase means.
6

10

12

12.3

12.9

13.3

.574

.570

64.1%

20.1%

84.2%

-1.7%

-4.0%

“Romo’s hiccup opens door for Giants walkoff,” reads the MLB.com headline that means something a lot different than it used to.
7

11

9

10.1

10.5

10.3

.533

.538

46.0%

19.1%

65.1%

-2.7%

-4.3%

The Red Sox have had some tough injury luck in the early going. Thankfully their top-ranked farm system is chock-full of adequate replaceme ... oh. Oh, that’s right.
8

11

12

11.9

12.8

13.7

.526

.531

17.5%

17.9%

35.5%

-4.2%

-3.6%

Tampa Bay’s bullpen was impressive on Tuesday night, holding the Orioles to just two hits in a nine-inning outing. Somehow Joe Maddon will receive credit for it.
9

14

9

14.0

12.5

11.8

.531

.526

13.6%

25.7%

39.2%

-3.4%

4.3%

Isn’t having Zack Godley pitch against the Padres a bit of a conflict of interest?
10

14

8

11.4

12.5

12.3

.528

.523

12.6%

23.6%

36.2%

-4.7%

8.3%

Ian Desmond took batting practice for the first time since fracturing his hand in spring training, meaning he’s perfectly timing his return to coincide with the Rockies’ inevitable fall back to earth. At least it won't hurt as much, what with the elevation and all.
11

10

12

12.2

10.3

10.0

.506

.511

12.5%

23.6%

36.1%

3.6%

7.1%

Adrian Beltre still hasn’t recovered from his calf injury. There’s no joke here. It just sucks.
12

14

6

11.1

9.5

9.6

.505

.510

12.1%

13.6%

25.7%

2.9%

7.5%

By my unofficial count, the Orioles have already rostered 153 different relievers this season. They go through arms at a pace that would make the Skywalkers blush.
13

9

13

11.3

10.9

11.1

.501

.506

9.2%

19.8%

29.0%

2.5%

-8.3%

Both Felix Hernandez and Mitch Haniger hit the 10-day DL on Wednesday, proving that both the Mariners’ old guard and new guard are committed to disappointing this season.
14

10

9

10.4

10.2

10.0

.506

.501

7.6%

14.6%

22.2%

-2.1%

0.1%

Derek Jeter and Jeb Bush are conspiring to buy the Marlins, and now I know what Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert felt like during the Glenn Beck era. It’s almost too easy.
15

10

11

10.5

10.8

10.4

.490

.495

5.7%

13.0%

18.8%

-2.4%

-3.2%

Byron Buxton has been so bad at laying off breaking stuff this season he’s ruined any chance he had at becoming an ESPN senior leader.
16

11

9

11.5

9.3

9.7

.487

.492

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

-0.1%

2.3%

Is Avisail Garcia the slowest player to be consistently labeled as a five-tool asset? Is anyone else even close?
17

12

11

13.1

11.3

11.3

.495

.490

5.2%

11.2%

16.4%

1.7%

-0.4%

Eric Thames is receiving all the attention, but don’t sleep on his teammate Ryan Braun. Milwaukee’s little-known left fielder is hitting .282/.378/.592 with six homers, four steals and six douchey shirts.
18

10

11

8.8

11.7

11.1

.481

.486

2.1%

6.4%

8.5%

-2.0%

-0.9%

I wonder if NFL reporters would be so quick to praise the “Moneyball” Browns if they realized Jaff Decker is starting in center field for the A’s.
19

11

9

8.9

8.7

8.6

.480

.485

14.5%

18.3%

32.8%

-3.8%

2.0%

The Tigers scored 19 runs without Miguel Cabrera or J.D. Martinez on Tuesday in the ultimate Ewing Theory game.
20

10

9

10.5

9.8

10.1

.487

.482

2.6%

5.3%

7.9%

0.7%

4.3%

The 2017 NFL Draft kicks off in Philadelphia tonight, giving Phillies fans the chance to be disappointed by another sport for a nice change of pace.
21

8

12

9.0

8.1

8.3

.480

.475

18.9%

21.8%

40.7%

-2.9%

-19.6%

Remember when Mets fans wanted to jettison Jay Bruce? He’s leading the team in hits, home runs, RBI, walks, and in not being injured.
22

10

12

10.8

11.2

11.1

.472

.467

1.8%

4.7%

6.5%

-0.2%

-4.0%

The Reds have given up the third-most homers in the majors (31), but 29 of them have been to Eric Thames, give or take a few.
23

11

12

9.8

9.2

9.2

.452

.457

3.0%

8.0%

11.1%

0.8%

0.7%

By adding David Hernandez to a bullpen that should include Huston Street and Andrew Bailey, the Angels are looking like they could have 2012’s most formidable group of relievers.
24

8

14

8.8

8.4

8.9

.462

.457

9.6%

21.4%

31.0%

5.8%

-9.6%

Why don’t they make the entire plane out of Ty Blach’s plate appearances against Clayton Kershaw?
25

9

11

8.4

8.5

9.0

.459

.454

5.4%

10.7%

16.0%

1.1%

3.1%

The Cardinals entered Wednesday tied for the major league lead in errors with 19, which is weird when you consider that pretty much their entire infield is made up of former second basemen.
26

9

12

7.5

8.1

8.7

.447

.442

7.0%

12.7%

19.7%

3.3%

-0.6%

There are college brochure covers that are less diverse than the Pirates roster. They added MLB’s first South African, Gift Ngoepe, and MLB’s first Lithuania, Dovydas Neverauskas, this week.
27

7

12

8.0

8.8

8.6

.445

.440

1.8%

4.2%

6.0%

1.4%

-3.1%

If Julio Teheran only pitched against the Mets we’d be talking about his plaque in Cooperstown. The righty owns a 0.72 ERA against New York in his last seven starts.
28

6

14

8.1

7.5

7.5

.432

.437

4.2%

7.3%

11.6%

1.1%

1.1%

By heroically leaping over Yadier Molina to score on a close play at the plate, Chris Coghlan proved once and for all that he really does hate Akinori Iwamura. Yes, this is a reference to 2009.
29

9

14

7.6

8.6

8.4

.398

.393

0.2%

1.0%

1.2%

0.2%

-0.5%

“Is [Cory] Spangenberg the answer at 3B, LF?” asks the saddest, most rhetorical Padres.com headline of all time.
30

7

14

6.4

6.7

7.0

.385

.389

0.8%

1.3%

2.0%

-0.3%

-6.7%

The Royals have scored the fewest runs in baseball and have lost seven straight. If PECOTA had a Twitter account it’d be posting the Kermit sipping tea meme.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
dodgerdan

Right on! comment about Maddon getting credit for Rays' bullpen success. He is one smuggggg S>O>B>

Apr 27, 2017 09:28 AM
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mockcarr

C'mon, you don't think Texas rangers know about calf injuries? They just need to get a long little dugout while Beltre is out.

Apr 27, 2017 13:11 PM
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