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Prospectus Hit List for June 22



by Ben Carsley

Hit List for June 19
Hit List updates are published Monday and Thursday through the 2017 season. Data is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

For some reason, it always seems like the Mets should be lower.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

49

24

48.2

50.0

49.3

.673

.677

99.0%

0.9%

99.9%

0.0%

0.4%

That’s nine straight victories in Oakland for the Astros. They own the A’s so hard even Marshawn Lynch respects them.
2

47

26

49.0

48.4

48.2

.659

.655

79.5%

20.4%

99.9%

0.1%

0.4%

Here’s How Millennials Are Killing Adrian Gonzalez’s Job Security.
3

39

30

44.7

47.8

46.9

.646

.651

47.1%

31.3%

78.3%

2.6%

-7.8%

“That’s what we have,” Joe Girardi replied when asked about continuing to play Chris Carter at first base. Cersei Lannister thinks that’s a little cold.
4

45

27

46.0

44.7

43.4

.622

.617

10.3%

81.0%

91.3%

2.5%

7.5%

The D-Backs became the first team since the 2005 Phillies to score 10 runs in one inning on the road yesterday. It’s an incredible stat mostly because it reminds you that the Phillies used to be good.
5

43

29

43.3

44.6

42.4

.602

.597

96.5%

0.5%

97.0%

-0.4%

2.4%

The Nationals’ late-inning troubles are so severe that even Max Scherzer has started blowing leads in the eighth.
6

38

32

40.6

43.0

43.1

.588

.593

87.5%

4.8%

92.3%

1.3%

16.9%

It will never stop being funny to me that the “Indians” play at “Progressive Field.”
7

47

27

43.4

41.8

42.0

.588

.583

10.2%

82.6%

92.8%

-1.4%

7.5%

Jeff Hoffman certainly had a rocky outing in Coors. Do ... do you get it?
8

39

36

39.4

41.9

42.8

.544

.549

12.4%

32.0%

44.4%

4.4%

7.5%

Trevor Plouffe is somehow both the most A’s player and the most Rays player, so that trade makes a lot of sense.
9

40

32

39.1

38.2

37.5

.538

.543

36.7%

33.8%

70.5%

-3.5%

-3.9%

“I’m a changed man,” John Farrell told you in May as he was using Craig Kimbrel in the eighth inning. But now it’s June and he’s being distant and you catch him reading TRADITIONAL BULLPEN USAGE 101 under the covers with a flashlight once more.
10

36

35

37.2

38.2

37.6

.525

.520

58.7%

3.4%

62.1%

-7.5%

2.7%

Folks, the last time a Rizzo was sliding dirty like this Sandra Dee was being barred from the Pink Ladies.
11

37

37

36.5

36.0

36.8

.494

.499

0.4%

25.5%

25.9%

0.8%

0.2%

Jarrod Dyson feels the same way about unwritten rules as DJT feels about written rules, apparently.
12

33

37

34.2

35.6

36.1

.496

.491

14.8%

2.5%

17.3%

4.1%

-1.2%

Anti-bullying legislation began in earnest in this country nearly two decades ago, so the Cardinals are in trouble if the wrong people notice they beat the Phillies in extra innings in back-to-back games.
13

37

38

37.3

35.3

35.9

.485

.490

0.0%

6.1%

6.1%

-3.1%

-4.6%

Doug Fister clearly isn’t a big fan of the bible, what with him opting out of a contract with the Angels and all ...
14

39

35

37.7

34.8

34.4

.493

.488

21.4%

3.8%

25.3%

4.1%

-4.6%

Congrats to Orlando Arcia, who became the best closer in Brewers history by making a spectacular play on a grounder to close out yesterday’s game against the Pirates.
15

31

39

35.0

34.1

34.1

.479

.484

0.7%

2.0%

2.7%

-1.3%

0.2%

“Quintana aims to break through against Twins” reads the WhiteSox.com headline that I suppose puts him on Team Targaryen, per the latest trailer.
16

35

36

33.5

33.6

33.7

.478

.483

2.9%

11.2%

14.1%

1.7%

-0.2%

Sure, batting Jose Bautista leadoff makes sense, but John Gibbons could bat a blind dog leadoff and the Jays would still find a way to beat Texas.
17

32

38

34.0

35.3

35.4

.488

.483

2.0%

2.7%

4.7%

0.9%

-1.0%

The Marlins sure have been great against Washington since Jeb Bush dropped out of talks to buy them ...
18

35

36

37.0

31.7

31.8

.477

.482

0.5%

21.2%

21.7%

-2.4%

1.2%

Joey Gallo hitting an inside-the-park homerun makes me feel the same way I feel when star athletes win cars at All-Star Games. Really, universe? That’s who needed that break?
19

36

33

30.6

31.4

31.8

.471

.476

7.1%

15.8%

22.9%

1.6%

-5.3%

By law the Twins only get two exciting pitchers per decade, so congrats to Jose Berrios on inheriting that title from early career Francisco Liriano.
20

32

39

33.9

33.2

33.3

.467

.471

2.2%

4.1%

6.3%

-0.9%

-6.3%

It’s ok, Justin Verlander. Statistically, most starts end up being blown perfect games.
21

35

36

31.8

30.3

32.6

.456

.461

2.5%

5.2%

7.7%

0.9%

2.2%

It is a testament to the Royals’ resiliency that they’ve battled all the way back to just one game under .500, and it’s a testament to the Indians’ lethargy that Kansas City is now only three games back in the AL Central.
22

33

38

32.5

34.1

32.1

.464

.459

0.6%

0.8%

1.3%

-0.0%

-0.4%

COPPY: “Listen, Freddie, moving from first to third base isn’t even a challenge. Tell ‘em, Wash.” WASH: “Oh for f***s sake are you ***ing ... I mean c’mon now.”
23

33

39

32.7

32.3

33.0

.455

.450

4.6%

0.8%

5.3%

-1.4%

-2.1%

“Pirates come to terms with 11 draft picks” reads the Pirates.com headline that makes it sound like they’re not very enthused by their recent haul.
24

30

41

32.7

33.3

32.5

.452

.447

0.5%

0.2%

0.7%

-0.2%

-0.8%

Reds starters have a 6.12 ERA on the season. You might not be conditioned to think of Homer Bailey as a savior, but ...
25

31

41

27.9

32.1

34.1

.434

.439

0.0%

2.1%

2.1%

-0.2%

0.5%

The A’s recently installed a bird kite to keep seagulls away, but don’t get attached. Odds are they’ll just need to trade it for a younger kite in three or four years anyway.
26

35

36

29.7

26.5

29.0

.423

.428

0.9%

4.2%

5.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

“Britton feels good day after first rehab outing” that is an Orioles.com headline but could also be a BBC.com headline about Jeremy Corbyn.
27

31

40

30.8

28.8

28.4

.419

.414

1.0%

1.3%

2.3%

-0.8%

-9.4%

At this point we need Ron Howard on call to quickly weigh in whenever Terry Collins speaks about anyone’s health.
28

29

44

24.4

27.9

29.5

.379

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Koji Uehara walking Luis Torrens to force in a run might seem crazy, but it wasn’t even the wildest offensive feat the Padres pulled off yesterday: Erick Aybar hit a homerun!
29

27

47

27.5

26.9

28.1

.370

.365

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.9%

Sure, Mark Melancon has a 4.82 ERA and has already blown four saves, but at least there are only three years and $50 million-plus left on his deal!
30

22

48

25.1

23.9

24.4

.340

.336

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

Jeremey Hellickson’s quality start on Tuesady was his sixth of the year, which means the Phillies are on pace to pay him about $1.5 million for each he earns this season.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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1 comment has been left for this article.
tearecrules

Is there a missing qualifier in number 4? The Astros scored 11 in one inning in Minnesota just last month.

Jun 22, 2017 07:16 AM
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